The period mid January through mid February was dominated by an unusually strong/south shifted and zonal jet stream, initiated by strong high latitude blocking (forcing jet south) and large thermal contrast over North America (stronger jet). The 3rd piece to what produced ‘unusual persistence’ and shift in distribution of wind and precipitation was unusually strong and equally persistent blocking over Scandinavia which completed the set of ingredients which created an ‘extreme pattern’ on repeat. Atlantic storms pummeled a region from southern UK to Iberia, Morocco and even Canaries.
Under the cold block anchored over the Scandi/Baltic region, 35-50 days remained below freezing (longest since 2010 from Oslo to Helsinki) while storm after storm brought 50+ straight days of rain to parts of SW England, 36 days in France while areas to the lee of high ground and behind the rain shadow, 21 days without rain in NW Highland, 21 days without sunshine in Aberdeenshire.
The south shifted jet and block flipped the normal flow and turned typically wettest areas driest and vice versa over UK as well as Europe.
A very much 2013-14 set of circumstances (specifically mentioned in winter forecast!), with parts of southern UK wettest since that winter. An often stretched PV delivered frequent waves of arctic air into eastern North America via cross polar flow. Enhanced thermal contrast on the other side of the Atlantic beefed up a south shifted Atlantic storm track which piled mild, moist air into W/SW Europe.
Grazalema, Spain recorded an astonishing 2000mm (78 inches) of rain in just 20 days. A full year’s worth while the exposed Contentin Penninsula of northern France a gust to 132 mph was recorded, 99 mph on Scilly Isles and 90 mph in Cornwall, resulting in 2014-like damages.
While the first half of January was cold with snow affecting parts of UK (North esp), N France and parts of Spain, there was little wintry conditions during February away from N Europe.
Global temp & precip anomaly for February 2026
Europe
Winter turned out cold for northern and northeastern Europe, mild South and west as predicted.
WHAT WAS SAID!
25 NOVEMBER 25TH, 2025
My idea published late September 2025!
The Forecast
December 2025
December is very tricky. Two elements which favour cold but by working against each other can deliver quite the different pattern type.
I’m going with a generally mild, wet west to southwest first 10-14 days over W Europe with change between 10-15th possibly 20th. S slowing of the flow and building of pressure north of the UK/Ireland region (perhaps a Scandi block) could develop. I believe we’ve a slightly increased change (60%) of a colder Christmas-New Year period with north, northeast or indeed east winds developing. Mild first half/colder 2nd half to December with a storm or two possible.
Average to above average temperatures, Average rainfall with variability across UK/Ireland
January 2026
Coming off the back of a cold New Year (providing continued weak PV & downwelling into trop), there’s a good chance, like observed last year, for a prolonged cold spell with decent opportunity for heavy snowfalls across many or most of the UK, Ireland and near continent. A firmly -AO/NAO setup through the first half of January with coldest weather of winter setting in. Widespread days below freezing with nights widely -5 to -10 with prone cold spots (N Eng, Highlands) witnessing another run at -20.
2nd half of January sees a thaw as MJO heads into either the stormier phases of 2-3 or mild 4-5.
Colder, drier than average month for UK/Ireland and much of W Europe including France, Low Countries, Scandi
February 2026
Average to above average temperature & rainfall for much of Western Europe with stronger polar vortex, +AO/NAO driven pattern with MJO in warmer phases.
The below is a possible outcome even in December IF the strat warming is the ‘wrong type’ and or MJO doesn’t behave.
The Verdict
I must state that confidence is lower than I would like due to conflicting signals. I have to say that my gut is leaning me towards the milder side of average in temperature and wetter for the Dec-Feb period. With December and February both looking warmer that tips the balance for the season.
WHAT HAPPENED…
500mb/Precip anomaly 1 Dec-18 Feb
The stronger than normal zonal jet in combination with a strong and persistent Scandinavian block produced persistent weather of opposites with day after day of rain, no rain, sun or no sun. 21 straight days without rain for parts of NW Scotland, 21 straight without sun in Aberdeenshire, 51 straight with rain in parts of Cornwall and 36 days in parts of France.
