Current Overview

The current large-scale pattern is likely being driven or aided by a strong MJO rotation through phases 7-8-1 which is building pressure to the north and forcing the jet stream south.

NAO dips to lowest negative since at least January.

The above is driving a rather turbulent run-up to the upcoming Easter weekend. As of Wednesday PM, a large low occupies a vast expanse of the eastern North Atlantic essentially stretching from Iceland to Morocco, centred just off Ireland’s west coast.

A powerful jet stream exiting North America and higher pressure over Europe is forcing the deepening of a NE Atlantic trough and an incubation region for low pressure deepening. Air being forced east via the JS is coming up against the resistance of the high over Europe and so the air is forced to dive south and pile up causing the low to deepen W of UK/Ireland.

Note the below jet stream and mean sea level pressure chart. Note the dip over the east NA and deepening of the LP just west of UK.

The upper trough deepens.

The low is down to 956mb at the time of writing but it’s influence covers a vast area stretching some 2,000 miles.

Visible satellite as of early Wednesday eve.

A strengthening high NW of the UK over Greenland is pushing arctic air S on it’s east flank and this cold air is causing sleet and snow as well as rain to break out over high ground from Cornwall to Caithness.

Multiple fronts associated with the low swings bands of precipitation north over the next couple of days.

Lot’s of wind, rain, sleet and hill snow cycles around the low.

Very cold air remains north of the UK mainland but the UK and Ireland finds itself in modest cold and enough for wintry precip for some.

The next few days sees that MILDER air win the battle and it’s thanks to the LP position just W of UK which means the flow is S.

As we edge towards the Easter bank holiday weekend, LP continues to drive moisture northwards over UK/Ire initially and with sunny spells, those showers are likely to be in the form of thundery downpours Thursday and through Good Friday.

A spell of particularly windy conditions shall affect S UK and NW France through early Thursday as the centre of the low passes near to SW Eng where 50 mph wind gust are likely across a broad area including inland. In exposure, 70+.

Thursday into Good Friday sees the low sinks south courtesy of building high pressure to the north. With new centres of low pressure developing at the base of the trough (S Iberia/Morocco), the focus of bad weather turns to Iberia.

Easter Weekend Breakdown

Good Friday

While low pressure eases it’s grip with less wind and showers particularly across Scotland, showers still linger for England and Wales into the afternoon, the focus of unsettled conditions is across France and Iberia.

Highs 8-12C in the North, 12 to 15C in South.

Saturday

Though some showers will continue Saturday for particularly western UK and Ireland, they become fewer as the low drifts further away from the UK and pressure builds leading to more sun and a light SSE flow. It will feel pleasant in the late March sun.

Highs 12-15C in North, 13-17C in South

Easter Sunday

Easter Day is looking rather decent for the majority of the UK and Ireland with mix of sun and cloud and mild temps after a possibly cool to cold start beneath clear skies.

However the models suggest the development of low pressure over N France which is likely to lift north bringing an increase cloud and shower risk to south or southeast England. There’s a chance of winds picking up accompanied by heavy, persistent rain and or hefty showers and embedded thunderstorms later in the day and evening.

As can be seen in the below chart, northern UK stays dry and likely quite sunny.

Highs 9-13C in North, 12-16C South

Easter Monday

Like Sunday, Easter Monday looks largely quiet to start for the majority except for the Southeast and possibly East but as the day progresses, that low which developed over France could enhance showers or longer spells of rain further north. This could bring the return of a more widespread unsettled picture.

Highs 8-11C North, 12-15C South

Tags: easter 2024, easter forecast, Easter weekend, featured