Welcome to my 13th annual winter forecast for Europe. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the upcoming 90-day meteorological winter period are based on the current state of solar cycle 25, current ocean and atmospheric drivers and my understanding of their potential influence.

Of course, pinpointing any specific pattern several weeks or months ahead is near impossible but we can provide potential trends and likelihoods.

Current Solar Cycle 25 (Similar to late 2011)

Following the most recent minimum at the close of 2019, cycle 25 continues to ascend towards the maximum of which we could have either a single or double peak as observed during cycle 24.

Here is the current state.

With observed sunspot days, 2022 is comparable to 2011/2012 with NASA predicting the maximum around 2025.

3rd year La Nina

We remain firmly in a La Nina which makes this a 3rd straight year with La Nina present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. That’s only happened twice before since 1950. 1973-1976 and 1999-2001.

Interestingly, ALL 3 triple dip La Ninas (73-76.. 1998-01 & 2019-22) followed a strong El Nino in 1972-73 and TWO super Nino’s, 1997-98 and most recently in 2015-16.

It’s interesting to see the atmospheric temperature response with each strong to super El Nino, the La Nina’s which follow and the drop in temperature.

Notice however that with each of the 3 Super El Nino’s, a new temperature benchmark is set and the decline which follows is less.

The continued rise in global SST’s particularly within the northern basins is likely a significant contributing factor to the lesser cooling following Super Nino’s.

Arctic Sea Ice

Arctic sea ice extent remains well below average and probably in the middle of the recent pack. Less than last year at this time but above the minimums of 2007 and 2012.

Northern Hemisphere snow cover

Snow cover as of the end of November appears much healthier compared to the beginning of the month where it took a significant dip below normal after a fast start.

What this portrays is a healthy building of the cold reservoir over Siberia, N America and Scandinavia.

Negative IOD to neutral during winter 2022-23

Westerly QBO

After a strong east QBO last year (fat load of good it did), we have a westerly QBO for this winter.

This means strong westerly winds blowing over the equator and this can, but not always, help enhance the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex and polar jet stream. East QBO’s tend to help weaken both PV and polar jet but last winter is a perfect example of how this isn’t always the case. In fact a west QBO was present during the 2009-10 winter and we had record high latitude blocking and coldest winter since 1978-79.

Similar SST’s to 2022

2022

2021

2020

2017

2010

Following the Super El Nino of 97-98, the PDO turned strongly negative with warming into the early, mid 2000s. The Atlantic has been warm but strength of warmth fluctuating.

MJO Phase 7, 8, 1 + late season tropical activity = early winter?

A predominantly warm, dry summer across the NH mid-latitudes I believe suppressed global tropical activity in July and August.

I believe with warmest ocean and land ‘compared to normal’ focused across the north, there was no need for nature to produce tropical cyclones and do what nature does.

As we headed into September, the pattern changed with the adjustments of the season. The eastward progress of the MJO through phases 6, 7 and 8 (Africa to Pacific) and flip from large-scale sinking to upward motion over the Atlantic eventually killed the much of the northern heatwaves and thus allowed the tropics to turn on.

The uptick in tropical activity and in particular the NORTHWARD TRANSFER OF HEAT from low to high latitudes produced forced an unusual -AO/NAO September and this led to the UK’s coolest 2nd half to a September since 2012.

Hurricane Fiona which you can see in the below chart took an almost due north track and high latitude blocking followed this.

Following a quieter spell in late October in the tropics and return to a neutral to +AO/NAO, so warmth re-built across the north once again late Oct into Nov and then we saw a repeat of September in mid November with major Nov cold hitting North America 1st followed by central Europe.

As we depart Nov, the MJO is returning to it’s September position and so the AO/NAO is flipping back negative.

Since we’re entering December and hemispheric snow cover expansive, we could be headed for a significant start to winter. Temperature have exceeded -50C over Siberia, -45C over Canada.

The residual effects of LATE SEASON tropical heat transfer into the high latitudes could be leading to one of the most -AO/NAO start’s to winter since 2010.

Joe Bastardi’s theory is, late season tropical activity can lead to quick starts to winter.

The golden question is will it fully reach the UK and Ireland or as it did in the run up to Christmas, stop on the other side of the North Sea?

Europe, North America and Asian hot spots look to significantly cool.

Sudden Stratospheric Warming potential?

There has been fluctuations in strength and position of the stratospheric polar vortex this autumn. Early weakening gave way to unusually strong. As of November 27th, it’s fairly robust and strong at it’s core, albeit slightly displaced towards Greenland and Europe.

While the vortex at 10mb is expected to strengthen, further strengthening of the Siberia high as predicted by the models and a powerful Greenland block could force further pressure on the vortex during December.

GFS ensemble

Day 6-10

Day 11-15

Could lead to this for Europe…

The ECMWF doesn’t see much influence at 10mb.

A major hemispheric pattern flip is underway with the development of strong high latitude blocking.

