United Kingdom & Ireland
After yet another warm, wet winter, it’s been nothing short of a stunning spring for the UK (sunniest, driest on record) thanks to high pressure dominance. This flip can be at least partially attributed to a shift in MJO. While UK temps peaked at 28.3C at the beginning of the week in Cromdale, Speyside, we’ve […]
It’s been a May of stark rainfall and temperature contrasts. Thanks to the presence of an Atlantic weather front, heavy and persistent rain fell widely across Northwest Scotland with 141mm of rain fell within 48 hours at Achngart in Glen Shiel. In contrast, Benson, Oxfordshire has seen NO RAIN this month due to persistent high […]
Welcome to my 10th annual European summer forecast. As always, when compiling this forecast for the upcoming June-August period there are multiple factors which have been taken into consideration which could influence the summer pattern. These include global and regional sea surface temperature anomalies, the current and projected ENSO state, the mild, wet winter followed […]
It’s been quite the May for cold throughout the British Isles and Ireland thanks to dry arctic or subarctic air trapped within a dominant blocking high over ground starved of rain. Cloudless skies have been common place in recent weeks as seen in the below visible satellite image. While April as well as May has […]
After a non-winter, all of a sudden old man winter gets here 3 months late and doesn’t want to leave. A +AO/NAO low pressure dominated winter has abruptly flipped to a -AO/NAO high pressure dominated spring. We’ve went from 200% of normal rainfall widely back in February to just 20% of normal rain during April. […]
There’s been nothing normal about the polar vortex over the past 10 months. After being record strong throughout the past winter, producing the 4th warmest winter for the UK, 6th warmest for the US and warmest on record for Europe as a whole, the final stratospheric warming has now finally unraveled. Perhaps late due to […]
April couldn’t have been more different to February for Western Europe with frequent Atlantic lows (active rossby wave train) bringing record rainfall to the UK. This ‘stuck’ pattern was abruptly replaced by only another stuck pattern, a blocked high (stationary wave) which brought 4 straight weeks without a drop of rain for some. The tap […]
If you’ve read my latest articles and watched the videos then you’ll be well aware that our warm, wet winter was largely down to the warm ‘enhanced’ phases of the madden julian oscillation. The northward heat release fueled a highly active wintertime rossby wave train. At the end of March, the MJO finally weakened into […]
A persistent high pressure system anchored between Scotland and Scandinavia has led to a complete shutdown of ‘weather’ and produced significant April rainfall deficits from UK through Central Europe as a result. This blocking high has re-routed all weather north into Scandinavia and south into Iberia. 500mb height anomaly for April so far. Rainfall anomaly […]
What’s going on? We have gone from relentless rain to unusually dry in just 6-8 weeks. From almost UK-wide flood warnings in February/early March to little or no rain from March 19 to April 16. This was the 500mb height anomaly for February. This was the result. A record wet February for the UK. As […]
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