It’s been a strange and erratic month of June across Europe and indeed across much of the hemisphere.

Unsurprisingly, the warmer-than-normal theme has continued with pretty much all areas of the continent experiencing an above normal month.

While warm overall, it was a cool final week of May and 1st week of June.

While the Atlantic has been influential and mostly successful at deflecting heat east of the UK, (especially Ireland), one major pulse of heat swept through Spain and France, eventually reaching Germany, Czech Rep and Alpine countries. This particular mid-month heat wave produced France’s earliest 40C, hottest June day and one of it’s hottest days of all-time.

During a solid 7-day stretch, somewhere in Iberia recorded 40C with a max of 44.5C at Andajur (only 0.7C off the national June record) and it’s said to have been the country’s earliest ‘intense heat in over 20 years’.

France’s highest was 43.4C recorded at Pissos.

While it could be considered ‘hot’ with a UK peak reading of 32.7C at Santon Downham, Suffolk, the UK largely escaped the heat due to the presence of deep low pressure positioned N of Scotland which produced unseasonably strong winds of over 50 mph near sea level, 85 mph above 4,000ft in the north and west and held temperatures below average even into NW England. This low drove a cold front south, quickly driving continental air back out as fast as it arrived.

The immediate day after the near 33C spike, temperatures over the Midlands were a full 15C lower and even struggling to get above 10-11C mid-afternoon at the same time Paris was in the high-30s! A contrast rarely observed.

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Several lows positioned close to Ireland has resulted in cool days with spells of heavy, persistent rain and unseasonably strong winds. Only brief spells of heat have visited, briefer still for Ireland.

As June draws to a close, low pressure remains dominant with another unusually deep system close to Ireland’s Atlantic coast, this produced a distinct west-east split with Pennines marking the separation point.

The result? Strong, gusty winds for all but heavy, persistent rain and early afternoon temperatures stuck at between 11-13C in the west while in the sunshine down the east side and in the rain shadow, Yorkshire southwards observed 21-23C and sunshine.

https://twitter.com/MarkVogan/status/1541119355961876480

The weekend system is exiting, leaving behind a legacy of cool, blustery showers but it’s followed by yet another Atlantic low.

June will go down as very ‘mixed’ with some saying ‘it was decent’, others ‘poor’, some wet, some dry. In terms of scoring summer’s opening month? I would say it’s turned out pretty good as it was clearly stated that heat would work hard at trying to lift north out of Africa, often being deflected east of the UK due to the presence of low pressure never far from Irish or Scottish shores.

Any appreciable heat (which was likely) would be focused over the Southeast and East of England, likely missing Scotland, Northern Ireland and Ireland. Major heat was possible over Europe and wave 2 is now affecting central, eastern and northern Europe, missing Spain, France and UK. Unusually cool for NW Spain and Portugal.

Last weekend temperature anomaly

This past weekend…

Focus of heat shifts east and north! Wild back and forth swings…

The month of June was expected to be warmer-than-average and possibly a touch wetter. I believe some areas will have witnessed a wetter than normal June while others, drier! I am very pleased with how it turned out.

SKILL SCORE: 8/10.

How about July?

Now we move onto my most uncertain month of the 2022 summer forecast. I stated that this could go either way, yes, leaving no stone unturned. The reason is this… a solar cycle running close to the previous and sunspot activity similar to that of 2011 (cold summer), however, a La Nina year (3rd actually), dry spring, warm Atlantic and a warm previous autumn and winter, well July could be wet or dry with those warm SST’s. Very warm Med and Atlantic also points to warmer than average air temperatures which would follow the trend BUT, solar, MJO and even tropics can prove you dead wrong. Those ENSO flips can also throw a real spanner in the works of a long range forecast, 2012 is a stand out example.

I must say, I recon the multi-year La Nina has significantly reduced UK rainfall since 2018 but one cannot assume July will wind up dry. In fact it could become wet if we get the wild thermal swings and tight gradients which can produce explosive thunderstorms etc. I just don’t see 2007 or 2012.

Check out the ‘cooling’ over the open N Atlantic during June. Note the boiling Med.

I believe La Nina maintains it’s overall ‘reduced rainfall’ theme over the UK. Like June, the Atlantic will never be far away in July.

I believe July will have similarity to June with a fight between Atlantic and continental. Major heat will bring a torrid time to Italy and the Med Basin and these pulses of heat will lift through Europe and ‘at times’ could make it into at least parts of the UK, mainly S, SE.

Iberia will see further heat episodes which could challenge their all-time record set back in 2017.

Could France challenge their’s of 2019?

It’s possible but would take a lot… How about the UK? Ireland? With extreme heat pushing records in Spain and or France, there’s always potential for some of this heat core pushing into at least the southern UK, possibly Ireland if the high slides east and low pressure is near.

Meantime, we have an autumnal end to the month of June with another deep low spinning to the west and spreading wind, rain and Atlantic freshness across the UK… July will certainly not open like 2015 did!!

https://twitter.com/MarkVogan/status/1541692919253450752

Week by week breakdown

WEEK 1

Low pressure retreats north allowing higher pressure and drier, warmer weather to lift up into at least England and Wales, possibly, Ireland, N Ireland and Scotland. Position of high will determine how warm.

WEEK 2

Atlantic low pressure returns to a position W or NW of Scotland. This means cooler, more unsettled conditions return to NW and W Ireland and UK with driest, warmest weather restricted to S, E England/Wales.

WEEK 3

Back and forth upper air pattern as Atlantic low pressure battles and creates tug of war with Europe high. Any real warmth will be brief in Scotland, N Ireland.

WEEK 4

Following any heat surge, the Atlantic is likely to make a comeback bringing a similar end to how the month likely begins (cool, unsettled).

THE UK & IRELAND VERDICT: Average to slightly above average in both temperature, average rainfall.

CFSv2 monthly

July 2022 500mb height anomaly

July 2022 precip anomaly

July 2022 2m temp anomaly

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Lewis Cumming

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