>This post has now been updated!

Ok, the snows are periodically cranking and becoming heavy, riding a 5-10mph east wind, making the 30 degree air as well as snow flakes getting into your eyes making for a miserable night to be out in.

Difficulties in forecasting snow

My question is, how much will this system bring? I predicted a good chance at 1-2 inches, however I did write in my 5pm update of a chance of getting 2-4 inches but I actually removed this because in the past I have written stuff like that and got burned for over doing it with the snow.. This time around in this update I shall say that 2-4 is highly possible and even an outside chance at receiving as much as 6 inches by morning. At the rate it’s falling now and with a steady wind and air temperature around 30 degrees, we have a chance at seeing 6 inches on the ground but I will say a 20% chance of that much but 60% chance of between 2-4.

I don’t know exactly how much is falling across Glasgow so I can’t say with too much confidence how much the city will get, it can vary by a few inches in such short distance.

1) warmer environment within a city or town.
2) changing temperature through the lower atmosphere
3) elevation or terrain variations
4) wind changes

There is so many things that can alter or vary snow totals.

The availabilty of moisture is another big factor.

So I do sympathize with the forecasters out there that are truely making their own forecast for an area how difficult at times forecasting snow for any given area can be.

I will say this much, Glasgow may see 2-4 out of this.

How long will this snow stick around for?
Warmth tomorrow and days ahead

By checking out the Glasgow forecast from the BBC this evening and throughout the course of today. I am not convinced Glasgow will see low 40s tomorrow. I believe 40s by day and upper 30s by night is too warm and with the most snow on the ground this winter by morning (over 3-4 inches on Christmas Eve was the maximum snow depth for this site) the numbers aren’t reflecting the fact we’ll have snow covering a large portion of central Scotland tomorrow.

Highs tomorrow may see around 38 degrees here and lows may run down to around 32-34 degrees if there’s a lot of cloud around, if there’s clearing at all, we’ll drop into the 20s. Those numbers are with consideration to Atlantic air in place and driving in off the Atlantic but as of this writing and through today we’ve had Arctic air overhead, not Atlantic…

Cold Wave in the 7-10 range?

It appears we’re going to see continued “blocking” over Greenland and that means a likehood of continued cold here, though I see, friend and meteorologist Joe Bastardi (AccuWeather) is hinting at a coldwave heading in the next week to 10 day range. Will this be the deeper cold I have been hinting at during the mid point of January? More on that later.

THURSDAY EVENING UPDATE: NOW A STRONG ATLANTIC PUSH REGAINS GROUND OVER SCOTTISH AIRSPACE TODAY

It appears the uniform snow total leveled off at 2″ across a broad area bringing poor road conditions and a decent covering but this is a sobering reminder to me and others about forecasting how much snow will fall. When I looked out last night and there had already been close to 2″ lying on the ground and it was blowing an east wind and still snowing, I thought, oh we might just ring out between 2-4 inches, unfortunately, the snow tapered off and I was within the correct amount but right on the low end.

What is happening with persistency in “wanting to snow” even with an overall mild pattern really, the Arctic air is too close to call us truely “mild” as it remains strong over the Highlands of Scotland and only takes a sliver to push into the central belt at the same time some Atlantic moisture blows in out of the snowwest and bingo it’s snow rather than rain like we’d typically see.

The pattern is there and I am correct in this Atlantic verses Arctic fight for February and this is exactly why I believe a strong push of Atlantic air out of the southwest and a push or already”in-place” Arctic air, we’re possible at getting a 4-8 inch snowfall this month.

The winter and seasonal feedback isn’t allowing sustained cold like we saw earlier in the winter, but now that winter’s progressing, waters surrounding Britain are colder etc etc and even the jet overhead acts different through global fluctuations as the winter progresses, so to does the driving mechanisms of our weather.

Modeling suggest colder times here next week and if we manage to get snowcover before it we may see some subfreezing days and downright cold nights (teens). This has been so interesting at how I’m seeing it snow regularly but with an Atlantic flow! When does it ever snow with winds blowing off the Atlantic? This really has been a winter to remember, one that’s been absent of gales and really nasty, mild storminess we typically see. It’s snowed as much if not more this winter than it has rained! That’s quite impressive.

So, despite it now bare once again after a good 2″ snowbase this morning, 40 degree air and a blustery, mild SW wind, colder times are ahead folks and quite possibly the worst of Februarys cold may be approaching next week.

Stay tuned.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark