Record Cold Over Western Europe, What About That Warmth?

Written by Mark Vogan on May 24, 2013 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Glenshee Ski Centre on May 23rd (Courtesy of Mark Vogan)

The cold of the past few days has been very impressive for this late in May. According to Iceage Now, yesterday was the coldest May 23rd on record in the Netherlands. Brussels, Belgium didn’t get above 9C which was the coldest for that date on record and today it was even colder with a high of just 8.7C, beating the old record for May 24 of 10.6C set in 1824 according to my twitter friend Wassim Cornet. Parts of northern France really struggled also.Yesterday I decided late on to take a trip up to Braemar in the Grampians to see what the snow conditions were like given that two roads were forced to close due to the snow. They were the A93 and A939. Both routes often close in winter but we’re a week away from June.

When I fuelled up my car it was weird seeing snow flakes flying and the dash reading just 3C. Think that was the latest date i’ve seen it snow. The wind by the way up over Cairnwell Pass was wild. I mean there was a full fledge gale blowing straight from the north. Driving pure arctic air down over Britain. Very impressive.

While the North brightened and warmed up today, the cold upper low spinning over SE England held temperatures at 6 or 7C through much of this afternoon. Now that is amazing given that these folks saw strong winds and those sorts of temperatures on May 24. Those readings would be more suited to January!

Fresh snow was not just confined to Scotland and an odd spot in other areas but we also saw a fresh few inches over parts of the Alps, perhaps even northern Spain.

Below is the GFS 5,000ft temperatures for tonight and as you can see, there is plenty of cold air within the upper low over southern Britain.

Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro

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The weekend is looking much better as the low slowing drifts further south allowing winds to slacken with ridging building over top with warming 5,000ft temperatures.

Even today, temperatures got up to 15C over parts of Scotland and it was thanks to the low ‘cutting off’ and loosing the arctic connection. The low retained some of the cold it had tapped and thus held temperatures to unusually low levels over parts of England.

The departing cut off low and the ridge building in sets the stage for a bright or sunny weekend ahead for most areas. Expect temperatures to respond nicely with a potential 17 or 18C in the Central Belt, maybe 21C over sheltered parts of the Highlands and widely 15-17C across much of England, Wales and Ireland/Northern Ireland.

Nights however will get cold, unusually so for this late. We could see rural parts hit freezing while some Highland Glens hitting -2 or -3C over the next couple of nights before more unsettled weather returns Sunday into Monday

As for early and mid next week, wet and windy conditions return to all, except for eastern England Monday.

Interestingly, the ECMWF is starting to hint at possible ridging and warmer air trying to build into the UK from the south late next week into the weekend. This would coincide with my ideas of warmth trying to build in response to the NAO going positive as is shown by the models into early June.

Thu 30th

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_144

Fri 31st

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_168

Sun 2nd

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_216

Mon 3rd

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_Europe_240

I have been hinting at potential warmth in early June for a while now based the the NAO going more positive. The question is whether we can hold onto the positive trend. So far the trend has been well and truely negative with any positive quickly getting lost. It would be pure wishcasting on my part if I was to say that June will see a mainly positive NAO, however I believe it’s only a matter of time before we get a true spike and that may come later on down the road perhaps into July.

Let’s see what happens over the next 7 days or so and whether we get some warmth returning as we end May and commence June.

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