Rest of Europe

Dreaming of a White Christmas 2018? Dream on….

Written by on December 22, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Dreaming of a White Christmas 2018? Dream on….

Are you dreaming of a white Christmas? Thanks to a positive AO/NAO, it’s been a mild and wet December so far and it looks to remain that way for the last weekend before Christmas. As we head into Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, high pressure builds over the UK settling things down. So, sunshine should […]

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If models prove correct with late month SSWE, a 1979 or 2010 style January-February is on the table!

If models prove correct with late month SSWE, a 1979 or 2010 style January-February is on the table!

The latest GFS ensemble continues to show an end of the month SSWE which could make for a very interesting January ahead. There’s still plenty of room of disappointment but our chances for cold is increasing. Note the temperature difference at 10mb over the Arctic between now and January 1st. Rapid warming throughout the depth […]

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UK/Ireland: Pattern changing Storm Deirdre brings flooding rain, freezing rain, snow and severe gales

Written by on December 15, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
UK/Ireland: Pattern changing Storm Deirdre brings flooding rain, freezing rain, snow and severe gales

The Atlantic is making it’s comeback after a near week dominated by cool, easterly winds. Storm Deirdre is making the change from cold continent back to milder, stormier Atlantic as the jet stream strengthens. The tight thermal gradient marked by the storm is helping it deepen on final approach to the UK and so the […]

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Could Indian Ocean Thunderstorms Trigger a Late December Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event?

Written by on December 12, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Could Indian Ocean Thunderstorms Trigger a Late December Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event?

I’ve held off for about a week or so on talking about the stratospheric polar vortex because we all know how modelling suggests one thing only to let us down with the opposite. We know the stratospheric polar vortex has been under a degree of stress and as a result it’s been stretching and flexing. […]

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Many a cold winter including 2009-10 saw a VERY wet November into December like we’re seeing now!

Written by on December 7, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Many a cold winter including 2009-10 saw a VERY wet November into December like we’re seeing now!

The wet pattern continues for much of the UK with the Atlantic still firmly in charge as forecasted. This soggy pattern looks likely to remain from now up until Christmas, what happens after that remains to be seen. As you’re probably aware by now, I have called for colder late December onwards and the models […]

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-2C Aviemore, +14C in Somerset, Stormy weather returns Friday to Scotland

Written by on December 5, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
-2C Aviemore, +14C in Somerset, Stormy weather returns Friday to Scotland

The UK has been separated by two quite different air masses over the past 24 hours. Wednesday began with -7C in Aviemore but +13C in Cornwall, Devon, Dorset and really through the day it didn’t change much with the south peaking at around 13-14C whereas northern Scotland struggled to get above freezing all day. In […]

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Warming waters around Greenland… Could our chances of a mid/late winter cold pattern be increasing?

Written by on December 2, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Warming waters around Greenland… Could our chances of a mid/late winter cold pattern be increasing?

A record strong and prolonged +NAO between May and August helped drive one of Europe’s hottest summer’s in the last 100 years while Greenland shivered it’s coldest since 1997. The cooling of the North Atlantic has almost certainly helped cool Greenland’s summers down and helped enhance this past summer’s deep Greenland trough and Europe ridge. […]

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Frigid plunge into eastern North America shall continue fueling stormy pattern for UK next week

Written by on November 30, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Frigid plunge into eastern North America shall continue fueling stormy pattern for UK next week

As we commence December and meteorological winter 18-19 tomorrow, the next surge of arctic air looks set to drill down the eastern side of North America early next week. This in turn will strengthen our predominantly zonal Atlantic jet thanks to the NAO going back neutral which means don’t expect an end to this wet, […]

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Same low hits twice this week & Atlantic pattern likely continues through at least 1st 10 days of December

Written by on November 28, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Same low hits twice this week & Atlantic pattern likely continues through at least 1st 10 days of December

Wind and rain is in firm control of our weather to end November and commence December. Lot’s of ‘cold talk’ of late and wishcasting but with the NAO going positive and polar vortex core leaning towards Greenland/Scandinavia, there’s no sign of anything other than an Atlantic pattern for NW Europe through the next 10 days […]

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Turning wetter, windier, warmer but stormy period?

Written by on November 25, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Turning wetter, windier, warmer but stormy period?

I’m just heading off to the hills but wanted to share a few thoughts on the return to wetter, windier and somewhat warmer. With the increase in thermal gradient over North America, our trans Atlantic jet is strengthening and as a result we’ll see the return to a more active pattern this week ahead. As […]

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