The heavy rains which affected the Northern UK during October shifted south to southern areas and particularly France during November. The final 10 days turned increasingly cold.

November started extremely wet, on the heels of October…

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1719738128611909990

November proved record wet across France and very wet elsewhere across southern Europe extending up into the southern UK. Once again, a Greenland and Arctic blocking helped force a very active storm track to the south and with plenty of heat still within the subtropics, this imbalance produced a barrage of potent Atlantic depressions.

This 500mb geopotential height anomaly chart says it all!

The month commenced with a series of storms which took direct aim at N France. Storm Ciaran kicked things off with record low pressure for UK and wind gusts for France!

https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/1720527764862709805

https://twitter.com/Meteovilles/status/1719935061179367733

Comparisons to 1987 were made.

https://twitter.com/Meteovilles/status/1720401024102318150

https://twitter.com/ExtremeMeteo/status/1720077600431943808

With an average of 237mm nation-wide through the first 10 days of the month, France witnessed it’s wettest such 30-day period in history!

https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1725582795144036538

Then came the cold for November’s Finale!

https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1726956947390517353

https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1728733857955074441

https://twitter.com/Top_Disaster/status/1728774028968841305

https://twitter.com/Top_Disaster/status/1729084776483840357

https://twitter.com/JuliusSubovic/status/1729081389457592421

https://twitter.com/Brit_in_Moldova/status/1728805216655483284

https://twitter.com/kairokiitsak/status/1729158525895798857

https://twitter.com/MarkVogan/status/1729166010341875787

https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1729207293504540819

https://twitter.com/MarkVogan/status/1729763490712203419

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1729894269157265537

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1729373535796351148

https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1729832638876090376

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1730602805830774968

November temperature anomaly

With very wet start and cold end, the November Outlook didn’t do too bad with UK winding up close to average for both temperature and rainfall.

https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1732701487028228196

November 2023 Monthly Weather Report

Stats from the Met Office

Highest Maximum 16.7°C on 13th at Writtle (Essex, 32mAMSL)
Lowest Maximum -0.3°C on 30th at Okehampton, East Okement Farm (Devon, 408mAMSL)
Highest Minimum 13.1°C on 14th at Swanage (Dorset, 10mAMSL)
Lowest Minimum -7.7°C on 25th at Shap (Cumbria, 263mAMSL)
Lowest Grass
Minimum -11.8°C on 30th at Whitechurch (Dyfed, 129mAMSL)
Most Rainfall 124.2mm on 13th at Honister Pass (Cumbria, 358mAMSL)
Most Sunshine 8.1hr on 11th at Wittering (Cambridgeshire, 74mAMSL)
Highest Gust 68Kt 78mph on 2nd at Langdon Bay (Kent, 117mAMSL)
Highest Gust
(mountain*)
97Kt 112mph on 22nd at Cairngorm Summit (Inverness-shire, 1237mAMSL)
also on 23rd at Cairngorm Summit (Inverness-shire, 1237mAMSL)
Greatest Snow
Depth at 0900
UTC
10cm on 30th at Copley (Durham, 253mAMSL)

My Weather Station Stats for November 2023

MAX TEMP: 13.1C MIN TEMP: -3.4C WETTEST DAY: 19.81 mm PEAK GUST: 68.0 kph WET DAYS: 18 DRY DAYS: 12 MAX PRESS: 1029 mb MIN PRESS: 972 mb TOTAL RAIN: 100.43 mm AVG Temp: 4.9C

Cold Start to December!

Front 7 days of December!

The likely trigger to this end of November, start of December cold pattern for not only Europe but North America and East Asia is perhaps to some degree courtesy of a minor strat warming late October and the MJO finally wakening up from an autumn slumber.

These factors have likely led to ‘short term’ upward heat flux activity which leads to a wavier jet and consequential blocking.

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1726707328567890311

MJO about to change things again?

Warmer, stormier phases?

 

Could see some high impact lows for a time between Dec 6-15th as Atlantic jet roars at 200-230mph…

Note week 2 and 3 off the CFSv2 lifts the trough north and west…

This supports the return of warmer, moister Atlantic air.

I suspect a northward shift in storm track and so wetter and warmer weather returns to the UK and Ireland.

The multimodel (all models combined) for December indicates a predominantly Atlantic pattern (westerly) = mild and wet.

While I believe the above CFSv2 based on MJO’s eastward propagation, the question is where’s it’s final destination? It actually looks to be headed for phase 7! If you look at the above chart, this supports northerly blocking. I recon we start cold, turn warmer and wetter Dec 7th through 16/20th BUT could we turn colder in the week running up to Christmas?

I am going to put my neck out and suggest a transition to colder Dec 20th onwards (southward shift in storm track as blocking builds north) with chance of snowy weather ‘for parts’ of the UK and even Ireland Christmas Eve through Boxing Day!

CHANCE OF SNOW BETWEEN CHRISTMAS EVE & BOXING DAY 2023

N Scotland 70%

C/S Scotland 65%

N England/N Wales 60%

S England/S Wales 55%

Ireland/N Ire 58%

By snow chances I mean a mix of falling snow and lying snow and this is throughout the 72 hour Christmas period.

Overall, A near Average December for Both Temperature & Rainfall is expected for the UK and Ireland… Cold Scandinavia, Milder MUCH of Europe…

It’s going to be very interesting to watch the strat warming situation throughout December as this could provide consequence on our weather into January.

Wave 1

Wave 2

This warming expands the stratosphere and contracts the troposphere which forces heights rise beneath (high latitude blocking) The consequences IF there is any, would likely be New Year/early January!

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Le Moigne Adrien @Adilemoigne

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