MJO Driving the US Pattern and Sudden Stratospheric Warming?

Written by on December 19, 2018 in United States of America with 1 Comment

The persistent thunderstorm activity over the Indian Ocean has been a strong phase 3 indicator of the MJO, a warm phase for the Lower 48. As this convection weakens, we’re going through phases 4 and next week, into 5.

As you can see below, phase 4 remains warm but 5 shows cooling out West.

Note the similarity in above temp charts and the below showing the next 10 days. Note how the countryside warmth shifts east as we enter phase 5.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The 11-15 is colder.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

A big rain event will run up the east coast as we end the week and commence the last weekend big Christmas as seen on the GFS below.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

As we enter phase 5 next week and the west cools, a major storm system is already seen by the models running in between the western cold/eastern warmth and the GFS is already showing a major central snowstorm.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

 

The big test shall come as upward motion reverses to sinking over the eastern Indian Ocean. Amplified MJO’s like we currently have, usually leads to a colder pattern for the US.

As for the amplified phase 3 of the MJO which sparked widespread t-storms over the eastern Indian Ocean, this may have aided the triggering of the current and ongoing SSWE. As stated in previous posts, it was Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell which stated how the immense heat release from the t-storms may have driven the initial strat warming first over NE Asia across to North America.

Despite the t-storms now slowly dissipating over the IO there’s a delay in this heat rising through the troposhere into the stratosphere warming. Models are confident in a major surge of cross polar warming at 10mb around Christmas.

Now that we’re seeing the strong strat warming, the CFSv2 is looking like this for January with a cold signal for both US and Europe.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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  1. Kathleen says:

    Nice! We’ll take this in the Southeastern USA – Nashville, Tennessee. Thanks for this great analysis. Many blessings for you and your family for the Holidays. ❄️☃️

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