For the UK and Ireland, April 2024 has been a distinct tail of two halves with mild, wet first half to cooler, drier 2nd half. Quite incredible to see several places record their wettest April on record through just the first 12 days! ???? Wondering if the rain will ever stop? ???? Several locations in […]
The below forecast is based on current and projected ENSO conditions across the equatorial Pacific, very warm Atlantic and ocean/atmosphere model projections. First of all let’s see what’s considered normal. Tropical Cyclone Climatology Table 1. Progress of the average Atlantic season (1991-2020). Date upon which the following number of events would normally have occurred. Number Named […]
The warm, wet theme continued for the UK and Ireland through March 2024 despite the most significant of three SSW’s and favourable MJO cold phases of 7-8-1. And even the most negative NAO since January when we saw our 2nd and final cold (for some), snowy spell of winter 2023-24. March anomaly. MET OFFICE: Spring starts […]
Current Overview The current large-scale pattern is likely being driven or aided by a strong MJO rotation through phases 7-8-1 which is building pressure to the north and forcing the jet stream south. NAO dips to lowest negative since at least January. The above is driving a rather turbulent run-up to the upcoming Easter weekend. […]
Meteorological winter 2023-24 draws to a close today. Given how mild February turned out to be, I think it’s safe to say many will quickly forget this one. That being said, it’s had it’s fair share of flips, extremes and oddities… From one of the coldest December openings since 2010 to heavy rains, multiple named […]
For the UK and Ireland, April 2024 has been a distinct tail of two halves with mild, wet first half to cooler, drier 2nd half. Quite incredible to see several places record their wettest April on record through just the first 12 days! ???? Wondering if the rain will ever stop? ???? Several locations in […]
The warm, wet theme continued for the UK and Ireland through March 2024 despite the most significant of three SSW’s and favourable MJO cold phases of 7-8-1. And even the most negative NAO since January when we saw our 2nd and final cold (for some), snowy spell of winter 2023-24. March anomaly. MET OFFICE: Spring starts […]
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