EUROPE WINTER 2026-27: October Update

Written by Mark Vogan on October 11, 2026 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

KEY DRIVERS

Record strong El Nino
Westerly QBO
Neutral to Positive IOD
Warm PDO
Warm AMO
Solar Max

UNCERTAINTIES

PolarVortex Strength?
Sudden Strat Warming?
MJO?
Eurasian Snowcover?
Barents-Kara Sea Ice??

Latest SSTA’s as of October 7th. Recently, a record 30C sea surface temperature was observed within Nino 3.4 for the first time in recorded history.

Matching up past years to current

While much of the attention is currently on the record strong El Nino and rightly so since it serves as our primary baseline, it’s not the only climate driver at play. Smaller secondary factors such as potential development of a sudden stratospheric warming (triggered by El Nino’s powerful upward energy transfer??) could either counter El Nino’s effects or be overpowered by them. So while a warm and stormy pattern remains the most likely outcome, these competing forces introduce more uncertainty into the forecast than it may seem at first glance.

Warmer World Makes Past Analogs Years Less Useful

Unprecedented ocean warmth has disrupted ocean winds and moisture transport making historical analog data far less reliable.

Lesser ocean temperature gradients have altered wind circulation therefore forcing previous teleconnections to behave differently from even the recent past and this makes future forecasting all the more challenging.

PDO Influence

The warm PDO with cool central N Pacific with warmer surrounding waters tends to work with El Nino to strengthen a zonal extended Asia-Pacific jet stream and storm activity into North America and ultimately drive warmth across much of Canada with cooler/wetter Southern US.

Warm AMO with cold blob?

A warm Atlantic with background drivers is likely to do 2 things, drive warmer & wetter air into Western Europe but that cold blob south of Greenland may also help sharpen and position the jet stream in a certain configuration especially early on. Record rainfall isn’t out of the question on par with December 2015.

Autumn Transition from Dry to Wet!

From my understanding and research, there’s a clear blocked pattern during Sept/Oct which temporarily provides stable conditions but eventually this breaks late Oct/Nov.

Warmest UK September’s (& Low Early Eurasia Snow) = Mild Winter?

While there’s no strong or definitive link between warm September’s coinciding with low Eurasia snow cover and the following winter, there are some loose connections in ocean-land atmospheric feedback which could suggest milder Atlantic dominance into early winter at the very least.

The UK just observed it’s 4th warmest September while Eurasia snow cover is low.

An attempt at matching past years to present. (Below chart probability isn’t perfect!)

Combining strength of El Nino, WQBO, Solar and not forgetting the warm oceans, it’s a pretty unique set of circumstances which mean anything is possible really.

Based Solely on SUPER EL NINO, What Do Winter’s Look Like For Europe?

Combing the past 3 and only 3 since 1950…

Overview

MJO?

The MJO is a teleconnection I love to use particularly in winter. You may have noticed less chat regarding the MJO of late and this is because strong El Nino’s tend to override the MJO’s influence and make it far less predictable and useful of a forecasting tool.

Could Strong El Nino Actually Offset Warm Atlantic & West QBO’s Influence?

WINTER WILDCARD: Polar Vortex?

To start, El Nino releases additional heat into the tropical atmosphere and combined with building cold over high latitudes sharpens the temperature gradient, increasing the strength of the jet stream and potential for wetter, stormier late autumn/early winter weather into Europe.

As the cold season progresses across the hemisphere, El Nino’s heat release sends powerful atmospheric waves to ripple their way around the planet. This wave energy can enter the stratosphere causing the polar vortex to weaken mid to late season. If those waves rippling their way through the polar stratosphere are strong enough, they can cause the stratosphere and polar vortex to compress and heat up.

Cold Risk When Combining Super El Nino, WQBO, Solar Max etc…

An early mild, wet pattern is common under a strong El Nino, while factors like the WQBO and low Arctic sea ice increase uncertainly later in the season by pushing towards a cold, blocked pattern.

However, past Super El Nino’s show strong historical precedent for mild weather persisting into late season.

During the super El Niño winters of 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16, the stratospheric polar vortex typically exhibited a two-phase behavior: it was often anomalously strong and cold in early winter (such as early winter 2015–16) before weakening significantly in late winter as upward-propagating planetary waves disrupted the circulation. Early spring of 2016 did produce an SSW but too late to effect winter.

Another WILDCARD: Barents-Kara Sea Ice & Atmospheric Response?

While considering all above factors…

What’s our pattern ‘Likely’ To Resemble 2026-7?

Snowfall Probability?

With milder, moister Atlantic flow comes reduced snow chances for most of low lying Europe while above normal with significant elevation from Pyrenees and Alps to Scandinavia, possibly Highland Scotland.