Key Factors

• Current Global state (ocean & land temperature anomaly)

• Current overall global sea surface temp anomaly

• Past summer upper air pattern (lot’s of blocking)

• Enso (el nino-southern oscillation index)

• Type of El Nino

• QBO (easterly)

• IOD (positive)

• Atlantic hurricane activity

THINGS WE KNOW CURRENTLY…..

• WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS RECORD WARM GLOBAL LAND AND OCEAN TEMPERATURES
• THE WORLD IS A WARMER PLACE THAN 10-15-20 YEARS AGO
• EL NINO WILL BE PRESENT THIS WINTER
• THE QBO WILL BE EASTERLY THIS WINTER
• IOD IS POSITIVE NOW BUT EXPECTED TO GO NEUTRAL DURING WINTER

EL NINO WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE 2023-24 WINTER

SOLAR CYCLE 25, HAS IT ALREADY REACHED IT’S PEAK OR IS IT THE FIRST OF A DOUBLE? STRONG THAN 24 BUT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS 7. HOW MUCH DOES OF A ROLE DOES THIS HAVE?

Current sunspot days vs past

QBO

Greater chance for blocking

Strength of the now developing polar vortex? fast start? leveling to average late Sep and through Oct?

Now

End of Sep

El Nino as per CFSv2

Nino regions

Current

CFSv2

MJO?

CFSv2 Nov

Dec

Jan

IOD

Oct

Dec

Feb

Annual change