The Atlantic is making it’s comeback after a near week dominated by cool, easterly winds. Storm Deirdre is making the change from cold continent back to milder, stormier Atlantic as the jet stream strengthens.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits
The tight thermal gradient marked by the storm is helping it deepen on final approach to the UK and so the weather conditions are highly varied depending upon where you are.

Credit: Met Office
The storm at outside dynamics look good for possible sting jet formation.
https://twitter.com/wxcharts/status/1073695412530409473
Strong warm air advection increases freezing rain potential.
https://twitter.com/MillinMan1/status/1073809867608072192
Deirdre is driving a lot of moisture in and this is falling as rain over Ireland, snow over Highland, Southern Uplands and N Pennines but freezing rain in other parts.

Credit: wxcharts.eu
Tricky day for forecasting precipitation type…

wxcharts.eu
Essentially we have a mild Atlantic low which marks a pattern change but as it an environment of tighter thermal gradient, it’s deepening and therefore strengthened at it’s moved over the UK this Saturday afternoon. The increase in temperature gradient has aided the tightening of pressure within the low. As a result, fairly widespread gale force winds have exceeding 50 mph at sea level while near 120 mph over the tops of some Scottish mountains.
Ahead of the storm’s main cold front, it remains cold but behind it, the mild Atlantic air has taken over the lowest mile of the atmosphere, primarily over Ireland and Northern Ireland where heavy wind driven rain has caused flooding, aided by already saturated ground.
For low level parts of mainland Britain, rain has been falling and some of this rain has frozen on the below freezing ground but led to flooding in areas of southwest England and Wales where it’s reached 10-13C thius afternoon.
However, from the Midlands to Central Lowlands, it’s struggled to get above the freezing mark. Factor in the strong winds and it’s felt bitter. However, a warm layer associated with the system has managed to punch through the cold air and so this makes for a trickier forecast precipitation wise.
Mid afternoon temps and wind chill.

Credit: Meteoceil

Credit: Meteoceil
While freezing or below at ground level, it was above freezing at around 850mb or 5,000ft.

Credit: wxcharts.eu
With this in mind, a rare AMBER warning for ICE was issued.

Credit: Met Office
In the warm windy air, Ireland experiences flooding!
https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1073953950032900098
In the cold air but with warmer air above, Co Durham and other parts of England and Scotland are observing freezing rain.
https://twitter.com/PaulKingstonNNP/status/1073967863386566656
https://twitter.com/RichardPeasland/status/1073945029482307590
https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1073974514348896256
https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/1073972539842588672
https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1073950616496562176
and where the lowest mile of the atmosphere remains at or below freezing, like in the Highlands, it’s snow!
https://twitter.com/imamberzoe/status/1073969715503087617
https://twitter.com/trafficscotland/status/1073981226447499269
Once Deirdre passes, mild Atlantic air will fill our atmosphere and by next week we’re in warm southwest winds ahead of another front.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits
The GFS ensemble shows a warmer than normal pattern now through Christmas Day.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Despite this, just keep in mind what’s going on way up in the stratosphere…..





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