Key Factors
- Strong developing El Nino
- Warmer-than-normal Western/cooler Eastern Tropical Atlantic
- Focus of rising air over Pacific, More shear/subsidence over Atlantic (El Nino)
First of all let’s see what’s considered normal.
| Number | Named systems | Hurricanes | Major Hurricanes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 20 | Aug 11 | Sep 1 |
| 2 | Jul 17 | Aug 26 | Sep 19 |
| 3 | Aug 3 | Sep 7 | Oct 28 |
| 4 | Aug 15 | Sep 16 | – |
| 5 | Aug 22 | Sep 28 | – |
| 6 | Aug 29 | Oct 15 | – |
| 7 | Sep 3 | Nov 15 | – |
| 8 | Sep 9 | – | – |
| 9 | Sep 16 | – | – |
| 10 | Sep 22 | – | – |
| 11 | Oct 2 | – | – |
| 12 | Oct 11 | – | – |
| 13 | Oct 25 | – | – |
| 14 | Nov 19 | – | – |
The overwhelming driver this season will be El Nino.
Here’s the NMME forecasted SST’s for Jul-Sep and Aug-Oct.
There’s a strong El Nino signature but tropical Atlantic is slightly warmer than average, esp towards Caribbean and Gulf while average to below nearer Africa.
With the exception of 2023 which was very much an exception, most El Nino years, especially strong ones, lead to lower overall numbers in the Atlantic while higher in Pacific as the below graphic nicely shows.
The reason is quite simple, strong rising motion over the warm Pacific and as a consequence, that results in sinking over the Atlantic as well as an increase in low level easterlies and upper level westerlies. The atmosphere over the Atlantic is a response to what’s happening in the Pacific which creates a more hostile environment for development.
There also tends to be less AEW’s or African Easterly Waves which come off Africa and waters in the eastern portion of the trop Atl looks cool, whether it stays that way remains to be seen but the models suggest this region doesn’t really heat up much as the season progresses.
Here’s the most recent ECMWF seasonal for MSLP for the July-Sept and Aug-Oct period.
Notice above average MSLP while below average in Pacific. That’s what you would expect in a strong El Nino season. Increased numbers in both east and west/central Pacific, reduced numbers in Atlantic.
What about the planetary scale rising/sinking or MJO position?
While there will be some eastward progression through the season with chances of ‘increased potential for development’ at times, the 3-month average very much coincides with a strong El Nino atmosphere.
As for precip anomaly.
While the bigger picture points to a weaker season in the Atlantic, there are exceptions and we’re likely to see upturns in activity at times despite a quieter overall season. Those upturns could and likely will threaten landfalls with increased risk for both coasts of Mexico, Caribbean and Central America with a couple storm and hurricane hits possible for US.
Mid Season Oddities: Could We See Opposite in ’26 Compared to Past 2 Years?
Warm waters and lesser shear north of the MDR means storms, like in recent years development outwith the true tropical belt. We’ve observed funky ‘heart of the season’ quiet spells with an unusually far north ITCZ, periods of high dust concentrations unusually late into the season and unusual stability etc. These odd lulls in the past two seasons seem to have coincided with particularly hot spells over the northern land masses.
Early Development?
As for this year, it wouldn’t actually surprise me if we got an active period early/mid June with 2/3 developments thanks to MJO over Central America & formation of a CAG…
Followed by a lengthy lull but a non El Nino-like spell (uptick) of activity in July, early August due to a warm western Atlantic, perhaps MJO pulse along with reduced shear, especially north of the MDR. We could see a few ‘further north’ developments over the western basin this year.
While numbers are likely to be below average, I wouldn’t be at all surprised given how much warmer things are that we get a couple of strong hurricanes and possibly landfalls within the Caribbean, Gulf region this season and higher numbers than many agencies expect.
MY NUMBERS FOR THE 2026 SEASON
TOTAL STORMS: 12-13 (avg 14.4)
HURRICANES: 4-5 (avg 7.2)
MAJORS: 2-3 (avg 3.2)
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