Mark Vogan

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Europe March 2024 Outlook

Written by on February 29, 2024 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe March 2024 Outlook

Meteorological winter 2023-24 draws to a close today. Given how mild February turned out to be, I think it’s safe to say many will quickly forget this one. That being said, it’s had it’s fair share of flips, extremes and oddities… From one of the coldest December openings since 2010 to heavy rains, multiple named […]

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Asia Takes Extremes To Next Level

Written by on February 27, 2024 in Asia, Rest of World with 0 Comments
Asia Takes Extremes To Next Level

It’s been a crazy past 6-12 months across large swathes of Asia. Relentless record heat with spells of extreme cold. The wild and erratic swings have been eye popping. As you can see, warmth has been dominant in the past 90 days or the period between late November through late February. Anomaly between 16-23 Feb! […]

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Europe February 2024 Outlook (Scoring Winter So Far)

Written by on January 31, 2024 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe February 2024 Outlook (Scoring Winter So Far)

It’s been quite the autumn and winter so far with excessive rains, swings back and forth of cold and warm as well as multiple storms. 10 named storms since 1 Sept through January Name Date named Date of impact on UK and/or Ireland and/or Netherlands Agnes 25 September 2023 27 – 28 September 2023 Babet […]

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Coldest Air In Decades Affects Europe & North America

Coldest Air In Decades Affects Europe & North America

While record warmth affects some, record cold affects others through the first half of January 2024. Scandinavia got in on the act first with some remarkably low temperatures unseen for many years. The cold began in October and was building through November and December. 2024 likely got off to the coldest open to a new […]

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Europe January 2024 Outlook

Written by on December 29, 2023 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe January 2024 Outlook

December follows October and November as being a very wet month. It started cold and dry then turned very mild but also very wet. Christmas to New Year has seen it turn somewhat colder and snowier, especially in the north. The month overall coincides quite well with my December Outlook (scoring 8 out of 10) […]

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Europe December 2023 Outlook

Written by on December 2, 2023 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe December 2023 Outlook

The heavy rains which affected the Northern UK during October shifted south to southern areas and particularly France during November. The final 10 days turned increasingly cold. November started extremely wet, on the heels of October… Eastern Scotland had its wettest October on record in a series which goes back to 1836. It was also: […]

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Europe Winter Forecast 2023-24

Written by on November 30, 2023 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe Winter Forecast 2023-24

Welcome to my 14th Europe winter forecast. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the 90-day meteorological winter period will be based on the climate drivers currently at play. I’ll look at the current AMO & PDO state, El Nino, IOD, MJO, QBO, Solar. What could each driver mean individually and collectively? Another important factor […]

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Winter 2023-24 Thoughts: Update #3 (INCLUDES VIDEO!)

Written by on November 4, 2023 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Winter 2023-24 Thoughts: Update #3 (INCLUDES VIDEO!)

Key Factors Current Global state (ocean & land temperature anomaly) On a global scale, our oceans are about as warm as any time since at least the beginning of the satellite era. Note the level of widespread warmth particularly from equator to arctic. CDAS temperature anomaly for land and ocean YEAR-TO-DATE! Despite the warmth, we […]

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Europe November 2023 Outlook

Written by on October 31, 2023 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe November 2023 Outlook

As October draws to a wet, blustery end, here’s a look back at what we witnessed during October 2023. WHAT WAS SAID: Europe October 2023 Outlook What happened… Remarkably warm start to October following record warm September! Update 38.2 MONTORO NEW SPAIN OCTOBER RECORDRecords were obliterated with up to 6C margin with tropical nights even >1300m!First […]

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Tropics/Blocking/Warm SST’s Fuel A Very Wet October…

Written by on October 27, 2023 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Tropics/Blocking/Warm SST’s Fuel A Very Wet October…

In light of a transition from La Nina to El Nino and coverage of warmer-than-average ocean and atmosphere, a flip from abnormal dry to wet was anticipated for the UK and Ireland. This proved to be the case during summer 2023 with a dramatic flip from record warm, dry June to one of the wettest […]

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