United Kingdom & Ireland
May 2026 will go down as one of the weirdest, wildest and perhaps most extreme month’s on record. From mild start, cold middle (coldest in 15 years) to arguably one of Western Europe’s most anomalous weather events. A heatwave which within the final 10 days flipped the month from coolest since January to one of […]
Welcome to my 16th annual UK/Europe summer forecast. As always, when compiling this forecast for the upcoming June-August period there are multiple factors which are taken into consideration. They include the past winter pattern, type of spring just observed as well as the current ENSO state, global and regional sea surface temperature anomalies etc. THE BIGGEST FACTOR […]
May has been a month of extremes with warm start, cool middle (coolest since 2010) followed by arguably one of Britain and Ireland’s most exceptional heatwaves. Just a week ago, it was running firmly below average, now, like March and April, warmer than average to complete a firmly warmer than average spring of 2026. As […]
For UK and Ireland, April 2026 was wet through 1st half, dry 2nd half and generally mild for all with decent warmth to end. Another warm one for west and north, cool, wet east of Europe. Global temp & precip anomaly for April 2026 Europe UK Stats/Highlights April showers in shorter supply, but sunshine plentiful […]
May 2026 shall open warm and sunny with widespread low 20s up and down the British Isles with even warm into France and Iberia while it’s wintry on the opposite end of the continent. 26/27C possible in SE England Friday. However, this warm and dry West/cold, wet East contrast looks to quickly even itself out […]
March and spring’s opening month was dominated by a strongly +AO/NAO with a deep trough stretching from Alaska to Greenland with strong ridging over North America & Europe. Unfortunately the below 500mb geopotential anomaly below only goes out to the 17th. The ridging over North America and eastern Europe was unusually strong and persistent… This […]
While Easter doesn’t fall on the same dates each year, we’ve witnessed all weather types and seasons with dates ranging from as early as March 22nd and as late as April 25th. Quite as few past Easter weekend’s have produced a little bit of everything given the high volatility ‘transition’ from winter to summer. The […]
The westerlies continued on from mid January through much of February as well as March, reflected nicely with a persistent +AO/NAO. Warmer than average has been the rule but not without a chillier end to the month as per my March Outlook. From late winter to early spring, rainfall distribution returned to a typical climatalogical […]
The pattern which carried through the back half of January largely continued in February with dominant westerlies. A distinct cool North, mild South for not only UK but Europe. Cold and dry Scandi & Baltic Region, exceptionally mild and wet France/Spain/Portugal. See February Recap! Is there any hints of change into the first month of […]
January was, like many recent months, a tale of two halves with cold first half followed by less cold 2nd half. I say less cold because it wasn’t entirely mild. Some days a little above, some a little below and many nearer average and that should make for a slightly colder than average following the […]
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