Archive for 2018

Cold 2nd half to Winter 2018-19? MJO expected to enter cold phases as SSWE causes vortex split!

Cold 2nd half to Winter 2018-19? MJO expected to enter cold phases as SSWE causes vortex split!

The pattern has been mild across most of the continents of the Northern Hemisphere with the aid of a continued amplified MJO progressing through phases 2,3,4 and 5 which supports a neutral to positive AO/NAO. Though NOTHING is certain until we see the pattern evolve, there are more favorable atmospheric drivers/signals/components coming together which supports […]

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A Rather Boring Christmas to New Year week but the calm before the cold?

Written by on December 26, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
A Rather Boring Christmas to New Year week but the calm before the cold?

Well I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas. Now we’re in that gap between Christmas and New Year festivities and the weather is not particularly exciting to say the least. No cold, no snow, no storms but parked between weather systems which aren’t moving that much due to a relatively slow upper flow. Briefly […]

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US January 2019 Outlook

Written by on December 25, 2018 in United States of America with 0 Comments
US January 2019 Outlook

After a cold October and November for much of the Lower 48, December started off on a similarly cold note with the aid of a retrograding blocking high from the Canadian Archipelago to Alaska. However, as you can see from the below 30 day animation, around the 10th saw a 360 flip with ridge replaced […]

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Europe January 2019 Outlook

Written by on December 22, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe January 2019 Outlook

The month of December has panned out pretty much as expected, predominantly mild, often wet and driven by a mainly +AO/NAO. In the 30 day animation below, you can see the initial blocking then return to negative heights across much of the arctic (+AO) which has led to mild over the continents but note the […]

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Dreaming of a White Christmas 2018? Dream on….

Written by on December 22, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Dreaming of a White Christmas 2018? Dream on….

Are you dreaming of a white Christmas? Thanks to a positive AO/NAO, it’s been a mild and wet December so far and it looks to remain that way for the last weekend before Christmas. As we head into Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, high pressure builds over the UK settling things down. So, sunshine should […]

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MJO Driving the US Pattern and Sudden Stratospheric Warming?

Written by on December 19, 2018 in United States of America with 1 Comment
MJO Driving the US Pattern and Sudden Stratospheric Warming?

The persistent thunderstorm activity over the Indian Ocean has been a strong phase 3 indicator of the MJO, a warm phase for the Lower 48. As this convection weakens, we’re going through phases 4 and next week, into 5. As you can see below, phase 4 remains warm but 5 shows cooling out West. Note […]

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If models prove correct with late month SSWE, a 1979 or 2010 style January-February is on the table!

If models prove correct with late month SSWE, a 1979 or 2010 style January-February is on the table!

The latest GFS ensemble continues to show an end of the month SSWE which could make for a very interesting January ahead. There’s still plenty of room of disappointment but our chances for cold is increasing. Note the temperature difference at 10mb over the Arctic between now and January 1st. Rapid warming throughout the depth […]

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UK/Ireland: Pattern changing Storm Deirdre brings flooding rain, freezing rain, snow and severe gales

Written by on December 15, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
UK/Ireland: Pattern changing Storm Deirdre brings flooding rain, freezing rain, snow and severe gales

The Atlantic is making it’s comeback after a near week dominated by cool, easterly winds. Storm Deirdre is making the change from cold continent back to milder, stormier Atlantic as the jet stream strengthens. The tight thermal gradient marked by the storm is helping it deepen on final approach to the UK and so the […]

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North American pattern looking likely to turn from mild to cold in time for Christmas…

Written by on December 14, 2018 in United States of America with 0 Comments
North American pattern looking likely to turn from mild to cold in time for Christmas…

It may be a mild pattern now across a large portion of the continent but the models are seeing the return to a colder, snowier pattern east of the Rockies as we approach Christmas. In fact much of the continent goes from red to blue within the next 2 weeks. Notice in the GFS ensemble […]

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Could Indian Ocean Thunderstorms Trigger a Late December Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event?

Written by on December 12, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Could Indian Ocean Thunderstorms Trigger a Late December Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event?

I’ve held off for about a week or so on talking about the stratospheric polar vortex because we all know how modelling suggests one thing only to let us down with the opposite. We know the stratospheric polar vortex has been under a degree of stress and as a result it’s been stretching and flexing. […]

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