The warm, wet theme continued for the UK and Ireland through March 2024 despite the most significant of three SSW’s and favourable MJO cold phases of 7-8-1.
And even the most negative NAO since January when we saw our 2nd and final cold (for some), snowy spell of winter 2023-24.
March anomaly.
Credit: Weatherbell
MET OFFICE: Spring starts with a mild and wet March
Credit: Met Office
Credit: Met Office
Met Office March 2024 Extremes
Highest Maximum 18.8°C on 20th at Charlwood (Surrey, 67mAMSL)
Lowest Maximum 1.2°C on 2nd at Pennerley (Shropshire, 357mAMSL)
Highest Minimum 11.6°C on 14th at Prestatyn (Clwyd, 4mAMSL)
Lowest Minimum -6.9°C on 26th at Altnaharra No 2 (Sutherland, 81mAMSL)
Lowest Grass
Minimum -11.1°C on 4th at Copley (Durham, 253mAMSL)
Most Rainfall 94.4mm on 13th at Capel Curig No 3 (Gwynedd, 216mAMSL)
Most Sunshine 11.5hr on 30th at Kirkwall (Orkney, 26mAMSL)
also on 31st at Bewcastle (Cumbria, 133mAMSL)
Highest Gust 70Kt 81mph on 1st at Wight: Needles Old Battery (Isle Of Wight, 80mAMSL)
also on 28th at Wight: Needles Old Battery (Isle Of Wight, 80mAMSL)
Highest Gust
(mountain*) 95Kt 109mph on 21st at Cairngorm Summit (Inverness-shire, 1237mAMSL)
Greatest Snow
Depth at 0900
UTC
12cm on 1st at Lough Navar Forest (Fermanagh, 126mAMSL)
Rest of Europe March highlights
https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1771225021370814775
https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1771645534446473641
https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1772636368558002624
https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1773751314993861003
https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1773965076988665967
https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1774124395180466308
https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1774143163462033737
https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1774631637080260764
🥵 Historic day in the Baltics and Belarus with national March records destroyed by 3-4°C! Crazy.
🌡️27.1°C Lelchitsy, #Belarus 🇧🇾 [previous record 23.1°C]
🌡️25.5°C Druskininkai, #Lithuania 🇱🇹 [21.8°C]
🌡️22.8°C Skulte, #Latvia 🇱🇻 [20.8°C]
🌡️21.3°C Valga, #Estonia 🇪🇪 [18.9°C] pic.twitter.com/kYYuNOFQaZ
— Thierry Goose (@ThierryGooseBC) March 31, 2024
‼️March national records broken on March 30 & 31.#Moldavia 🇲🇩🌡️29.7°C Sîngerei#Albania 🇦🇱🌡️29.6°C Kuçovë#Croatia 🇭🇷🌡️29.0°C Osijek#Belarus 🇧🇾🌡️27.2°C Lelchitsy#Poland 🇵🇱🌡️26.4°C Tarlów#Lithuania 🇱🇹🌡️25.5°C Druskininkai#Latvia 🇱🇻🌡️22.8°C Skulte#Estonia 🇪🇪🌡️21.3°C Valga pic.twitter.com/ayhfg3dhQC
— Thierry Goose (@ThierryGooseBC) April 1, 2024
The overriding influence of El Nino, lack of cold on our side of the hemisphere, south shifted jet, warm SST’s and other factors are likely to blame for this warm, wet March.
My Weather Station Stats for March 2024
MAX TEMP: 15.4C MIN TEMP: -3.8C WETTEST DAY: 36.80 mm PEAK GUST: 68.0 kph WET DAYS: 19 DRY DAYS: 12 MAX PRESS: 1024 mb MIN PRESS: 974 mb TOTAL RAIN: 69.82 mm AVG Temp: 5.6C
Soggy start, Drier end To April?
With a strengthening west based Greenland block and still pretty lively south-shifted Atlantic jet, the mild, wet theme is likely to continue full bore as we enter meteorological springs 2nd month.
GFS ext upcoming 7-day 500mb geo anomaly (strong Greenland block/deep trough just SW of UK)
Credit: Weatherbell
30-day (Note Greenland block and south shifted jet aimed straight at UK/ire from warmer, moister SW source)
Credit: Weatherbell
CFSv2 weeklies shows nothing stopping the hosepipe through the first half of the month. With the core of negative west of UK and ridge to east, this is a warm, wet flow!
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Precip anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
However, with MJO creeping it’s way back towards 4-5, we MAY see something drier towards mid-month and perhaps holding into the 2nd half of April. There is some potential for real warmth as the high expands over Europe or up from Africa towards UK.
Question will be, if we get higher pressure and drier conditions, will it last?
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Precip anomaly
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
The above weeklies off the CFSv2 suggests more average to possibly below average rainfall week 3 and 4.
CFSv2 for April overall
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Overall, I expect the UK and Ireland to see the continuation of both warmer and wetter than average conditions through April. Warmer than average across much of Europe.
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