United Kingdom & Ireland
I know I keep going on about this but I feel strong about this. There has been a great deal of hype and buying into individual ‘cold model runs’ lately. Do that was caution at this early stage, especially when the models see big cold blocking patterns but with little PV disruption. While there has […]
There’s no getting away from this. I didn’t see it coming this early. We’re potentially looking at the deepest negative AO/NAO for November since 2010 and this is rather ominous for so early. Low solar could be triggering this early blocking and could be an indicator of the level of winter ahead. A 2009-10 repeat […]
I have to admit that I’m struggling with the pattern and shifts over the next week or so. I’m very conflicted but here’s what I wrote in a post earlier today…. In the short 6-10 day range, cold spells are possible for the British Isles but when looking at the bigger picture and longer 2 […]
The last 10 days or so has seen a battle between Atlantic low pressure and continental high pressure. For the UK, particularly northern and western areas, they’ve succumbed to soggy low pressure but east and southeast parts have gradually been drying out as the strong continental high begins to back westwards. The next 7 days […]
A mild October ended with an exceptional cold spell for Europe, particularly for France and Spain thanks to a large and deep low drifting north out of the Med. There now appears to be some evidence that a deep depression will move on a rare track from S to N to CTRL Europe on Tue. […]
There’s been a lot of hype of late about a cold second half to November for the UK. As stated in my recent winter forecast, this unlikely. More or less all parameters point to a firm WEST, SOUTHWEST Atlantic pattern for Northwest Europe and this could remain the case up until Christmas. Why? 1) While […]
The 2018-19 winter forecast is based on and factoring in all atmospheric/oceanic drivers currently in play. This year’s forecast will take into consideration the current ENSO index (El Nino Southern Oscillation), the global as well as Atlantic SSTA (sea surface temperature anomaly) profile, arctic sea ice extent and current status of the solar cycle. There […]
In what’s been a warm September and October across much of Europe. However, despite Poland experiencing it’s warmest September on record, a clear, cold end to the month drove temperatures to -7.9C in the Czarny Dunajec district. September temperature anomaly Czarny Dunajec miał dzisiaj -5.8 na 2 m i – 9.2 przy gruncie. Normalnie szok bo […]
Halloween arrives on Wednesday this year and whether you’re out trick or treating Wednesday, Thursday or Friday, the overall theme turns from cool and settled to begin the week to milder and more showery midweek (Halloween itself) to potentially very wet and windy by the time we reach Friday evening. Once dark (typically by 5.15/5.30pm […]
This October will be remembered for it’s stormy spells and ups and downs in temperature with record heat (low 20s in northern Scotland, Scandinavia) and in the final week, possibly record cold! October is of course a transition month and it is often turbulent. It’s been a warm month throughout the continent. So, how cold do […]
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