May has been a month of extremes with warm start, cool middle (coolest since 2010) followed by arguably one of Britain and Ireland’s most exceptional heatwaves. Just a week ago, it was running firmly below average, now, like March and April, warmer than average to complete a firmly warmer than average spring of 2026.
As we head into June and meteorological summer, we’re seeing a significant deflation of the record-breaking high and shall be replaced by lower pressure as seen in the week 1-2 500mb charts off CFSv2 below.
Cooler Atlantic air spreads S & E but only nearer to average compared to the 10-15C above’s we’ve become use to seeing of late.
It turns wetter as well as cooler.
Like much of May, the N & W has always been cooler and wetter nearer to low pressure but could this change mid to late June?
There are hints from the models for higher pressure to make a comeback bringing a warmer, drier, sunnier signal mid month on.
Before then, even with lower pressure, there’s plenty of opportunity for warm sunny spells inbetween a series of SW to NE tracking systems but for a time, lows taking more of an easterly track across the UK could turn winds more northwesterly at times next 10-15 days.
But check out weeks 3-4 off the CFSv2. Looks promising, whether it truly materialises remains to be seen.
If a core of HP happens to sit off Ireland’s west coast, WNW would be on the cooler side.
With higher pressure comes a return to drier than average.
Likely warmer than average but position is important.
So, cooler, wetter low pressure dominated first half, warmer, drier 2nd half to June for more northern areas of both UK & Europe? If higher pressure builds across north, lower pressure and wetter conditions could focus on Iberia, France, perhaps even threatening thundery, showery weather into southern Ireland and UK.
The ECMWF is hinting at just that for the month as a whole.
For the monthly, the CFSv2 has a strong ridge dominating much of Europe with potential for lows riding the periphery and affecting NW Ireland & Scotland, generally warmer, drier for most if not all UK. Plausible given it’s 1st half vs 2nd half solution off weeklies.
ECM 32-day shows wetter with avg/bel avg temps for Northern UK, warmer, drier further south and into Europe through 28 June.
GFS ensemble is warmer, drier for UK into Europe.
CFS, ECM and GFS all have a similar look albeit ECM wetter in N UK.
As of early May, the drought watch and warning area is increasing with lack of rain really since the turn of spring and unfortunately this drying trend is likely to continue growing and worsen through June based on model consensus.
This drying out of the soils could play a role in how hot later.
The Verdict
A cool, unsettled start spreads east and south over Ireland and UK through the first 10 or so days but in between a series of lows, warm sunshine is likely for most if not all. As the month enters week 2, higher pressure over the near continent likely builds north bringing more settled, warmer and drier conditions even to the cooler/wetter N & W.
Northwest UK & possibly NW Ireland could wind up near avg to cooler & wetter while S & E UK yet again in for another firmly warmer and drier than normal month. I expect warmer and drier for most of Europe (esp South/Cent/West) with potential for significant heat including spells into much of Eng/Wales with later month even affecting Scot/NI.
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