It’s been a remarkable May through August period for not only the UK and Ireland but Europe as a whole. While a season largely dominated by unusually strong and persistent high pressure with frequent hot spells and an exceptional dry period, the month of August and season is ending very different.
Europe Temp & Precip anomaly through early Aug 28th.
UK/Ire Temp & Precip anomaly through early Aug 28th.
Near average temps NNW, warmer further south and when all’s said and done, it’s likely to be a wetter NNW August, drier SE but I wouldn’t be surprised it it was nearer average even down towards N Eng, Midlands. FULL REPORT AND ANALYSIS NEXT WEEK!
What the AUGUST OUTLOOK Said…
The Verdict
Potentially WETTER Ireland, NI, Scot, N Eng, Drier much of Eng, Wales and another WARMER than average month again Incl N/W contrary to models.
The lack of soil moisture and expansion of drought has to be factored in this Aug…
Another month of severe heat initially cent/east Europe with possible shift west through 2nd half. Another round of extreme heat Iberia, France, SE UK, Low Countries? I wouldn’t be surprised to see another run of low 40s France and low/mid 30s SE Eng later month with a surge of heat lifting into Ire, NI, Scot briefly once or twice late month confirming another warmer than average month…
Preliminary MONTHLY SCORE: 7.5 / 10
Many have asked, where has the cool been, or the thundery breakdowns or even spells of wet, westerlies we typically see at times during the summer months? Well the thundery breakdown and return of the westerlies have arrived simultaneously to see out a record breaking summer 2026.
With a lack of rain since mid June with places yet to record 5mm since mid June up until August 27th, the drought watch, warning and alert area has increased for both UK and continent as seen below.
Drought is often followed by flood, certainly in the short term and sometimes in the long term (potential for a significant wet pattern into autumn).
During August 25-27th, low pressure to SW and high pressure NE drew very warm, humid air north ahead of gathering fronts which those too eventually moved north into the warm, humid environment providing a highly energetic, volatile setup for severe weather.
Flash floods and hailstorms initially swept parts of Iberia while tornadoes hit southern France but all this energy continued north hitting parts of Birmingham and the Midlands of England with flash floods and rain totals 20-40mm in 1 hour, 60+ in 12 hours combined with a lot of frequent lightning.
The closing days of August see more of westerly and low pressure train move in off the Atlantic.
With a more active and zonal jet with greater N-S temp contrast, it looks like we could have not only a series of Atlantic depressions across UK and Ireland but some of these could become quite deep for the early stages of autumn, so wet and windy would be the likely outcome through the opening 10 days at least.
There’s a fairly strong trend for a wet low pressure dominated first half followed by lean to drier, high pressure 2nd half to the month as seen in the below weeklies. GFS and ECM show similar though ECM more reluctant to shift drier and less strong with HP signal.
Precip anom week by week of CFSv2.
With low pressure shifting to high, it’s generally warmer than average throughout.
ECM shows a very wet, Atlantic driven September.
GFS ens 30 and 32 day shows similar but not as extreme.
Both generally warmer than normal away from N Scot.
CFSv2
When looking at the seasonal models, it’s practically opposite…
Final Thoughts
There’s quite compelling agreement in models for a wet, low pressure dominated first 10-15 days, especially N, NW UK and Ireland with possibly higher pressure keeping things somewhat drier in S, SE England, possibly Wales and S Ireland and something higher pressure dominated 2nd half but we might not fully loose the wet signal further north.
IF higher pressure builds proper into the mid to late month period, there’s opportunity for a last hurrah of summer-like heat or heatwave conditions, especially S, SE UK and near continent. Do I think we see another few 30C days in SE? Yes I do which takes tally to 40+ days for 2026.
The Verdict
I believe a WET NW and DRY SE UK September with generally WARMER THAN AVERAGE away from NW Scotland, possibly N Ire, N Eng but I feel each of the past few months have been a struggle to get much proper rainfall into the typically wetter NW Eng, NW Ire etc so these areas may stay drier once again but with seasonal shift, it’s looking more likely these areas start getting wetter…
Autumn 2026 Thoughts?
There’s a strong wet signal showing in the multi system run.
Strong low pressure, wetter and warmer than average signal Oct-Dec.
See web.
There’s a potential break in Oct but Nov-Dec is looking similar to 2015 with a potentially pronounced wet, Atlantic driven signal. Warmer than average is highly likely with with wet pattern.
Keep in mind the amount of warm waters with strong background Nino with boosted Atlantic jet & strong +NAO setup.
The Verdict
Warm, wet autumn, esp late autumn (late Oct-Nov)
FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Milos Milic
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