Archive for 2022

2022/23: Christmas-New Year-Early January Forecast!

Written by on December 21, 2022 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
2022/23: Christmas-New Year-Early January Forecast!

THIS ARTICLE MAY BE SUBJECT TO SOME MINOR CHANGES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO… The (locked) cold pattern has broken… The return of the Atlantic is down to the MJO returning to phases 2, 3, 4 combined with the WPO, EPO going back positive. The southward discharge of arctic air out of Alaska, N […]

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European Winter Forecast 2022-23

Written by on December 1, 2022 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
European Winter Forecast 2022-23

Welcome to my 13th annual winter forecast for Europe. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the upcoming 90-day meteorological winter period are based on the current state of solar cycle 25, current ocean and atmospheric drivers and my understanding of their potential influence. Of course, pinpointing any specific pattern several weeks or months ahead […]

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Europe December 2022 Outlook

Written by on November 30, 2022 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe December 2022 Outlook

Following a record warm, dry summer, November and autumn will go down as warm and wet. Europe 2m temp anomaly Sep Oct Nov This follows what has been a record warm year-to-date for UK as well as Europe. Hints back in September of what was coming in December? The pattern triggered by the phase 6, […]

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Europe November 2022 Outlook (Inc video)

Written by on October 31, 2022 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe November 2022 Outlook (Inc video)

Following a very warm, dry summer, autumn flipped wet with the aid of increased tropical activity. Temperature-wise, it marginally held onto the mild theme in September with warm start followed by coldest 2nd half to a September (-NAO) since 2012 according to Gavin Partridge. It was cold in the east. October saw the return to […]

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Europe October 2022 Outlook (Inc video)

Written by on October 1, 2022 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe October 2022 Outlook (Inc video)

September has been a very different month compared to recent months. Following the hottest and possibly driest summer on record for the continent, September has turned out cooler and wetter. The most likely cause of the change is down to the tropics! Sept anomaly Year-to-date Current SST’s Despite the UK overall winding up slightly warmer […]

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Europe September 2022 Outlook (Inc video)

Written by on August 30, 2022 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe September 2022 Outlook (Inc video)

The prolonged (likely La Nina, low solar) induced warm, dry theme continues for UK, Ireland and Europe as well as much of the Northern Hemisphere over the last 12 months. Heavy rains have led to an unusually cool summer for parts of India and Pakistan and we’ve also seen much of Africa and southern hemisphere […]

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Europe August 2022 Outlook (Summer so far)

Written by on July 31, 2022 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe August 2022 Outlook (Summer so far)

We’re well beyond the half way point of meteorological summer 2022 and on the eve of August. So far, it’s been a mixed summer with spells of ‘extreme heat’ mixed with cool, showery episodes and pressure from the Atlantic trying to press east. Driest, warmest, sunniest the further south and east, cooler, wetter the further […]

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UK Record’s Hottest Night, To Be Followed by 1st 40C?

Written by on July 19, 2022 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
UK Record’s Hottest Night, To Be Followed by 1st 40C?

Thanks to a long term La Nina induced dry pattern, abnormally warm Atlantic, North Sea and Med and exceptionally hot air in place over Iberia, the heat is one… Thanks to high pressure sliding east and low pressure lifting north from Iberia towards UK, an area of nearly off-the-scale warmth has tracked northward over the […]

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UK’s Hottest Days Since 1900

Written by on July 8, 2022 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
UK’s Hottest Days Since 1900

Information credit: Trevor Harley Top 4 UK Hottest Days 38.7C Cambridge Botanic Garden July 2019 38.5C Faversham, Kent August 2003 37.1C Cheltenham August 1990 36.7C Raunds August 1911 Site of the new UK record at Cambridge Botanic Gardens UK’s hottest day since 1900 1900 35.1 Cambridge 20 July 1901 33.3 Bawtry (South Yorks.), Colly Weston […]

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Europe July 2022 Outlook

Written by on June 27, 2022 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe July 2022 Outlook

It’s been a strange and erratic month of June across Europe and indeed across much of the hemisphere. Unsurprisingly, the warmer-than-normal theme has continued with pretty much all areas of the continent experiencing an above normal month. While warm overall, it was a cool final week of May and 1st week of June. While the […]

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