As October draws to a wet, blustery end, here’s a look back at what we witnessed during October 2023.

WHAT WAS SAID: Europe October 2023 Outlook

What happened…

Remarkably warm start to October following record warm September!

https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1708564999877050850

https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1708787190849822930

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1708882676793631153

https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1708892870890180734

The weekend of 6-7th October saw 25C in SE England while parts of Highland Scotland only managed highs of 6-7C.

Scotland in fact observed it’s wettest 48-hour period on record with parts of the central Highlands receiving between 150-200mm of rain.

Then came Storm Babet, another remarkable rain event. This time for eastern Scotland with worst hit areas being Perthshire, Tayside, Angus, southern Aberdeenshire as well as parts of Ross-shire, Sutherland and Caithness.

https://twitter.com/MarkVogan/status/1716129629893759012

Tropics/Blocking/Warm SST’s Fuel A Very Wet October…

https://twitter.com/RoostWeather/status/1719073299764760993

A Very Soggy Month Ends, Soggy!

October ends on a particularly soggy note for eastern counties of Northern Ireland. The city of Newry saw it’s canal banks overflow causing significant street flooding.

A Met Office AMBER warning was present overnight 30-31st Oct as heavy, persistent rain pushed in off the Irish Sea. Newry was just the latest victim of flooding caused by excessive October rainfall.

Killowen, Co Down recorded it’s wettest 24-hour period on record with around 75mm falling. Another site recorded 100mm.

My Weather Station Stats for October 2023

MAX TEMP: 17.8C MIN TEMP: -1.1C WETTEST DAY: 60.40 mm PEAK GUST: 49.7 kph WET DAYS: 22 DRY DAYS: 9

MAX PRESS: 1028 mb MIN PRESS: 984 mb TOTAL RAIN: 257.05 mm AVG Temp: 8.7C

November opens STORMY!

Thanks to some Siberia to Canada cross-polar flow, we’re seeing an early season arctic outbreak sweep down the spine of North America, the large thermal gradient over the continent has led to a powerful 190-200+mph jet stream exiting eastern Canada and sweeping across the Atlantic. Multiple lows are forming along this jet and with the aid of blocking high pressure near Iceland and over eastern Europe, these lows are forced to rapidly deepen on approach to Western Europe.

After Storms Agnes and Babet, November starts off with likely the strongest storm to date as we commence the final month of meteorological autumn.

Storm Ciaran promises to deliver incredibly strong winds on it’s southern flank, additional heavy, flooding rainfall to places which simply don’t need it following (for some) the wettest October on record and may even break low pressure records for November.

https://twitter.com/RoostWeather/status/1718526832377815107

Exact track and intensity of Ciaran still remains to be seen as it’s yet to undergo it’s ‘explosive cyclogenesis’ phase at the time of writing.

Below is the Arpege solution with a 950mb centre moving onshore somewhere between Portland and Portsmouth early Thursday and heading towards The Wash before entering the North Sea overnight Thursday into Friday. Heavy, squally rains spiral around the centre.

While very windy throughout the southern UK, the exposed NW corner of France appears to be within the core of most intense winds and could reach 116 mph according to the Arpege model. 90 mph is possible through the Channel Islands and most exposed parts of England’s south coast (Portland Bill, Needles Point etc).

The ICON model suggests gusts of 126 mph in that NW corner of France.

For S England and SW Wales, winds initially blow out of the SSW then NW as the centre of Ciaran tracks NE.

Further heavy, flooding rain to come through the next 72 hours.

What happens beyond Ciaran? Yet another wind and rain maker sweeps in off the Atlantic. At present, the secondary system looks less strong or compact but further wind and rain shall be unwelcome.

Beyond this upcoming weekend??

While there’s quite the spread both positive and negative, the GFS ensemble mean has both AO and NAO largely neutral.

Based on a mainly neutral AO/NAO, the Atlantic likely continues to dominate the first 10-14 days of November with perhaps some breaks in between lows later next week.

The CFSv2 shows just how strong the trough is week 1. Temps average to slightly below average.

Week 2 continues with the trough, albeit a little less deep in the means. Temps near average.

Beyond week 2 is a tough call but there are some models suggesting building heights over Scandinavia or between Scandinavia, Iceland and Greenland towards the pole as seen below suggesting the return of a more -NAO. Repeating pattern we’ve seen between July and October??

This could weaken the Atlantic dominance over Ireland and UK by forcing a weakening or southward shift in the Atlantic storm track. Perhaps something colder if blocking develops west of Ireland?

The below CFSv2 monthly points to a firmly low pressure dominated November and could prove very wet indeed if true. If we happen to see both the continuation of an active storm track across Atlantic and into Ireland and UK coupled with further Scandi blocking, we could see further heavy rain events as lows slow as they come in from the SW becoming stuck.

Potentially Average temperatures and near average to above average rainfall for both Ireland & UK…

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