While all global drivers needs looked at when it comes to long range forecasting, there’s increasing confidence that the powerful El Nino of 2026 is likely to drive a particular global pattern and with particularly strong equatorial Pac warm events, the dice is loaded firmly towards a particular direction.
Below is the in-depth video of my Europe Winter 2026-27 September update and graphics shared in the video.
What autumn looked like during the previous 3 super El Nino’s.
Those 3 autumns combined broken down into 2 parts.
The winters which followed…
Little cold…
The Winter Patterns
- Winter 1982–1983: While the previous winter (1981–82) saw severe cold outbreaks in Europe, the Super El Niño winter of 82–83 shifted the pattern entirely. It brought a much milder and wetter season to Northern and Western Europe. The UK experienced fewer frosty days than average and widespread flooding. [1, 2, 3, 4]
- Winter 1997–1998: Globally recorded as one of the warmest winters of the 20th century. In Western Europe, it produced a strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. This setup pushed a relentless stream of mild, westerly winds from the Atlantic directly across the UK and continental Europe, preventing any sustained Siberian or Arctic cold from taking hold. [1, 2, 3]
- Winter 2015–2016: This was historically one of the warmest winters on record for Western Europe. December 2015 shattered heat records by an unprecedented margin. Temperatures across France, Germany, and the UK averaged 1°C to 3°C above normal for the season. Instead of snow and ice, Western Europe was subjected to a continuous train of intense Atlantic storms and severe flooding. [1, 2, 3, 4]
📉 Why Super El Niños Reduce European Cold
While weak or moderate El Niño events can sometimes trigger late-winter cold spells in Europe by weakening the polar vortex, Super El Niños behave differently. They amplify the Pacific jet stream so heavily that it forces a strong, flat, westerly flow over the North Atlantic. This persistently pumps mild oceanic air deep into the European continent, effectively locking out cold winter weather. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
QBO update from Richard Traut
August update from Richard
September update from Richard
The Sept ECM seasonal is intriguing…
MSLP
Note the low pressure, wet, potentially stormy signal early followed by the development of blocking starting over Baffin Is and progressing east over Greenland. Cold opportunity late on? While there’s little evidence from at least the more recent past of cold even late on, the models are certainly interesting and indeed a warmer ocean, land and atmosphere has certainly moved the goalposts and so nothing can be ruled out in terms of an SSW or cold late winter. My hunch as of Sept 9th is one of the mildest winters on the way…
The October update shall taken other drivers into consideration.
STAY TUNED FOR THE OCTOBER UPDATE.
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