United Kingdom & Ireland
An unusually warm, wet December ends cold, frosty and largely dry while January opens increasingly cold, with biting northerly. The northerly, packing 30 to 50+mph gusts shall usher in increasingly heavy and frequent snow showers. Low level accumulations of 5-10cm and 10-20, locally 30+ over high, exposed ground. A yellow snow and ice warning is […]
Despite a cooler end, December 2025 will be remembered for it’s persistent spells of wind, rain and warmth. On 9/10th Dec, Storm Bram (4th name of 2025/26 season) swept past. While generating the usual strong winds and heavy rains, probably the most notable aspect of this particular storm is the unusually warm air air pulled […]
Bi-Polar November’s seem to be a thing this recently. Abrupt swings from strong southwesterlies bringing record warmth to northerlies ushering in heavy snow and cold… Global temp & precip anomaly for November 2025 Europe The first 10 days was warm, even record warm across the continent with UK observing it’s warmest bonfire night on record. […]
December and meteorological winter starts mild and wet with the Atlantic the rule. The tail end of November finished with a rare SSW but being of the reflective type and supportive of North American cold outbreaks, the result for Europe is a stronger jet and reinforced low pressure dominance. While the MJO is strongly in […]
Welcome to my 16th consecutive Europe winter forecast. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the upcoming meteorological winter period (December-February) are based on current climate state and global drivers at play including current global SST profile, ENSO, IOD, QBO & Solar! Global Drivers Weak La Nina conditions Deepest -IOD Since 1996 Easterly QBO Warm […]
October ends and November begins with a deep Icelandic trough/Euro high with a predominantly mild, moist WSW flow as per week 1 of the CFSv2. The below total accumulated rainfall displays the above nicely with wettest where exposed to the Atlantic rainbands. A windy period too. With possible strengthening of the Euro ridge, I suspect […]
Another February and meteorological winter is drawing to an end. A month and season milder and drier than average for UK and Ireland, another very mild winter for most of Europe but colder February for central and southeast. February temp anomaly through the 26th. Looks like January and February combined was average to slightly below […]
Although there’s still 8 days remaining, Here’s a scoring of my 2024-25 winter forecast. Here’s what was said back on the 24th November 2024. Global drivers/teleconnections in play as of late November. What we know… Warm oceans overall NEUTRAL to Weak La Nina Cold PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Warm AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) Neutral IOD […]
January 2025 has been a mixed month but largely dominated by a -AO/NAO hemispheric setup with likely coldest opening 10 days since 2010 for both UK and Ireland. The cold first half broke around the 12th as northerlies were abruptly replaced by southerlies causing the temperature to lift by some 25-32C within a mere 72 […]
December and the first of the three meteorological winter months has been mild for Ireland, UK and much of Europe. Europe temp anomaly through 24th December. One of the warmest December’s over the higher lats of Eurasia, North America but also note the chill across N Africa, Middle East and mid lat Asia. The rest […]
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