Archive for 2024
December and the first of the three meteorological winter months has been mild for Ireland, UK and much of Europe. Europe temp anomaly through 24th December. One of the warmest December’s over the higher lats of Eurasia, North America but also note the chill across N Africa, Middle East and mid lat Asia. The rest […]
A quite amazing November draws to an end. For UK, from warmest, driest first half to the month to significantly colder 2nd half which has made for a near average and for some, colder than average month. Europe has seen wild swings too with Iceland perhaps witnessing the most outrageous of all followed closely by […]
Welcome to my 15th consecutive European winter forecast. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the upcoming 90-day meteorological winter period will be based on current climate and climate drivers at play including current global SST profile, ENSO, Solar & much more! An important factor to consider is the level of warmth in our oceans, […]
October 2024 will go down as warmer than average for UK, Ireland and Europe as a whole. Near average UK rainfall with the usual regional variability. For Europe, considerably drier than average while others, record wet. MET OFFICE: An average October comes to a close Big AO/NAO Flip! It’s been a month with big swings […]
As we progress through October, the various teleconnections we look at for winter prediction becomes more important and interesting. So what do we look for? Teleconnection / Current Status Equatorial Pacific (Neutral-La Nina) North Pacific SST Profile (-PDO) North Atlantic SST (+AMO) Indian Ocean SST (Neutral IOD) QBO (west) Behavior of the MJO Siberian snow […]
September has been a crazy month with big temperature swings and historic rain/flood events for UK as well as Europe. From record +NAO in August to record -NAO in September with unusually strong blocking over Greenland has had a lot to do with how extreme this month has been. According to World Climate Service, based […]
UPDATED 5 SEPT, 2024 Re-Analysis Connecting Last Winter-Summer-Winter Ahead Based on NINO Transitions & Delayed Response In order to improve long range seasonal forecasts, we must look back at what’s happened and learn from mistakes. When analysing last winter, we transitioned from La Nina (3 years in a row) to El Nino. SST’s in the […]
Summer 2024 will go down as a disappointment for Northwest Europe and hottest on record for Southeast Europe and for that matter, most of the continent east of Germany. While the west of the continent observed fluctuation as the season progressed (trough replaced by ridge), the east remained on the hot side throughout. Summer got […]
It’s been a summer of pattern persistence with the late spring shaping June and July. The North Atlantic’s warming off Newfoundland and cooling off Ireland with no outside forcing to disrupt has provided a cool and often unsettled west Europe vs hot, dry east Europe with stormy in between. 500mb geopotential height anomaly 1 May […]
The first half of June 2024 witnessed a very marked NW to SE contrast across the continent. The continuation of a highly blocked hemispheric wave 7 pattern led to a frequent southward push of arctic air initially over the UK and Ireland but with time through France, Spain and Portugal. Meanwhile unusually hot air (for […]
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