United Kingdom & Ireland
Bi-Polar November’s seem to be a thing this recently. Abrupt swings from strong southwesterlies bringing record warmth to northerlies ushering in heavy snow and cold… Global temp & precip anomaly for November 2025 Europe The first 10 days was warm, even record warm across the continent with UK observing it’s warmest bonfire night on record. […]
December and meteorological winter starts mild and wet with the Atlantic the rule. The tail end of November finished with a rare SSW but being of the reflective type and supportive of North American cold outbreaks, the result for Europe is a stronger jet and reinforced low pressure dominance. While the MJO is strongly in […]
Welcome to my 16th consecutive Europe winter forecast. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the upcoming meteorological winter period (December-February) are based on current climate state and global drivers at play including current global SST profile, ENSO, IOD, QBO & Solar! Global Drivers Weak La Nina conditions Deepest -IOD Since 1996 Easterly QBO Warm […]
October ends and November begins with a deep Icelandic trough/Euro high with a predominantly mild, moist WSW flow as per week 1 of the CFSv2. The below total accumulated rainfall displays the above nicely with wettest where exposed to the Atlantic rainbands. A windy period too. With possible strengthening of the Euro ridge, I suspect […]
Another February and meteorological winter is drawing to an end. A month and season milder and drier than average for UK and Ireland, another very mild winter for most of Europe but colder February for central and southeast. February temp anomaly through the 26th. Looks like January and February combined was average to slightly below […]
Although there’s still 8 days remaining, Here’s a scoring of my 2024-25 winter forecast. Here’s what was said back on the 24th November 2024. Global drivers/teleconnections in play as of late November. What we know… Warm oceans overall NEUTRAL to Weak La Nina Cold PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Warm AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) Neutral IOD […]
January 2025 has been a mixed month but largely dominated by a -AO/NAO hemispheric setup with likely coldest opening 10 days since 2010 for both UK and Ireland. The cold first half broke around the 12th as northerlies were abruptly replaced by southerlies causing the temperature to lift by some 25-32C within a mere 72 […]
December and the first of the three meteorological winter months has been mild for Ireland, UK and much of Europe. Europe temp anomaly through 24th December. One of the warmest December’s over the higher lats of Eurasia, North America but also note the chill across N Africa, Middle East and mid lat Asia. The rest […]
A quite amazing November draws to an end. For UK, from warmest, driest first half to the month to significantly colder 2nd half which has made for a near average and for some, colder than average month. Europe has seen wild swings too with Iceland perhaps witnessing the most outrageous of all followed closely by […]
Welcome to my 15th consecutive European winter forecast. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the upcoming 90-day meteorological winter period will be based on current climate and climate drivers at play including current global SST profile, ENSO, Solar & much more! An important factor to consider is the level of warmth in our oceans, […]
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