June has very much followed in May’s footsteps across Europe including the UK/Ireland with distinct tale of two halves. Cool, wet 1st half followed by warm, dry 2nd half with blistering heatwave to finish. A repeating pattern which may well show up a 3rd consecutive month with potential for a 3rd heatwave on steroids…
Cool followed by hot…
May
June
Uncanny timing both months and even more odd is the fact that the UK witnessed their peak highest May and June temperatures on 26th of each month at 35.1 in May and 37.7 in June, Ireland witnessed their warmest June day since 1976 and 5th highest all-time with 32,2 at Athenry.
Of course France witnessed it’s warmest day and night nationally on record as did Spain while countless national monthly records across Europe we’re set with some all-time. See June Recap available in coming days for breakdown…
The break in the year’s 2nd historic heat came with quite the light show with downpours accompanied by powerful downdrafts, frequent lightning, large hail and flooding. The southern batch triggered purely by high heat and humidity and low pressure approaching from SW and northern batch associated with a frontal boundary on the edge of the heat dome.
It was another accurate forecast and while predicting another potential heatwave through 2nd half of June which many dismissed, I, like for May, underestimated the level of heat. June ends fresher, more unsettled ‘return of the westerlies’, strikingly similar to the end of the 1st heatwave but looks like with a little less punch from the Atlantic.
We have a noticeable cooler, wetter N/W, warmer, dry S/E. Falling nicely in line with climatology.
A series of systems riding the northern flank of the flattened high will push fresher air into Europe in waves as we enter July like we witnessed to open June which lasted into middle month bringing a lot of wet as well as cool weather.
As we step into meteorological summer’s middle month and heart of summer, there’s a growing dry signal showing over the heart of Europe I suspect this could and likely will fuel further heatwaves for many.
The return of the Atlantic could be relatively short lived with indications of high pressure and hotter, more humid air building back northwards. Whether it remains cooler and wetter in Ireland and northern UK into coastal Scandi remains to be seen.
The 32-day rain anomaly from ECMWF combined with latest drought monitor makes me concerned.
The 35-day off the GFS ensemble is no better with the dry signal.
Only difference I’m seeing between my July idea (in summer forecast) back at the end of spring and this July Outlook may be a drier, warmer Ireland and more of UK except Scotland, perhaps NI but an overall warmer, drier SE/E UK extending across much of Europe holds firm. Ireland and NW is tricky. Could be wetter and even cooler as originally thought or drier depending upon where the boundary positions… It’s a more dynamic pattern as we enter the heart of summer.
The CFSv2, NMME and CANSIPS all point to warmer, drier than normal though CFSv2 slightly cooler, wetter in N Scot. ALL 3 show a drier, warmer UK/Ire (including Scot/NW Ire) along with wetter Med/South Europe in line with past strong El Nino’s.
CFSv2
NMME
CANSIPS
A cooler, wetter first week, esp W/N UK and Ire, I suspect high pressure (warm to hot and dry) will dominate much of July for at least SE UK with (temporary interuptions) into west and central mainland Europe.
CFSv2 weeklies show high pressure and warmer, drier signal building north and west end of week 1 into 2 for most with possible cooler, wetter boundary affecting N/W Ire, UK.
There might be a few temporary breaks in heat for central/western mainland Europe & SE UK as high shifts more west of W of Ire producing fresher WNW flow and systems riding around and down into central areas. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if we get firm heatwave conditions return into week 2.
Another break and return of the westerlies last week to 10 days possible? but it’s looking like a 3rd month in a row of initial cooler, wetter followed by a heatwave but how intense? Could a 3rd historic heat event hit mid-month? This atmosphere has shown what it’s capable of not once but twice in the last 6 to 8 weeks, let’s see as it might just be that the heat eases this coming month to more typical levels rather than off the scale.Hard to tell given what’s happened, what some models are suggesting and dry signal growing.
As for levels of heat, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more upper 30s/low 40s from Central Spain/Portugal up through France into central Europe, low to mid 30s possibly clipping SE Eng/Benelux (as it stands I’m leaning a little less extreme far west Eur/SE UK).
Like with both May and June, heat duration is only a couple of days for NW Ireland and Scotland and less intense..
The Verdict
Another warmer month for most, perhaps except for W/N Ire/N, NW UK where rainfall could be around average to slightly above. Firmly warmer, drier much of Eng, Wales and much drier than June turned out to be. A hot, dry month across Europe with possibly wetter Med.
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