Archive for 2023
December follows October and November as being a very wet month. It started cold and dry then turned very mild but also very wet. Christmas to New Year has seen it turn somewhat colder and snowier, especially in the north. The month overall coincides quite well with my December Outlook (scoring 8 out of 10) […]
The heavy rains which affected the Northern UK during October shifted south to southern areas and particularly France during November. The final 10 days turned increasingly cold. November started extremely wet, on the heels of October… Eastern Scotland had its wettest October on record in a series which goes back to 1836. It was also: […]
Welcome to my 14th Europe winter forecast. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the 90-day meteorological winter period will be based on the climate drivers currently at play. I’ll look at the current AMO & PDO state, El Nino, IOD, MJO, QBO, Solar. What could each driver mean individually and collectively? Another important factor […]
Key Factors Current Global state (ocean & land temperature anomaly) On a global scale, our oceans are about as warm as any time since at least the beginning of the satellite era. Note the level of widespread warmth particularly from equator to arctic. CDAS temperature anomaly for land and ocean YEAR-TO-DATE! Despite the warmth, we […]
As October draws to a wet, blustery end, here’s a look back at what we witnessed during October 2023. WHAT WAS SAID: Europe October 2023 Outlook What happened… Remarkably warm start to October following record warm September! Update 38.2 MONTORO NEW SPAIN OCTOBER RECORDRecords were obliterated with up to 6C margin with tropical nights even >1300m!First […]
In light of a transition from La Nina to El Nino and coverage of warmer-than-average ocean and atmosphere, a flip from abnormal dry to wet was anticipated for the UK and Ireland. This proved to be the case during summer 2023 with a dramatic flip from record warm, dry June to one of the wettest […]
Key Factors Current Global state (ocean & land temperature anomaly) The planet is without doubt a warmer place now than a decade ago and currently in a steep warming trend unlike anything seen in the modern era. For the last time the earth dipped below average you have to go all the way back to […]
Following a very interesting summer, September will go down as a quite remarkable month. We’ve seen it all with a full blown heatwave delivering the ‘warmest weather of the year’ to very unsettled conditions during the 2nd half with a named storm too. The month has also seen a dramatic tale of two halves. From […]
Key Factors Current Global state (ocean & land temperature anomaly) Current overall global sea surface temp anomaly Past summer upper air pattern (lot’s of blocking) Enso (el nino-southern oscillation index) Type of El Nino QBO (easterly) IOD (positive) Atlantic hurricane activity THINGS WE KNOW CURRENTLY….. WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS RECORD WARM GLOBAL LAND AND OCEAN […]
As meteorological summer draws to a close, so it ends on a cool, showery note. However change appears to be on the horizon as a new season dawns. That change comes courtesy of a strong northward progressing hurricane as well as the wakening up of the MJO. It’s been quite a remarkable summer both in […]
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