United Kingdom & Ireland

Scotland/UK: Chilly Weekend of Wind, Rain, Snow Replaces Summer Sun and Heat

Written by on June 5, 2020 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Scotland/UK: Chilly Weekend of Wind, Rain, Snow Replaces Summer Sun and Heat

After yet another warm, wet winter, it’s been nothing short of a stunning spring for the UK (sunniest, driest on record) thanks to high pressure dominance. This flip can be at least partially attributed to a shift in MJO. While UK temps peaked at 28.3C at the beginning of the week in Cromdale, Speyside, we’ve […]

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Europe June 2020 Outlook (Sunniest, driest UK spring )

Written by on May 31, 2020 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe June 2020 Outlook (Sunniest, driest UK spring )

It’s been a May of stark rainfall and temperature contrasts. Thanks to the presence of an Atlantic weather front, heavy and persistent rain fell widely across Northwest Scotland with 141mm of rain fell within 48 hours at Achngart in Glen Shiel. In contrast, Benson, Oxfordshire has seen NO RAIN this month due to persistent high […]

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Europe Summer Forecast 2020 & Current Global Warming Situation

Written by on May 21, 2020 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe Summer Forecast 2020 & Current Global Warming Situation

Welcome to my 10th annual European summer forecast. As always, when compiling this forecast for the upcoming June-August period there are multiple factors which have been taken into consideration which could influence the summer pattern. These include global and regional sea surface temperature anomalies, the current and projected ENSO state, the mild, wet winter followed […]

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Towns in Scotland, England, Wales Endure Coldest May Night’s in 20-40 Years But Northern Ireland Takes The Prize!

Written by on May 14, 2020 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Towns in Scotland, England, Wales Endure Coldest May Night’s in 20-40 Years But Northern Ireland Takes The Prize!

It’s been quite the May for cold throughout the British Isles and Ireland thanks to dry arctic or subarctic air trapped within a dominant blocking high over ground starved of rain. Cloudless skies have been common place in recent weeks as seen in the below visible satellite image. While April as well as May has […]

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Summer & Winter Battle It Out During April, May Following UK’s 4th Warmest Winter

Written by on May 9, 2020 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Summer & Winter Battle It Out During April, May Following UK’s 4th Warmest Winter

After a non-winter, all of a sudden old man winter gets here 3 months late and doesn’t want to leave. A +AO/NAO low pressure dominated winter has abruptly flipped to a -AO/NAO high pressure dominated spring. We’ve went from 200% of normal rainfall widely back in February to just 20% of normal rain during April. […]

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Strong, Resilient Polar Vortex ‘Finally Breaksdown’ & Drains Sending Major May Cold Into US/UK

Written by on May 6, 2020 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Strong, Resilient Polar Vortex ‘Finally Breaksdown’ & Drains Sending Major May Cold Into US/UK

There’s been nothing normal about the polar vortex over the past 10 months. After being record strong throughout the past winter, producing the 4th warmest winter for the UK, 6th warmest for the US and warmest on record for Europe as a whole, the final stratospheric warming has now finally unraveled. Perhaps late due to […]

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Europe May 2020 Outlook

Written by on April 28, 2020 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe May 2020 Outlook

April couldn’t have been more different to February for Western Europe with frequent Atlantic lows (active rossby wave train) bringing record rainfall to the UK. This ‘stuck’ pattern was abruptly replaced by only another stuck pattern, a blocked high (stationary wave) which brought 4 straight weeks without a drop of rain for some. The tap […]

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Enhanced MJO Set To Return Bringing Wet, Unsettled Start To May For UK

Written by on April 22, 2020 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Enhanced MJO Set To Return Bringing Wet, Unsettled Start To May For UK

If you’ve read my latest articles and watched the videos then you’ll be well aware that our warm, wet winter was largely down to the warm ‘enhanced’ phases of the madden julian oscillation. The northward heat release fueled a highly active wintertime rossby wave train. At the end of March, the MJO finally weakened into […]

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High Pressure Brings Big Temperature Swings To Scottish Highlands

Written by on April 20, 2020 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
High Pressure Brings Big Temperature Swings To Scottish Highlands

A persistent high pressure system anchored between Scotland and Scandinavia has led to a complete shutdown of ‘weather’ and produced significant April rainfall deficits from UK through Central Europe as a result. This blocking high has re-routed all weather north into Scandinavia and south into Iberia. 500mb height anomaly for April so far. Rainfall anomaly […]

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From Record Wet February To One of the Driest April’s for UK?

Written by on April 18, 2020 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
From Record Wet February To One of the Driest April’s for UK?

What’s going on? We have gone from relentless rain to unusually dry in just 6-8 weeks. From almost UK-wide flood warnings in February/early March to little or no rain from March 19 to April 16. This was the 500mb height anomaly for February. This was the result. A record wet February for the UK. As […]

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