Tag: winter forecast
Welcome to my 13th annual winter forecast for Europe. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the upcoming 90-day meteorological winter period are based on the current state of solar cycle 25, current ocean and atmospheric drivers and my understanding of their potential influence. Of course, pinpointing any specific pattern several weeks or months ahead […]
Welcome to my 12th annual winter forecast for Europe. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the upcoming 90-day meteorological winter period are based on current solar, ocean and atmospheric drivers and my understanding of their potential influence. Of course, pinpointing any specific pattern several weeks or months ahead is near impossible but we can […]
Welcome to my 10th annual winter forecast for Europe. This marks the 10th anniversary of the greatest winter of my lifetime and my greatest long range forecast. 2009-10 was a true old fashioned winter and a winter which will be firmly entrenched in my mind forever. It was a winter of frequent and often big […]
Despite the impressive blast of arctic air into the Midwest on the rear of one of November’s biggest snowstorms across Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan, November overall will wind up much warmer than normal east of the Rockies. Yesterday was a very cold day by November standards. However… month to date looks like this. It looks like we’ve a very interesting close […]
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The below winter 2015-16 forecast for Europe is based on. Global sea surface temperature anomaly Strong El Nino & forecast projection into winter Eurasia snow cover Solar Cycle 24 Trend in NAO/AO during the past year Interesting to note that as of this winter forecast release, today broke a 1946 UK November record with a remarkably mild 22.4C […]
There’s an interesting divide in long range model solution for the upcoming winter. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] I strongly believe individual forecasters lean towards their favoured model where it’s warm or cold and it’s interesting to see the growing contrast in forecasts coming out. WSI shows a warm Europe winter with little to no blocking. AccuWeather is quite different. To […]
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This seasonal forecast for the UK, Ireland and rest of Europe is based on the signals nature has already presented to us and data available as well as past analog years. With the development of a weak, possibly moderate El Nino into winter (central Pacific positioned), the progression into an easterly QBO within a downward trend in solar cycle 24 (but not minimum), a […]
More ‘signs’ which suggest cold for down the road… Snow advancement/extent over Siberia through October has been greatest in decades… Check out this eye-catching graphic tweeted by Anthony Sagliani. Is this significant to our winter ahead? The OPI (October Pattern Index) has been firmly negative this year which can be a signal to cold for the approaching […]
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