This pressure and warming from underneath, could eventually lead to weakening of the SPV later on in December.

Note the warming over Siberia.

May lead to nothing, but… we will see if anywhere where to happen late December.

Could Tonga eruption last January play a role?

It’ll be interesting to watch this winter and test a theory regarding last January’s eruption of the tonga underwater volcano which appears to have contributed to a cooling of the stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere. This may have opposite effects on the stratosphere over the NH. There have been linkages to a strong south pole vortex vs weak north pole vortex the following winter in the past.

Recent years with a SSW

Dec 2009 (commenced UK’s coldest winter since 78-79)

Feb 2013 (followed by coldest March in 50 yrs)

2014?

March 2016

Feb 2018 (beast from east followed)

Feb 2021 (produced UK’s lowest temp since 95)

Based on several factors including the tonga volcanic eruption )strengthening the southern stratosphere but weakening the northern vortex theory), seemingly frequent occurrence of SSW’s in recent years, strong early season high lat blocking and consequential ‘bottom up’ vortex weakening, we have an increased chance of a major SSW this winter. We also didn’t observe one last winter.

Warm, wet Autumn 2022

Past warm, wet autumns following a hot, dry summer have been known to see early starts to winter or cold December’s.

Cold December’s have become rare over the past decade.

Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell has always said heavy rains in November can lead to cold December’s for the UK. November 2009, even 2010 was a classic example of this rule having merit. That rule may prove correct this year if modelling holds true.

Strongest December -AO/NAO since 2010?

CFSv2 for December 2022

My 2022-23 Prediction

An early start to winter of course doesn’t necessarily make for a cold winter overall but it would seem there could well be something brewing.

A sample of some years which saw a

• Double La Nina,
• Solar cycle in-between minimum and maximum,
• similar global SSTA’s profile (since 2010)
• hurricane seasons with between 12-16 named storms and late season activity
• Warm, wet autumn

1984-85

1995-96

2010-11

2011-12

2013-14

The MJO as well as other Pacific drivers are the key contributing factors to the fast start to winter. While NOTHING is inevitable, I believe this winter poses a serious threat as food, energy and transport costs reach new highs.

DECEMBER 2022

A cold month looks likely with a maturing cold pattern week 1 into week 2 as blocking establishes over Greenland and air masses grow colder through the mid latitudes.

Winds could veer from easterly week 1 to north, northeast week 2 as the Greenland high becomes more dominant than the Scandi high.

How cold it gets depends upon snow cover as well as light winds and clear sky and of course the depth of cold within the air mass but potential is there for significant cold week 2, possibly week 3 and that would take us towards the Christmas period.

How long the cold pattern holds during December is a tough call but I suspect a moderation possibly towards Christmas for UK and W Europe. The return to phases 1, 2 possibly 3 are cold phases but sometimes a particular pattern can take charge of itself and can be hard to break.

December 2022: Colder than average northern Europe (including UK and Ireland), warmer south

CFSv2 weeklies for December

JANUARY 2023

January is a tough one. The big question will be the MJO and perhaps more so the stratosphere. Do we see the upcoming high latitude blocking weaken the polar vortex at 10mb? If so, does this lead to any sort of strat warming? If that happens we could see a renewed cold pattern developing but it depends on when (if) that warming occurred.

At this time I will suggest a period of milder conditions early to mid January for UK and NW Europe with return to a +AO/NAO. Perhaps a return to colder conditions week 3 and 4.

A threat of an SSW event occurring late December could reinforce a colder flip in January but it’s all about timing.

The GFS ensemble certainly sees strong warming over Siberia but how much pressure does this put on the vortex in Dec?

Based on no SSW event during December, I will aim for a mild first half to January and therefore…

CFSv2 for January

January 2023: Average to above average temperatures over NW Europe including UK, Ireland, colder southeast Europe.

FEBRUARY 2023

Winter’s final meteorological month has potential for big flips from very cold to very mild. After what may be a 1-2 week or prolonged mild period during January, cold could return in a big way and once again the question will be, what’s happening with both MJO and SPV.

A significant, perhaps strongest cold period of the winter may hit early February bringing similar conditions to February 2021 when temperatures hit -23C at Braemar, coldest since December 1995 when Altnaharra hit -27C!

February 2023: UK and Ireland could sit right along the boundary between warmer and colder than average but I will lean towards slightly warmer than average. 

CfsV2 for February

SUMMARY

Overall, I believe this winter presents spells of cold of which could be of significance. The longest period of cold may come prior to Christmas but strongest may wait till later January or February.

I believe in a time where oceans are warmer than they’ve been in decades, it’s harder to see a colder than average winter widely BUT following the hot summer which produced the UK’s first recorded 40C day, a rubber band type flip is possible but my hunch is for a slightly warmer than normal winter for the 90-day period.

With a sudden stratospheric warming event occurring most years in the last decade and possibly none in 2022 then I believe the chance this winter becomes elevated.

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