Welcome to my 16th annual UK/Europe summer forecast. As always, when compiling this forecast for the upcoming June-August period there are multiple factors which are taken into consideration. They include the past winter pattern, type of spring just observed as well as the current ENSO state, global and regional sea surface temperature anomalies etc.
THE BIGGEST FACTOR THIS SUMMER WILL BE THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF EL NINO...
Quick Summer 2025 Recap
A very warm summer for much of the Northern Hemisphere land mass with many regions witnessing warmest or one of the warmest on record.
For the UK, summer 2025 was warmest on record with hot spells in all three meteorological summer months. Along with warmer, it was a drier and sunnier than average summer except for NW and Northern Ireland.
In terms of the forecast, it was among my best summer forecasts along with 2024.
So, what’s ahead for meteorological summer 2026? Same again?
Past Rapidly Developing El Nino Spring & Summers
Google AI’s top analogs for this summer are:
1997
2015
2024
Following a very wet, mild 2025/26 winter, spring 2026 for the UK and Ireland has been dry, sunny and mild despite early to mid-May cold spell which was abruptly followed by an astonishing hot spell.
Both UK’s warmest May day and warmest May night were beaten back to back day’s and night’s.
England, Wales and Rep of Ireland blew their warmest May day’s on record away along with Portugal, Andorra, Luxembourg…
With focus on dry, sunny, mild spring of 2026 and taking a rapidly developing El Nino into account, how did past spring’s behave with a similar developing strong El Nino? Here’s 3 past examples…
Past UK springs with strong developing El Nino (AI overview)
1982
MARCH 1982: Wet, but extremely sunny with average temperatures. APRIL 1982: Warm, very dry and very sunny. MAY 1982: Very wet, but sunny with average temperatures. JUNE 1982: Very warm, but very wet and also dull
1997
The UK spring of 1997 was characterized by notably warm, dry, and sunny
Weather Highlights (Spring 1997)
- Warmth: Temperatures were significantly above average, with March being particularly warm, making it the third warmest spring since 1956.
- Dryness: The period was one of the driest in recent decades, with low rainfall levels raising concerns about potential water shortages, following a very dry winter.
- Sunshine: It was highly sunny, with 12 days classified as “very sunny” (over 12 hours of sun).
2015
The UK spring of 2015 was generally characterised as dry, sunny, and frequently cool, featuring a notable contrast between warm days and cold nights. While March and April offered pleasant, sunny conditions for many, May was cooler and more unsettled. [1, 2, 3]
Key 2015 Spring Weather Highlights:
- March: Very dry and sunny, with temperatures averaging slightly above normal. Early March was particularly mild, with temperatures reaching up to \(17^{\circ }\text{C}\) in parts of the UK.
- April: Exceptionally sunny and dry, making it a very pleasant spring month. It was the sunniest April since 2011, with daytime temperatures sometimes exceeding \(20^{\circ }\text{C}\). However, it was also noted for having cold nights.
- May: The month was dry but otherwise average in temperature, often described as cool and dull compared to the preceding months
Including spring 2026, there’s compelling focus on dry and sunny with 2 out of 3 also warmer than average.
Surface pressure above average for spring 2026, 2015, 1997 and 1982.
ALL 4 springs featured higher than average pressure as well as dry conditions!
What about the summers which followed then?
500mb of past summers with a strong developing El Nino.
1982
Surface air temp anomaly for summer 1982. (average)
1982: Brief heatwave to start June but followed by historic t-storms and heavy rains, July relatively warm, dry, settled followed by fairly average, cloudy August.
1997
Surface air temp anomaly for summer 1997 (mild)
1997: Cool, wet June-July followed by a record breaking hot, humid, sunny August.
2015
Surface air temp anomaly for summer 2015 (cool)
2015: Very mixed, often wet and cool overall with a couple of heat spikes for UK… A great drought developed over central and eastern Europe.
Here are those 3 summers combined.
500mb anomaly
NOTE, WHILE THERE’S A MIX OF WARM AND COOL, DRY AND WET WITH THE 3 ABOVE SUMMERS, THE UK IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TROUGH WEST/RIDGE EAST HENCE THE VOLATILITY…
MIXED, VOLATILE, CONTRASTING with a lean to the EXTREME (warm/cool/wet/dry) are the take homes and when looking at other past years, there’s further evidence of this.
The below charts nicely illustrates the abrupt swing from record low 500mb heights to record high heights in the space of 2 weeks in May 2026.
This wild May also illustrates what our atmosphere is capable of producing. Could this be a hint of what’s ahead?
Things to Consider When Forecasting in 2026 Verses 2015, 1997, 1982…
- No two El Nino’s are the same…
- Subtle Differences near the source (tropics/subtropics) can make for big differences further away
- Over the past decade ocean, land and atmosphere have become more uniform warm leading to less guidance from past, teleconnections and even from El Nino.
The effects from El Nino are likely to be different when considering background warming which results in a different ocean-atmosphere-land interaction.
Here are those global SSTA’s as of late May 2026 followed by the same time in 2015, 1997, 1982, notice how much cooler it was as we go back in time.
Strong El Nino’s help produce new temperature plateau’s.
Notice the step up of global tropospheric temp below, helped by strong/super El Nino’s. Note the significant spike in the wake of 97 then 2015 and most recently 2023. Last 12 months has come down, helped by La Nina but still well above average. Do we see a new plateau with the 26/27 episode? Depends on how strong it get’s.
