Rest of Europe

Even in late 2018, how can long range models be so wrong even 10 days out?

Written by on November 19, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United States of America with 0 Comments
Even in late 2018, how can long range models be so wrong even 10 days out?

You’d think that by now, modelling would be at least close to be correct. I’m not talking ‘months’ in advance but more 10 days… The CFSv2 showed a very warm November for the US with warmer and warmer runs the closer it got to November. In reality we’re witnessing one of the coldest Novembers. As […]

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Being Careful not to predict cold too quick

Written by on November 19, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Being Careful not to predict cold too quick

I know I keep going on about this but I feel strong about this. There has been a great deal of hype and buying into individual ‘cold model runs’ lately. Do that was caution at this early stage, especially when the models see big cold blocking patterns but with little PV disruption. While there has […]

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AO/NAO could be heading to deepest November level since 2010, Arriving 5 weeks earlier than thought

Written by on November 17, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
AO/NAO could be heading to deepest November level since 2010, Arriving 5 weeks earlier than thought

There’s no getting away from this. I didn’t see it coming this early. We’re potentially looking at the deepest negative AO/NAO for November since 2010 and this is rather ominous for so early. Low solar could be triggering this early blocking and could be an indicator of the level of winter ahead. A 2009-10 repeat […]

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UK: Cold or no cold?

Written by on November 14, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
UK: Cold or no cold?

I have to admit that I’m struggling with the pattern and shifts over the next week or so. I’m very conflicted but here’s what I wrote in a post earlier today…. In the short 6-10 day range, cold spells are possible for the British Isles but when looking at the bigger picture and longer 2 […]

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Weakening Atlantic westerlies shall allow Europe high to retrograde west… Less rain, staying mild for UK

Written by on November 12, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Weakening Atlantic westerlies shall allow Europe high to retrograde west… Less rain, staying mild for UK

The last 10 days or so has seen a battle between Atlantic low pressure and continental high pressure. For the UK, particularly northern and western areas, they’ve succumbed to soggy low pressure but east and southeast parts have gradually been drying out as the strong continental high begins to back westwards. The next 7 days […]

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EUROPE: From record cold October days to record warm November days!

Written by on November 7, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
EUROPE: From record cold October days to record warm November days!

A mild October ended with an exceptional cold spell for Europe, particularly for France and Spain thanks to a large and deep low drifting north out of the Med. There now appears to be some evidence that a deep depression will move on a rare track from S to N to CTRL Europe on Tue. […]

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No real sign of a cold pattern developing for the UK over the next 2-4 weeks!

Written by on November 5, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
No real sign of a cold pattern developing for the UK over the next 2-4 weeks!

There’s been a lot of hype of late about a cold second half to November for the UK. As stated in my recent winter forecast, this unlikely. More or less all parameters point to a firm WEST, SOUTHWEST Atlantic pattern for Northwest Europe and this could remain the case up until Christmas. Why? 1) While […]

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Europe Winter Forecast 2018-19

Written by on November 1, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe Winter Forecast 2018-19

The 2018-19 winter forecast is based on and factoring in all atmospheric/oceanic drivers currently in play. This year’s forecast will take into consideration the current ENSO index (El Nino Southern Oscillation), the global as well as Atlantic SSTA (sea surface temperature anomaly) profile, arctic sea ice extent and current status of the solar cycle. There […]

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Poland shivers coldest September night then England and Wales shiver coldest October night since 1997

Written by on October 30, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Poland shivers coldest September night then England and Wales shiver coldest October night since 1997

In what’s been a warm September and October across much of Europe. However, despite Poland experiencing it’s warmest September on record, a clear, cold end to the month drove temperatures to -7.9C in the Czarny Dunajec district. September temperature anomaly Czarny Dunajec miał dzisiaj -5.8 na 2 m i – 9.2 przy gruncie. Normalnie szok bo […]

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Europe November 2018 Outlook

Written by on October 23, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe November 2018 Outlook

This October will be remembered for it’s stormy spells and ups and downs in temperature with record heat (low 20s in northern Scotland, Scandinavia) and in the final week, possibly record cold! October is of course a transition month and it is often turbulent. It’s been a warm month throughout the continent. So, how cold do […]

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