Europe August 2022 Outlook (Summer so far)

Written by Mark Vogan on July 31, 2022 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

We’re well beyond the half way point of meteorological summer 2022 and on the eve of August.

So far, it’s been a mixed summer with spells of ‘extreme heat’ mixed with cool, showery episodes and pressure from the Atlantic trying to press east.

Driest, warmest, sunniest the further south and east, cooler, wetter the further north and west I think with back and forth over the near continent but heat has been a big factor over Spain and France in 2022.

500mb height anomaly chart for June and July 2022.

There’s been two stand out hot spells, one in June and the other mid July. Both rewrote record books over Iberia, France, Low Countries into Germany and Alps. The July heat wave significantly impacted the UK as well as even Ireland where summer was late to arrive.

HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN DURING JUNE HEAT WAVE.

44.7C Spain **0.7C OFF JUNE RECORD**

43.4C France ** NEW JUNE RECORD**

36.9C Switzerland **TIE OF JUNE RECORD**

32.7C England (UK)

June and July both have featured several unusually deep lows. A saving grace particularly during the June heat wave. There has been some similarity to 2015 in which we witnessed both cool and wet as well as record heat. The cool and wet though is nowhere near as noteworthy in 2022 compared to 2015.

Autumn-like close to June. Heavy persistent rain now sweeping NNE over eastern Republic, through the Irish Sea & edging eastwards with gusts 40-50 mph on the coast and near 80 mph over the Highlands. pic.twitter.com/QmKfbd3Xua

— MarkVoganWeather.com (@MarkVogan) June 28, 2022

All in all I am quite happy with my forecast verses reality and as was the case last July, I guess I underdone the level of heat for the UK, not so for Iberia and France as I had expected a challenge of their records.

JUNE SCORE: 8 out of 10

How did July do???

WHAT WAS FORECAST…

Week by week breakdown

WEEK 1

Low pressure retreats north allowing higher pressure and drier, warmer weather to lift up into at least England and Wales, possibly, Ireland, N Ireland and Scotland. Position of high will determine how warm.

WEEK 2

Atlantic low pressure returns to a position W or NW of Scotland. This means cooler, more unsettled conditions return to NW and W Ireland and UK with driest, warmest weather restricted to S, E England/Wales.

WEEK 3

Back and forth upper air pattern as Atlantic low pressure battles and creates tug of war with Europe high. Any real warmth will be brief in Scotland, N Ireland.

WEEK 4

Following any heat surge, the Atlantic is likely to make a comeback bringing a similar end to how the month likely begins (cool, unsettled).

THE UK & IRELAND VERDICT: Average to slightly above average in both temperature, average rainfall.

Reality…

July was a distinctly ‘bookend’ month with cool, unsettled open and finish, hot in between but I also stated in a video on the final day of June… any surge of ‘extreme heat’ would be short lived for the UK. I believe that was a pretty good call as the extreme numbers of 32, 34, 36+ would only last a couple of days which indeed it did. I guess the 34.8C achieved in the Scottish Borders really surprised me! Perhaps the 33.0C in Phoenix Park, Dublin also.

I said both monthly and all-time heat records could be challenged and they were.

I loose points for the rainfall aspect. Drier than normal it was…

HIGHEST TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 2022

47.0C Portugal **NEW JULY RECORD & 0.4C OFF ALL-TIME RECORD SET IN 2003**

46.0C Spain

43.4C France

40.3C England/UK **NEW ALL-TIME RECORD**

JULY SCORE: 7 out of 10.

July temperature anomaly through the 25th.

Credit: Weatherbell

Past 60 days

Credit: Weatherbell

A major contributing factor to the extreme heat episodes and overall warmer-than-average conditions is likely down to the ongoing La Nina and reduced rainfall across much of Europe and driest opening 6 months to a year since 1976 for England.

Credit: BBC

Dry enhances heat and heat enhances dry.

BBC: UK weather: Driest start to year in England since 1976

MET OFFICE: Record high temperatures verified for Wales, England and Scotland

BBC: Scotland’s record temperature of 34.8C at Charterhall confirmed

Credit: Met Office

My August 2022 Verdict

Week 1 & 2

Cool becoming warmer and drier than normal for Scotland/N Ireland, Warm, dry England (little rain in driest areas from Dorset to Greater London)… HOT Iberia, France, Germany (more records threatened)… Warm to very warm Belgium, Netherlands.

The strength and eastward progress of madden julian oscillation will play a role in exact strength, position and northward extent of Azores high.

Week 3 & 4

A lot depends on MJO and whether the tropics begin to pick up within the MDR (main development region) of the Atlantic but I suspect wettest and coolest always favours Ireland and Scotland with persistent pulses of heat lifting out of the Sahara up through Iberia, France and Low Countries spreading east into Germany. Episodes will make it into England. Exactly how warm, well the dry ground over particularly the SE will help boost temperatures with possibly ‘several’ more 30C days, even peaking at 32-34C mid Aug!

In terms of rainfall, there was little to no rain across the far south of England.