United Kingdom & Ireland
June, like February, March, April and May has been dominated by wild swings in temperature. One of the key contributors of Europe’s extreme pattern and flips has been down to a record long-lasting negative North Atlantic Oscillation. The -NAO has aided a continuous amplified/blocked pattern. These blocked setups allow extreme heat north and extreme cool […]
It’s been a wet start to the work week across southeast England and this heavy and persistent rain will push north and west tonight beginning stuck. The reason? a deepening low is tracking slowly north out of France. The persistent nature of this rainfall over a prolonged time frame has led to a widespread yellow […]
As an unusually deep June low spread heavy rain and strong winds into England and Wales, high pressure pumped intense early summer heat into eastern Scandinavia today. The thermometer climbed into the 30s for a few sites in Finland. A high of 32.2C at Oulu, this marked Finland’s earliest 32C on record. It was warmer […]
After a dry May, June and summer has opened soggy and on a very different note to last year. Low pressure has dominated the UK over the last 10 days and with SW winds blowing across warmer than normal water between the Azores and UK, rainfall has likely been enhanced some. Is there drier times […]
Despite a warmer middle part of May (especially for Scotland and Scandinavia), the month is winding up below normal throughout central and west-central Europe. Like in April, warmth has been the rule over Russia. A dry first half to the month has given way to a wetter 2nd half and a downright soggy finish for […]
Up until the 13th, May has been a very cool month unless you live in the southern half of Iberia or Russia. In fact the first half to May 2019 may have been the coldest in several years, especially for central Europe while warmest on record for Russia. The previous two May’s was dominated by […]
My hunch in my 2019 summer forecast may be coming to fruition as we enter mid-May. The consensus in most models show high pressure remaining largely dominant over or just north of Scotland through most of the remainder of May and into June. Give or take a few interruptions. With spells of lower heights down […]
The UK is in the cold air to end the week but through the weekend change arrives from the west as a deepening low tracks west to east across southern England/northern France bringing wind and gales, eventually this feature reaches Italy late Sunday into Monday. As the low drifts into Italy, our cold pool leaves […]
Welcome to my 9th annual European summer forecast. As always, when compiling this forecast for the upcoming June-August period there are multiple factors which have been taken into consideration which could influence the summer pattern. These include global and regional sea surface temperature anomalies, El Nino, the mild winter just observed and rainfall distribution over […]
Lot’s of talk about an impending heat wave coming up for the UK. As a matter of fact it’s turning cooler towards the weekend as an air mass of arctic origin dives south via a cold front. The model at 850mb shows the air that’s north of Scandinavia sweeping south. Convective snow showers could well […]
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