Away from far NW Britain, July 2026 has been a remarkable month for lack of rainfall, seemingly endless high pressure and relentless heat. While the bulk of this mid-summer month was hot and dry, it’s start witnessed more Atlantic influence with fresher winds and wetter weather (for some).
Below average rainfall for the majority of Ireland, Wales and Scotland (except NW coast) while exceptional across much of the Midlands, South and East England with stations not recording any rain in over 40 days with that streak likely to push 50 days in places (see July charts/stats).
July and August begins with a low pulling away from N Scotland leaving behind an upper trough while another low drifts towards Ireland with higher pressure sandwiched in between as seen in the week 1 off CFSv2.
The first weekend and work week of August looks initially an improving picture of easing wind and showers for Scot, NI and generally warm and sunny Ire, Eng, Wales. Above avg temps South, below North (prob warmer South than below chart suggests but change comes as week progresses.
There’s another potential low 30C surge early next week for SE…
As we progress through the first full week of August there’s growing hints from both GFS and ECM of lower pressure drifting up from the southwest initiating a more widespread rain chance including South for a time.
Following the early week heat, it’s a switch to nearer normal perhaps a touch below thereafter in the more showery regime!
Below chart only goes out to Aug 6th and has little appreciable rain in S/SE.
Through the 6th, CFSv2 has it still drier than norm.
The setup bringing this ‘slight change’ comes as a weak, wavy jet sends a dip across the UK initiating lift and a more widespread shower threat. Could turn pretty wet for a time actually.
From later next week and beyond with potential lower pressure, it’s difficult to see what happens with such a slow moving pattern and lack of upper steering esp if stuck between systems… However there are some hints when expanding the view.
There’s a strong -NAO developing which further slows momentum but…
With that -NAO comes a building of upper level ridging generally W/NW of the UK suggesting a further lack of rainfall and generally below avg temps in North while a likely continuation of average to above avg in South for both UK and Europe.
This also could mean a coll for UK with ridging positioned both to NW and SE with neutral heights in between as the below GFS Ens suggests when looking at a N Atl perspective.
When looking from a Europe perspective, the heat core looks to focus on central, eastern, southeast Europe with a major heatwave likely there!
There’s a pretty sharp gradient mid to late next week between central and north.
It appears there’s a mix of weather and reduction in heat over NW Europe Inc SE Eng/NW Fra (steady mid 20/high 20s?) through the first half of August after an initial heat spike early next week, staying cool Ire, Scot (teens). While 30s even low 40s into E/SE Ger, Pol, Rom etc!
The 2nd half of August is a tough call really but there are hints of ridging pulling south and west over Europe (-NAO) with a lot of height rises into the N Atl then ridging builds south to north towards month’s end.
Precip and temp? An interesting wetter signal?
and warmer?
Anything wetter could well be fuelled by the marine heatwave we have surrounding UK and Europe.
Thanks to persistent heatwaves, drought has spread and intensified across much of Europe including England and Wales and so heat is never too far away with the right setup as seen all too often this year.
Late May
Late June
Mid July
Another late month run at low to even mid 30s cannot be ruled out for SE Eng in a summer finale with even risk into Sept too.
GFS Ens Vs ECM Weekly next 30-days!
MSLP
Temperature
Precip
I have to be honest and say this one is a struggle. I want to go cooler, wetter Ireland, N UK and warmer, drier South, however given the lack of any real cool including typically cooler NW (warmer and drier than expected) combined with very warm surrounding waters, it’s hard to see anything other than a 3rd warmer than average month for all.
Cent/East Europe got away with major heat in July (below avg month here) August looks like we could see the extreme heat, similar to late June levels return to here through 1st half of August perhaps easing through 2nd half with heat core shifting back towards France.
Another factor, could the tropics waken some and through some moisture and storminess towards Europe? Possibly!
The Verdict
Potentially WETTER Ireland, NI, Scot, N Eng, Drier much of Eng, Wales and another WARMER than average month again Incl N/W contrary to models.
The lack of soil moisture and expansion of drought has to be factored in this Aug…
Another month of severe heat initially cent/east Europe with possible shift west through 2nd half. Another round of extreme heat Iberia, France, SE UK, Low Countries? I wouldn’t be surprised to see another run of low 40s France and low/mid 30s SE Eng later month with a surge of heat lifting into Ire, NI, Scot briefly once or twice late month confirming another warmer than average month…
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