Meteorological winter 2023-24 draws to a close today. Given how mild February turned out to be, I think it’s safe to say many will quickly forget this one.

That being said, it’s had it’s fair share of flips, extremes and oddities… From one of the coldest December openings since 2010 to heavy rains, multiple named storms (10 named from Sept to Jan, 12 since Aug). January started warm for UK, while coldest since 1999 for Scandinavia.

Between 10-20th, cold dominated with heavy northern snow while S England witnessed some of the coldest January nights in 13 years. January’s final 10 days grew warm, wet and stormy featuring the UK’s warmest January day on record (19.9C Achfary, Highland)

While December turned out warmer than average, January average to marginally below and February likely 2nd warmest, the winter as a whole likely falls within the UK’s top 10 warmest and wettest.

December 2023

MET OFFICE: December 2023 Monthly Weather Report

January 2024 anomaly

MET OFFICE: A month of contrasts for January’s weather

Febuary 2024 anomaly

MET OFFICE: Warmest February on record for England and Wales

???? England and Wales had their respective warmest Februarys on record according to provisional Met Office statistics.

???? Many parts of southern England had over twice their average rainfall.

Find out more below, or read this thread for a look at February and winter’s stats ????

— Met Office (@metoffice) March 1, 2024

Past 90 days (Dec-Feb anomaly)

Interestingly, up until January 24th, winter was actually average to slightly below.

As you can see, Scandinavia along with much of Mongolia, China and Greenland are among the few regions of the entire hemisphere to have observed a colder than average winter.

Here’s what was said…

Europe Winter Forecast 2023-24

December-January recap and score!

Europe February 2024 Outlook (Scoring Winter So Far)

February was a massive bust!

After scoring 8-10 for both Dec, Jan and the two months combined, February has to free wall to perhaps 2 out of 10 which plummets the winter score to 6 out of 10 due to 2 of 3 months being largely a success!

What happened to the winter forecast beyond January?

Winter was EXPECTED to be WARMER THAN AVERAGE overall but with swings back and forth. While February was forecast to be coldest of the three months, something changed…

I believe there was a delayed response to the strong El Nino which the equatorial Pacific was cooking at +2C above average (region 3.4 and 1.2) between October and late December with little atmospheric response.

With the SOI index plunging to -19.9 for the mid Jan to mid-Feb 30-day MEAN, this was the atmosphere finally responding to those +2C above average central and eastern Pacific waters which enhanced the subtropic jet in both Pacific and Atlantic and forced the northern (polar) branch north.

The SSW’s of autumn and December and MJO did their job at helping me successfully track the warm and cold spells ended once the atmosphere responded to the warm Pacific.

This overwhelmingly warm 2nd half to winter was indeed feared in my forecast, see below!

Mild option can’t be ignored!

I slightly fear December 2015/Winter 2013-14 & 2019-20

While I’m going for the ‘back and forth’ type winter in 2023-24 with mix of warm and cold, one cannot rule out the Atlantic dominated winter or high pressure ‘too close’.

Due to the strong El Nino and uncertainties regarding whether it’s east or central based as well as whether it’s peaked or not, December 2015 comes to mind.

Also, winter 2013-14 is there too, possibly due to the type of strat warming we’re likely to see in December. Canadian Strat warming’s can fuel arctic outbreaks into North America but in turn drive a strong Atlantic jet straight at the UK & Ireland. Great for North America, not so for Western Europe.

While a +IOD in itself may have helped fuel the near record strong polar vortex in early 2020, the El Nino and east QBO likely offset’s this and according to Richard Traut’s research on the combo of an El Nino and -QBO, there is a greater chance at seeing an SSW, likely beyond New Year.

My Weather Station Stats for February 2024

MAX TEMP: 12.9C MIN TEMP: -6.8C WETTEST DAY: 36.80 mm PEAK GUST: 62.3 kph WET DAYS: 24 DRY DAYS: 5 MAX PRESS: 1022 mb MIN PRESS: 971 mb TOTAL RAIN: 97.22 mm AVG Temp: 4.4C

SNOW STATS: DAYS WITH SNOW COVER: 2 CONSECUTIVE: 2 MAX DEPTH: 1″

Given how warm the Atlantic is, I’m not in the slightest bit surprised that UK winter’s have been warming.

and getting wetter.

How’s March looking?

While it appears TWO Major SSW’s occurred this winter, the first (mid-January) had little tropospheric blocking influence and a subsequent colder signal, in fact it was quite the opposite with a powering up +AO/NAO with enhanced zonal jet (250+ mph) across both Pacific and Atlantic. This provided a hosepipe of warmth and rainfall, enhancing storminess on west coasts of the continents indicative of a strong to super El Nino.

The 2nd Major SSW (mid Feb) appears to have made an attempt at building heights over the arctic and high latitudes (-AO/NAO) but without any particularly cold air on this side of the pole, there’s little cold for any blocking pattern to work with currently. Will that change?

With warmth dominating North America and Europe, the real cold is in China and surrounding countries.

Here’s the past 7-days. Note the warmth vs cold.

This northward heat transfer will help push the AO, possibly NAO negative as we step into March but the most recent SSW appears conducive for N America cold, less so Europe.

Note the warm pools over east N America and Europe, these are very strong El Nino-esk and is doing a good job at resisting any cold.

I think any cold we see in March is modest somewhat transient and overall an average to above average temp anomaly for UK/Ireland. After some very wet weather, the wettest conditions could push south, kinda like what we’ve seen in February.

While a strengthening block is likely to develop between the 4-8th the question is how much cold air is available? We here in Western Europe appear to see some Siberia to North America sourced cold through the first week or so of March then potentially an easterly flow beneath a Scandi high into week 2. Temperatures are likely to remain close to either side of average given the weak cold and advancing sun strength. The SSW favours N America and E Asia, not Europe.

Here’s a look at the first half of March through the eyes of the GFS ensemble 5-day increments.

2m temp anomaly

My hunch is much of the same with blocking to the north, relatively weak troughiness underneath with average temps.

However, given the resilience of the Azores high and drought in NE Iberia and warm Atl/W Med, I wouldn’t be surprised to see building of the high and an early taste of summer perhaps in the final 10 days…

In the 30-day GEFS ensemble, note the W trough/E ridge over N America, Sure, pretty strong blocking NNW of UK but I think a lack of cold in Europe means this will be a waste of a good block.

Interesting to see average to below average temps.

Featured image credit: Iain Cameron

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