Past 90 days (Meteorological Winter)
Following a very mild December, January/February was highly unusual for such a persistent pattern which brought record breaking stormy and wet weather into Spain, Portugal and France.
MY WINTER FORECAST SCORE: 8.5 Out of 10!
The score is based on accurate temperature anomaly prediction and overall ‘wetter than average’ prediction, albeit finer details may have been less accurate. Timing of winter’s colder period proved very good as well as the predicted south shifted storm track and mild Dec/Feb with cold Jan in between. While MJO didn’t necessarily behave as predicted or polar vortex strengthen, the overall pattern outcome is likely the most accurate for the three months combined since 2009-10.
UK Stats/Highlights
February 2026 figures across the country
MET OFFICE: Dull and mild February brings wet winter to a close
The Met Office has released its provisional statistics for Winter 2025/26 and February 2026, revealing a season characterised by persistent wet weather and stark regional rainfall contrasts.
February then brought some of the lowest sunshine totals on record for all four UK nations, alongside some exceptionally mild conditions.
Winter rainfall among the wettest on record
This winter ranks among the wettest on record (since the series began in 1836) for some parts of the UK:
- England experienced its eighth wettest winter.
- Northern Ireland recorded its ninth wettest, and its wettest for ten years.
- Southern England saw its fourth wettest winter – its wettest in over a decade.
- The West Midlands, Cornwall and Leicestershire all experienced their wettest winter on record.
Several other counties – including Dorset and Warwickshire, which recorded their second wettest winter – fell within their top ten wettest winters since 1836, highlighting the widespread nature of the persistent rainfall.
This map shows how Winter 25/26 ranks for rainfall from 1837-2026 by county.
This map shows winter rainfall records by county from 1837 and in which year they occurred.
This winter was wetter than average across the UK, with the nation recording 13% more rainfall than the long-term meteorological average (LTA) for the season. However, the headline figure hides substantial regional differences:
- England: 42% above its winter LTA
- Northern Ireland: 27% above its winter LTA
- Wales: 20% above its winter LTA
- Scotland: 14% below its winter LTA
The wet conditions were particularly pronounced across southern and central England, where saturated ground from early season rainfall left areas more sensitive to impacts from further wet weather.
A north/south divide is evident across England, with rainfall totals 17% and 58% above the long-term average respectively.
In Scotland, the contrast is equally marked. Eastern areas experienced 21% above their seasonal average rainfall, whilst northern areas saw 31% below and western areas 14% below LTA.
READ: Why has it been so wet this winter?
Southern England’s eighth warmest winter on record
Mean temperatures across the UK were above the seasonal long-term average, with England recording the highest national mean at 5.7°C. Southern England saw particularly high average temperatures – its eighth warmest since the series began in 1884 – with several counties also ranking in their top ten warmest winters on record.
Winter drew to a close with temperatures above 18°C on 25 February – a contrast to the much cooler temperatures experienced in January.
READ: Contextualising February’s warm spell: A notably mild end to winter
A notably dull season – especially for Scotland
Sunshine was in short supply this winter. The UK recorded just 84% of its average sunshine hours, with Scotland most affected, experiencing its tenth dullest winter since 1910.
February 2026: ninth warmest and fourth dullest for the UK
The UK, and all four nations recorded above average mean temperatures during February. The month ranks among the warmest on record (since the series began in 1884) for mean temperature for some parts of the UK.
- UK: Ninth warmest February on record
- England: Fourth warmest
- Wales: Sixth warmest
- Southern England: Third warmest
Notably, 21 counties recorded their highest February minimum temperature on record, highlighting unusually mild nights.
One of the dullest Februarys ever recorded
Sunshine was in short supply for many this February, with records dating back to 1910.
- UK: Fourth dullest
- Wales: Dullest February on record
- Northern Ireland: Fifth dullest
- Scotland: Seventh dullest
- England: Seventh dullest
Every UK nation ranked within its top ten dullest Februarys on record, reflecting the dominance of cloud-bearing Atlantic systems and very limited high-pressure influence.
Above-average rainfall, with strong regional differences
February saw a continuation of the wet conditions that dominated January, with unsettled weather bringing persistent rain for the first three weeks.
