The pattern which carried through the back half of January largely continued in February with dominant westerlies. A distinct cool North, mild South for not only UK but Europe. Cold and dry Scandi & Baltic Region, exceptionally mild and wet France/Spain/Portugal. See February Recap!
Is there any hints of change into the first month of meteorological spring? Safe to say the new month and season at least starts off Atlantic driven with further northward surges of mild ahead of approaching lows. However, we happen to have a real possibility of a major SSW through the first week of March. What’s ‘most likely’ to come from this is a reinforcement of high latitude blocking, possible slowdown of the NH circulation but a potential cold pattern or warm for that matter? That’s harder to say…
The culprit behind the very mild final week of February, seen below is likely down to, in least in part, a phase 4-5 MJO which has driven a textbook +NAO pattern.
Near 30C France & Spain, 20C Low Countries, Mid/high-teens UK, Germany and 4-10C above avg.
The phase 4-5 will continue the same pattern into March as seen in the below GFS ensembles week 1 and 2.
All the while, we may well have a major warming within the stratosphere which may send the mean zonal wind into reverse.
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How much this effects the lower strat into trop remains unclear and even if we see a strat to trop coupling, the response may well not occur until LATE month. Another factor is that the MJO which I believe has a lot to do with this warm end to winter beginning to spring might hold it’s influence well into March. The models support this when looking down over the pole week’s 3-4, albeit heights rise up into the arctic.
There’s no real suggestion of any significant shift to colder or are model not seeing what ‘might happen’?
The 30 day looks mildier and drier than avg, except Ireland.
Similar with ECM
I’m hopeful that HIGHER pressure gains ground over the UK and Ireland (westward retrograde) as we progress through March (much more settled/warm) with perhaps a northward shift in that high presenting something colder than average through final week to 10 days.
The Verdict…
Warmer than average for a large swathe of Europe including UK & Ireland with potential surges of unseasonable warmth at times. Drier than average away from Ireland, perhaps NW Scot.
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