United Kingdom & Ireland
We all know it’s turning colder as a direct consequence of the late December sudden stratospheric warming. In fact as our tropospheric winds reverse from west to east, the stratospheric winds are returning to a westerly as the vortex up at 10hpa begins to recover. Thankfully for cold weather lovers like myself, this cold spell […]
GFS snow through the next 10 days. GFS ensemble 2m temp anomaly
There’s an argument to be had. Is the extreme, meridional upper air pattern over Europe to open 2019 a response of the sudden stratospheric warming which peaked around Christmas with split occurring around January 1-2? I believe there’s at least some sort of linkage given that one of the two, maybe three split daughter vortexes […]
Huge snowfall buries Alps as upper level winds turn easterly allowing Siberian air to head westwards
The much anticipated colder, snowier pattern has emerged and progresses south, southwestwards into central and southern Europe. Stopping it from spreading westwards is a very strong ridge anchored over the British Isles which reached record strength as we greeted 2019. This pressure pattern has resulted in a rather mundane Christmas to New Year period here […]
The sudden stratospheric warming has now crucially progressed across the pole and headed towards the Davis Straits as we entered 2019. A split in the vortex is expected over the next day or so. Now we all know that there’s a delay or lag between the initial SSWE at 10mb and by the time the […]
The pattern has been mild across most of the continents of the Northern Hemisphere with the aid of a continued amplified MJO progressing through phases 2,3,4 and 5 which supports a neutral to positive AO/NAO. Though NOTHING is certain until we see the pattern evolve, there are more favorable atmospheric drivers/signals/components coming together which supports […]
Well I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas. Now we’re in that gap between Christmas and New Year festivities and the weather is not particularly exciting to say the least. No cold, no snow, no storms but parked between weather systems which aren’t moving that much due to a relatively slow upper flow. Briefly […]
The month of December has panned out pretty much as expected, predominantly mild, often wet and driven by a mainly +AO/NAO. In the 30 day animation below, you can see the initial blocking then return to negative heights across much of the arctic (+AO) which has led to mild over the continents but note the […]
Are you dreaming of a white Christmas? Thanks to a positive AO/NAO, it’s been a mild and wet December so far and it looks to remain that way for the last weekend before Christmas. As we head into Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, high pressure builds over the UK settling things down. So, sunshine should […]
If models prove correct with late month SSWE, a 1979 or 2010 style January-February is on the table!
The latest GFS ensemble continues to show an end of the month SSWE which could make for a very interesting January ahead. There’s still plenty of room of disappointment but our chances for cold is increasing. Note the temperature difference at 10mb over the Arctic between now and January 1st. Rapid warming throughout the depth […]
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