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The period mid January through mid February was dominated by an unusually strong/south shifted and zonal jet stream, initiated by strong high latitude blocking (forcing jet south) and large thermal contrast over North America (stronger jet). The 3rd piece to what produced ‘unusual persistence’ and shift in distribution of wind and precipitation was unusually strong […]

Global temp & precip anomaly for January 2026 Europe UK Stats/Highlights MET OFFICE: Northern Ireland sees wettest January in 149 years as 2026 gets off to a wet and windy start January 2026 was a notably unsettled month for many across the UK, with persistent spells of heavy rain and strong winds. Provisional Met Office […]

December 2025, as predicted both in my Winter Forecast & December Outlook was mild and wet with frequent lows and fronts affecting the NW of Europe including UK & Ireland. The southwest to northeast storm track kept the UK and Ireland on the warm, moist side of the ridge-trough couplet and higher pressure over Europe […]

A variable month which started with mild west, cold in east along with Storm Amy slamming the UK/Ireland while record early snowfalls affected the Balkans. Into mid month and the ridge/trough pattern flipped around with colder east, warmer east and high variation in rainfall distribution. Global temp & precip anomaly for October 2025 Europe UK […]

In this 2nd winter update, I wish to make this more thoughts based on what was discussed in the 1st update. Basing the latest drivers into potential outcomes. DRIVERS: LA NINA / EASTERLY QBO / WARM OVER COLD NORTH PACIFIC & FADING -IOD Some important considerations for Winter 25-26 We’re firmly in at least weak […]

From deep cyclonic to anticyclonic, the wild swings of autumn! Storm Amy and her record low pressure and wind speeds seem like a distant memory since a powerful area of high pressure steadily built in and anchored itself over the UK. As is often the case during autumn, we’ve found ourselves parked beneath a strong, […]

Latest Key Factors We’re increasingly likely to observe at least WEAK La Nina conditions through late autumn and early winter. 3 KEY DRIVERS: La Nina, Easterly QBO, -IOD Latest equatorial Pacific SSTA’s show La Nina conditions developing. The important region to watch is for ENSO status is 3.4 Model Projection Examples of Easterly QBO years:  […]

August 2025 was another warm month for UK, Ireland W Europe as well as many parts of the Northern Hemisphere. Not everywhere was warm, however, it was cool in places such as the Baltic states, parts of Kazakhstan, Mongolia as well as Eastern US. 3rd warmest August on record globally behind 2023 and 2024 with […]

It was a warm to very warm month for most with variable rainfall distribution across Europe. Global anomaly Hot start for UK with 35.8C recorded at Faversham, Kent on the 1st but probably the most notable heat came to the UK mid-month. 27/28+C was witnessed at stations from south to north coast. 5 sites set […]