The warm, wet theme continued for the UK and Ireland through March 2024 despite the most significant of three SSW’s and favourable MJO cold phases of 7-8-1.

And even the most negative NAO since January when we saw our 2nd and final cold (for some), snowy spell of winter 2023-24.

March anomaly.

MET OFFICE: Spring starts with a mild and wet March 

Met Office March 2024 Extremes

Highest Maximum 18.8°C on 20th at Charlwood (Surrey, 67mAMSL)
Lowest Maximum 1.2°C on 2nd at Pennerley (Shropshire, 357mAMSL)
Highest Minimum 11.6°C on 14th at Prestatyn (Clwyd, 4mAMSL)
Lowest Minimum -6.9°C on 26th at Altnaharra No 2 (Sutherland, 81mAMSL)
Lowest Grass
Minimum -11.1°C on 4th at Copley (Durham, 253mAMSL)
Most Rainfall 94.4mm on 13th at Capel Curig No 3 (Gwynedd, 216mAMSL)
Most Sunshine 11.5hr on 30th at Kirkwall (Orkney, 26mAMSL)
also on 31st at Bewcastle (Cumbria, 133mAMSL)
Highest Gust 70Kt 81mph on 1st at Wight: Needles Old Battery (Isle Of Wight, 80mAMSL)
also on 28th at Wight: Needles Old Battery (Isle Of Wight, 80mAMSL)
Highest Gust
(mountain*) 95Kt 109mph on 21st at Cairngorm Summit (Inverness-shire, 1237mAMSL)
Greatest Snow
Depth at 0900
UTC
12cm on 1st at Lough Navar Forest (Fermanagh, 126mAMSL)

Rest of Europe March highlights

???? Very warm day in SW Europe with up to 33.2°C in Evega, Galicia (#Spain ????????) from @MeteoGalicia. Many stations above 31°C, much warmer than a July day.

In #France ????????, up to 27.4°C with many stations above 25-26°C such as Mont-de-Marsan, Carcassonne, Bordeaux, Toulouse, etc. pic.twitter.com/wF6wfNr2Km

— Thierry Goose (@ThierryGooseBC) March 22, 2024

In addition to the record heat in #Spain ???????? yesterday, #Portugal ???????? also had very high Tmax, up to 31.5°C in Ponte de Lima, only 0.1°C below the March national record set in 2005.
Today, Tmin of 20.9°C in Porto/Massarelos, highest Tmin ever recorded in March in Portugal. https://t.co/v1GtwmR318 pic.twitter.com/Erq1RyzZQ5

— Thierry Goose (@ThierryGooseBC) March 23, 2024

????️-34.7°C in Čoavddatmohkki, #Norway ???????? last night! ????
It's very cold for late March, not that far from the April national record level. pic.twitter.com/HjHYOAkBWw

— Thierry Goose (@ThierryGooseBC) March 26, 2024

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1773751314993861003

❗New March national record for the highest Tmin in #Austria ???????? today with 16.5°C in Vienna-Neustadt!

16.4°C Bludenz
16.3°C Buchbergwarte
15.6°C Puchberg
15.5°C Lutzmannburg
14.8°C Wolfsegg

Monthly records broken by a huge margin. Thanks @wetterblogAT for the table and info. pic.twitter.com/pYf2Jr0rFQ

— Thierry Goose (@ThierryGooseBC) March 30, 2024

❗️Avalanche of March records in eastern Europe today!

????️26.4°C in Tarnów, #Poland ????????, new March national record!

????️22.4°C in Druskininkai, #Lithuania ????????, new March national record!

Over 30°C in #Serbia ????????, 25.0°C in #Austria ????????, 24.9°C in #Germany ????????, etc. More tweets to come. pic.twitter.com/q7MgZbJVRo

— Thierry Goose (@ThierryGooseBC) March 30, 2024

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1774143163462033737

❗️More *national March records* broken in Europe on March 31.

????️29.7°C Sîngerei AWS [hourly max], #Moldavia ????????

????️29.6°C Kuçovë [29.5°C Elbasan], #Albania ????????

????️29.0°C Osijek/Klisa, #Croatia ????????

Update for #Belarus ????????: ????️27.2°C Lelchitsy

29.0°C Zhytomyr, #Ukraine is incorrect. pic.twitter.com/y356TrKuOR

— Thierry Goose (@ThierryGooseBC) April 1, 2024

???? Historic day in the Baltics and Belarus with national March records destroyed by 3-4°C! Crazy.

????️27.1°C Lelchitsy, #Belarus ???????? [previous record 23.1°C]

????️25.5°C Druskininkai, #Lithuania ???????? [21.8°C]

????️22.8°C Skulte, #Latvia ???????? [20.8°C]

????️21.3°C Valga, #Estonia ???????? [18.9°C] pic.twitter.com/kYYuNOFQaZ

— Thierry Goose (@ThierryGooseBC) March 31, 2024

‼️March national records broken on March 30 & 31.#Moldavia ????????????️29.7°C Sîngerei#Albania ????????????️29.6°C Kuçovë#Croatia ????????????️29.0°C Osijek#Belarus ????????????️27.2°C Lelchitsy#Poland ????????????️26.4°C Tarlów#Lithuania ????????????️25.5°C Druskininkai#Latvia ????????????️22.8°C Skulte#Estonia ????????????️21.3°C Valga pic.twitter.com/ayhfg3dhQC

— Thierry Goose (@ThierryGooseBC) April 1, 2024

The overriding influence of El Nino, lack of cold on our side of the hemisphere, south shifted jet, warm SST’s and other factors are likely to blame for this warm, wet March.

My Weather Station Stats for March 2024

MAX TEMP: 15.4C MIN TEMP: -3.8C WETTEST DAY: 36.80 mm PEAK GUST: 68.0 kph WET DAYS: 19 DRY DAYS: 12 MAX PRESS: 1024 mb MIN PRESS: 974 mb TOTAL RAIN: 69.82 mm AVG Temp: 5.6C

Soggy start, Drier end To April?

With a strengthening west based Greenland block and still pretty lively south-shifted Atlantic jet, the mild, wet theme is likely to continue full bore as we enter meteorological springs 2nd month.

GFS ext upcoming 7-day 500mb geo anomaly (strong Greenland block/deep trough just SW of UK)

30-day (Note Greenland block and south shifted jet aimed straight at UK/ire from warmer, moister SW source)

CFSv2 weeklies shows nothing stopping the hosepipe through the first half of the month. With the core of negative west of UK and ridge to east, this is a warm, wet flow!

Precip anomaly

However, with MJO creeping it’s way back towards 4-5, we MAY see something drier towards mid-month and perhaps holding into the 2nd half of April. There is some potential for real warmth as the high expands over Europe or up from Africa towards UK.

Question will be, if we get higher pressure and drier conditions, will it last?

Precip anomaly

The above weeklies off the CFSv2 suggests more average to possibly below average rainfall week 3 and 4.

CFSv2 for April overall

Overall, I expect the UK and Ireland to see the continuation of both warmer and wetter than average conditions through April. Warmer than average across much of Europe.

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