For the UK, February was 23% wetter than average, and the picture varied regionally:
- England: 70% above its February LTA
- Northern Ireland: 30% above its February LTA
- Wales: 35% above its February LTA
- Scotland: 17% below its February LTA
Worcestershire experienced its wettest February ever recorded (since 1836) and several other counties ranked within their top ten wettest.
Met Office Science Manager Dr Amy Doherty said: “February’s mild and notably dull conditions have brought a winter of considerable contrasts to a close. While February itself stood out for its exceptionally low sunshine and above average temperatures, the broader winter picture shows just how varied conditions have been around the UK.
“Some southern and central areas of the UK experienced persistent rainfall, leading to saturated ground and several areas recording one of their wettest winters on record. In contrast, parts of northern and western Scotland were markedly drier, which is notable given these areas are typically among the wettest in the UK.
“This year, it was eastern Scotland that saw above average rainfall, highlighting an unusual reversal of the pattern normally expected, and demonstrating the strong regional differences that can develop within a season.
“Taken together, the winter and February figures highlight the influence of a predominantly Atlantic weather pattern and the pronounced variability that can characterise the UK climate.”
February 2026 Monthly Weather Report
Highest Maximum 18.7°C on 25th at Kew Gardens (Greater London, 6mAMSL)
Lowest Maximum 0.5°C on 3rd at Buxton (Derbyshire, 307mAMSL)
Highest Minimum 11.0°C on 22nd at Chivenor (Devon, 6mAMSL)
Lowest Minimum -10.0°C on 18th at Tomintoul No 6 (Banffshire, 320mAMSL)
Lowest Grass
Minimum -15.0°C on 13th at Dundreggan Rewilding Centre (Inverness-shire, 123mAMSL)
Most Rainfall 140.0mm on 5th at Trassey Slievenaman (Down, 220mAMSL)
Most Sunshine 9.6hr on 28th at Kirkwall (Orkney, 26mAMSL)
Highest Gust 57Kt 66mph on 20th at Aberdaron (Gwynedd, 86mAMSL)
Highest Gust
(mountain*)
78Kt 90mph on 5th at Great Dun Fell No 2 (Cumbria, 847mAMSL)
also on 26th at Cairngorm Summit (Inverness-shire, 1237mAMSL)
Greatest Snow
Depth at 0900
UTC
16cm on 13th at Copley (Durham, 253mAMSL)
MY PREDICTION FOR FEBRUARY 2026
8 Out of 10: A Decent Prediction
The Verdict
Ok, I am going to call for a near average February in a line from Ireland/UK southeastwards to Italy, to the north and east MUCH Colder than average, south and southwest milder than average and VERY WET!
My February 2026 Stats
HIGHLIGHTS/SUMMARY
A rather benign final month of meteorological winter.
– Tie for coolest Feb (rest being so mild the bar isn’t particularly low!
– Tie for warmest Feb day
Global Highlights for February 2026
With 140mm of rain falling within 24 hours on 5th at Trassey Slievenaman, this is provisionally a new Northern Ireland 24 hour rainfall record following on from a new January 24 hour rainfall record of 100mm at Katesbridge, Co Down.
Spain January extremes
Yesterday, after 37 consecutive days, the temperature rose above 0°C in Helsinki
It is the longest continuous cold spell since the winter of 2009-2010. An example of how long cold blocks can persist at high latitudes. Over an entire month without ever rising above zero.
This month of #février2026 in France is exceptional in more ways than one. It is the rainiest month of February since 1959. It also ranks 2nd among the warmest months of February since 1900, tied with February 2024 but behind February 1990.
Winter rainfall for 2025-2026 proved exceptionally abundant in Brittany and near the Mediterranean (> +100/+200%). Up to 1450 mm fell at La Souche (07) and 1362 mm at Vivario in Corsica. A drier-than-average winter is noted near the northeastern borders. The maximum gusts recorded during the winter often exceeded 90 km/h across the entire country, with localized peaks of 180 to 200 km/h.
With an average thermal anomaly of +3.6 °C compared to the 1991-2020 normals, this February stood out for its remarkable mildness. In several stations, from Lower Normandy to the Centre region and up to Burgundy, it even constitutes the mildest February ever observed.
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