Let’s recap, so spring 2026 just ending has very much followed in the footsteps of past rapidly developing strong Nino’s with largely dry, sunny, mild March through May period’s like 82, 97, 2015 and below are those summer’s from a 500mb perspective.
The below ECMWF re-analysis of past strong developing Nino’s (from Severe Weather Europe) shows a cool far West Europe (trough) and warm (higher pressure) Central & North Europe similar when combining 82, 95 and 2015 together.
As for rainfall, actually a WET south, DRY north including UK. Often stormy in the warm, humid, lower height field of South, instability & higher CAPE thanks to warm Med.
So What Are The Long Range Models Saying?
ECMWF seasonal Jun-Aug, 2026
Generally WARM & DRY away from NW UK.
CANSIPS
A very WARM, DRY Europe except for Iberia.
CFSv2
COOL, WET Ireland, N UK but WARM, DRY into Near Continent likely incl SE Eng.
The below multi-model hints at the past.
Firmly warmer and drier than average central and north…
The UK seems to sit between a ridge (east) and trough (west) bringing high variability during El Nino summers and Europe can likewise see big contrasts, extremes and spells of major heat & flood with back and fourths.
Could the dry spring continue into summer for some leading to drought and provide fuel for extreme heat?
Despite a seemingly building drought heading into summer, the spring pattern doesn’t always continue, in fact it’s been known to flip the other way.
I feel seasonal prediction, while has always been difficult and contains a large degree of guesswork, is becoming more difficult.
While the past sheds light on a certain type of setup, it’s not clear I feel particularly in 2026 and not as straightforward as one might think. For example if you listen to the media and some channels, El Nino would have you believe we along with Europe are in for a record hot and dry summer, actually El Nino tends to bring a bit of the opposite here in W/NW Europe as seen above.
My Prediction
With EL NINO developing at the rate it is with frequent and strong WWB’s, the background warming and warmer waters surrounding our continent, there is arguably more heat within our atmosphere and this significantly increases the chances of a warm or very warm summer ahead. Rainfall is a different matter as warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture increasing flash flood risk, especially Alps & Southern Europe, even UK.
Warmer atmosphere & rapid drying out of soils I think elevates chances for a sprawling, stronger than normal high pressure cell to develop and likely dominate much of central Europe this summer.
This ‘dominant high’ will move around, expand and contract and the cause of this? A semi-permanent Atlantic trough positioned near and at times over Ireland & UK. The push and pull of Atlantic trough/Euro heat dome brings of risk of high variability and extremes from heat to severe storms and even significant flood, perhaps some unusually cool, rainy days too? May has shown what our warmer atmosphere is capable of…
The high pressure (in the mean) possibly positioned between N Italy and Baltic Sea presents a ‘ring of fire’ type setup through the Mediterranean and Southern Europe, a frequent battle between heat, maybe high heat with storm & flood.
A trough never too far away from Northwest UK/Ireland will likely bring another battle this summer, though more of a maritime flavour compared to continent. A battle between high heat off Europe and cool, wet off the Atlantic. The Northwest UK is likely more influenced by lower pressure (cool, wet) while Southeast more by higher pressure (warm to at time hot & dry).
Except for coastal Norway, possibly Iceland, Scotland, N Ire, Rep of Ireland and east-central Spain (Average to slightly BELOW Average temps )… I expect ALL of the rest of Europe to be WARMER-THAN NORMAL for the upcoming June-August period.
There’s a chance for WETTER than normal across Southern (parts of Iberia to Italy), Far Western (Ire, Scot, poss N Eng) & coastal Northern Europe.
MONTHLY BREAKDOWN
JUNE
A cool, wet first half to June for NW Europe including UK/Ireland, possibly extending into N France, Low Countries, N Germany, possibly Alps. With the collision of cool Atlantic air and fronts with building heat and humidity over southern and central Europe, severe thunderstorms and flooding is of concern. Warmer east/southeast Europe. Cooler, wetter west/northwest with warm Iberia.
Heat expands west mid to late June with potential hot, dry conditions spreading into France, Low Countries and lifting up through UK/Ireland. Potential widespread hot, possibly heatwave conditions between 2nd half of month.
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS WITH AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL IRE, NI, SCOT… WARMER, DRIER ENG/WALES. MAX 33C
JULY
I expect the Atlantic trough to regain control of Northwest Europe including most of UK & Ireland with heat held to south/central/east, perhaps Scandi through 1st half of July. Collision of air masses mean increased storm and flood threat through central, perhaps west/central mainland Europe.
Through mid to late July perhaps another westward advancement of heat reaching at least southern UK with Ireland, Scotland possibly missing out on any real heat.
AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS/ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR IRELAND, N/W UK. MAX 32C
AUGUST
A hot month across much of Europe and potentially best summer month for UK with Euro high centered further west, cooler, wetter Poland, Baltics, Balkans, Russia. A warm to hot and drier than average month. Possibly record challenging heat across Western Europe as well as UK and Ireland.
WARMER, DRIER THAN AVERAGE MONTH. MAX 38C
I would like to say a big thanks to Rich for his support to me and channel and kindly creating the fantastic graphics.
FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Ian Manning
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