Archive for November, 2018

Frigid plunge into eastern North America shall continue fueling stormy pattern for UK next week

Written by on November 30, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Frigid plunge into eastern North America shall continue fueling stormy pattern for UK next week

As we commence December and meteorological winter 18-19 tomorrow, the next surge of arctic air looks set to drill down the eastern side of North America early next week. This in turn will strengthen our predominantly zonal Atlantic jet thanks to the NAO going back neutral which means don’t expect an end to this wet, […]

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November 2018 becomes snowiest on record for parts of Midwest & Northeast, Coldest since 2014

Written by on November 29, 2018 in United States of America with 0 Comments
November 2018 becomes snowiest on record for parts of Midwest & Northeast, Coldest since 2014

November 2018 is hands down coldest since the benchmark November of 2014. While 2014 may have been colder than November 2018, several Midwest cities and some spots over New England have seen their snowiest start to a season or snowiest November on record. For the season to date, it’s been the snowiest since the big […]

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Same low hits twice this week & Atlantic pattern likely continues through at least 1st 10 days of December

Written by on November 28, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Same low hits twice this week & Atlantic pattern likely continues through at least 1st 10 days of December

Wind and rain is in firm control of our weather to end November and commence December. Lot’s of ‘cold talk’ of late and wishcasting but with the NAO going positive and polar vortex core leaning towards Greenland/Scandinavia, there’s no sign of anything other than an Atlantic pattern for NW Europe through the next 10 days […]

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100+ year old Thanksgiving & November cold records fall from Nunavut to New York

Written by on November 27, 2018 in United States of America with 0 Comments
100+ year old Thanksgiving & November cold records fall from Nunavut to New York

Over the Thanksgiving holiday, one of the coldest November arctic outbreaks descended upon the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Not only was it the coldest Thanksgiving day/night for many, it was also the coldest weather ever recorded in November. In order to break monthly cold records which have stood 100+ years, Canada needs to have an expansive […]

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Turning wetter, windier, warmer but stormy period?

Written by on November 25, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Turning wetter, windier, warmer but stormy period?

I’m just heading off to the hills but wanted to share a few thoughts on the return to wetter, windier and somewhat warmer. With the increase in thermal gradient over North America, our trans Atlantic jet is strengthening and as a result we’ll see the return to a more active pattern this week ahead. As […]

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US December 2018 Outlook

Written by on November 24, 2018 in United States of America with 0 Comments
US December 2018 Outlook

From earliest snow as far south as Galveston, TX to coldest Thanksgiving on record for parts of the Northeast, November 2018 will go down as one of the coldest in US history. Month so far. There are a couple of contributors to such a chilly November. A cold September for much of Canada and building […]

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European December 2018 Outlook

Written by on November 23, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
European December 2018 Outlook

Up until mid November it had been a warm month with temps soaring to 18C as far north as Kinlochewe, Northwest Highlands. The 2nd half of the month turned seasonal to slightly below average as winds turned from southerly to easterly courtesy of the development of a powerful Scandinavian high. The colder flow wasn’t enough […]

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New York City faces coldest Thanksgiving since 1901 after earliest 6″+ snowfall on record!

Written by on November 21, 2018 in United States of America with 0 Comments
New York City faces coldest Thanksgiving since 1901 after earliest 6″+ snowfall on record!

The recent 6.4 inch snowfall which fell on NYC’s Central Park not only was the city’s 2nd snowiest November day on record but it was the earliest 6+ inch snowstorm on record. Only 1882 saw more snow on a single November day and that was 15 days later. 1st snow in New York city pic.twitter.com/Sax7DPbBxi […]

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Even in late 2018, how can long range models be so wrong even 10 days out?

Written by on November 19, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United States of America with 0 Comments
Even in late 2018, how can long range models be so wrong even 10 days out?

You’d think that by now, modelling would be at least close to be correct. I’m not talking ‘months’ in advance but more 10 days… The CFSv2 showed a very warm November for the US with warmer and warmer runs the closer it got to November. In reality we’re witnessing one of the coldest Novembers. As […]

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Being Careful not to predict cold too quick

Written by on November 19, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Being Careful not to predict cold too quick

I know I keep going on about this but I feel strong about this. There has been a great deal of hype and buying into individual ‘cold model runs’ lately. Do that was caution at this early stage, especially when the models see big cold blocking patterns but with little PV disruption. While there has […]

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