October 2024 will go down as warmer than average for UK, Ireland and Europe as a whole.

Near average UK rainfall with the usual regional variability.

For Europe, considerably drier than average while others, record wet.

MET OFFICE: An average October comes to a close

Big AO/NAO Flip!

It’s been a month with big swings in the AO/NAO. The first 10 days were cold with significant negative indexes while the final 10 days warm and extremely positive indexes.

The various cold to warm phases of the MJO have nicely matched the AO/NAO.

Overall, we’ve had a pretty blocky first 2 of 3 autumn months.

This has resulted in a near average UK and warmer Europe past 60 days.

October Europe Highlights

Tweets via Thierry Goose, Milos Milic, Maximiliano Herrera

14th Oct: Unusually hot conditions for Balearic Islands with places near 35C.

15th Oct: Extremely high temperatures in SE #France today

33.2°C in Corsica. That’s record levels for mid-October anywhere in the country.

16th Oct: Exceptionally low temperatures in #Iceland !

-18.6°C Grímsstaðir [384 m], only 0.7°C from the October national record set at the same place in 1926 [if I’m not wrong]. 3rd Tmin < -15°C in a row! -5.6°C Reykjavik [52 m], near record cold so early in the month!

18th Oct: Highest rainfalls in 48 h in #France.

866.2 mm Borne/La Croix de Bauzon

721.6 mm Vialas

688.3 mm Mayres

686.5 mm Loubaresse

657.3 mm Usclades-et-Rieutord

604.4 mm Saint-Maurice-de-Ventalon

588.5 mm Barnas

573.0 mm Mazan-l’Abbaye

566.3 mm Sainte-Eulalie 561.8 mm Villefort

22nd Oct: Impressive Diurnal swing in Serbia

Sjenica from -5°C to 22°C Karajukić Bunari from -6°C to 19°C Ćuprija from 0°C to 23°C

and Montenegro

Kosanica from -8°C to 20°C Njegovuđa from -4°C to 18°C Pljevlja from 0°C to 22°C

26th Oct: Exceptional rainfall intensity during a storm in #Vidauban (83), SE #France.

25.4 mm/5 min Top 3 France

29.9 mm/6 min Top 5

64.7 mm/15 min Top 2

101.3 mm/30 min French record!

119.0 mm/60 min Top 19

30th Oct: 630.6 mm of rain fell yesterday in Turís [ @avamet network], just south of #Chiva, #Valencia Province. 

491.2 mm in 8 hours! More than a normal YEAR of rain! 343 mm in only 4 hours!

October 2024 Monthly Weather Report

UK Met Office October 2024 Stats

Highest Maximum 22.5°C on 16th at London, St James’s Park (Greater London, 5mAMSL)
Lowest Maximum 5.6°C on 13th at Braemar No 2 (Aberdeenshire, 327mAMSL)
Highest Minimum 15.8°C on 16th at Bude (Cornwall, 15mAMSL)
Lowest Minimum -4.1°C on 3rd at Braemar No 2 (Aberdeenshire, 327mAMSL)
also on 14th at Aboyne No 2 (Aberdeenshire, 140mAMSL)
Lowest Grass
Minimum
-7.5°C on 14th at Copley (Durham, 253mAMSL) and Tealing (Angus, 117mAMSL)
also on 15th at Tealing (Angus, 117mAMSL)
Most Rainfall 74.2mm on 27th at Ulpha, Duddon W Wks (Cumbria, 77mAMSL)
Most Sunshine 10.6hr on 3rd at Exeter Airport No 2 (Devon, 27mAMSL)
Highest Gust 71Kt 82mph on 20th at Aberdaron (Gwynedd, 86mAMSL)
Highest Gust
(mountain*) 105Kt 121mph on 20th at Cairngorm Summit (Inverness-shire, 1237mAMSL)
Greatest Snow
Depth at 0900
UTC
No non-zero values.

My October Stats

Mild, Dry Theme to End October Likely Continues Through (At Least) First Half of November!

With high pressure firmly established over Europe to end October, I’m confident this setup holds firm through at least the first 10 days of November, perhaps longer. This (I believe) is a legacy of a strengthening phase 5 into 6 MJO.

Where we are now, is strikingly similar to early and mid September in both 500mb pattern and MJO position and amplitude.

Strong blocking HP with trapped cut off lows underneath led to the extreme central Europe rainfall and flood event mid-September. We’ve seen almost the same situation develop recently over the Valencia area of Spain, arguably even worse with a YEAR’S WORTH of rain falling in just 8 hours.

While the core of the high waxes and wanes and shifts around through the next week or so, it’s presence will provide a dominant dry theme unseen in NW Europe for probably 12+months.

Position will be key to average, above or below average temperatures.

Interesting to see how the CFSv2 holds the hemisphere’s strongest blocking high pretty much bang slap over the West of Europe through mid November then it retreats south with low returning to Iceland for week 3 and 4.

This suggests a mild and likely dry November overall with NO amplified phases 7-8-1 MJO response. The fly in the ointment if this holds true is the odd ‘lack of movement’ from the Euro high.

ECMWF as I suspect, will head back through phases 2-3 then 4-5 next 20 days, perhaps a mild, dry first half and more unsettled, possibly stormy (at times) 2nd half to the month?

While I guess I’m swaying more mild and less cold from the favorable MJO currently, I still feel there’s opportunity for something colder (perhaps Scandi and or Greenland block) between 10-20th November in response to the current MJO rotation but that window is closing based on pretty much cross model agreement and the reluctance for both AO and NAO to go negative.

GFS ensemble refuses to have both AO/NAO going below neutral.

Check out the ECMWF 30-day. Note the strength of the ridge parked over the UK!

Another factor screaming out mild +AO/NAO signal later down the road (early-mid Dec) is the GFS suggests the core of the stratospheric polar vortex will cool to a likely record (for time of year) -85C by 9th Nov.

Strengthening colder than average signal through next 11 days according to GFS ens.

The GFS ensemble also sees the lower stratosphere nearest the troposphere loosing positive heights, another indicator for and increasingly strong vortex and firmly +AO/NAO pattern.

Initial

Day 7

Day 10

The ECMWF sees the mean zonal wind accelerating beyond mid November, perhaps approaching record strong ending Nov, beginning Dec after suspiciously decelerating over the next week or so (another reason I think a spell of blocking and colder weather is still on the table).

CFSv2 for November suggests some higher heights over the pole and an overall blocky look.

Drier than average looks likely.

and warmer.

November’s Verdict?

Mild, Dry first half, Colder, Wetter 2nd half but Average to Slightly Above Average temperatures Overall for UK and Ireland, Colder than average far east and southeast of Europe…

Potential for a couple of named storms also…

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Sryan Bruen Photography 

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