June has very much followed in May’s footsteps across Europe including the UK/Ireland with distinct tale of two halves. Cool, wet 1st half followed by warm, dry 2nd half with blistering heatwave to finish. A repeating pattern which may well show up a 3rd consecutive month with potential for a 3rd heatwave on steroids… Cool […]
Welcome to my 16th annual UK/Europe summer forecast. As always, when compiling this forecast for the upcoming June-August period there are multiple factors which are taken into consideration. They include the past winter pattern, type of spring just observed as well as the current ENSO state, global and regional sea surface temperature anomalies etc. THE BIGGEST FACTOR […]
May has been a month of extremes with warm start, cool middle (coolest since 2010) followed by arguably one of Britain and Ireland’s most exceptional heatwaves. Just a week ago, it was running firmly below average, now, like March and April, warmer than average to complete a firmly warmer than average spring of 2026. As […]
Key Factors First of all let’s see what’s considered normal. Tropical Cyclone Climatology Number Named systems Hurricanes Major Hurricanes 1 Jun 20 Aug 11 Sep 1 2 Jul 17 Aug 26 Sep 19 3 Aug 3 Sep 7 Oct 28 4 Aug 15 Sep 16 – 5 Aug 22 Sep 28 – 6 Aug 29 […]
May 2026 shall open warm and sunny with widespread low 20s up and down the British Isles with even warm into France and Iberia while it’s wintry on the opposite end of the continent. 26/27C possible in SE England Friday. However, this warm and dry West/cold, wet East contrast looks to quickly even itself out […]
June has very much followed in May’s footsteps across Europe including the UK/Ireland with distinct tale of two halves. Cool, wet 1st half followed by warm, dry 2nd half with blistering heatwave to finish. A repeating pattern which may well show up a 3rd consecutive month with potential for a 3rd heatwave on steroids… Cool […]
The westerlies continued on from mid January through much of February as well as March, reflected nicely with a persistent +AO/NAO. Warmer than average has been the rule but not without a chillier end to the month as per my March Outlook. From late winter to early spring, rainfall distribution returned to a typical climatalogical […]
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