The heavy rains which affected the Northern UK during October shifted south to southern areas and particularly France during November. The final 10 days turned increasingly cold.
November started extremely wet, on the heels of October…
Eastern Scotland had its wettest October on record in a series which goes back to 1836.
It was also:
???? Significantly wet elsewhere
???? Slightly milder than average
☁ Duller than averageHow was it where you are? Let’s look at the stats ????
???? 1/9
— Met Office (@metoffice) November 1, 2023
November proved record wet across France and very wet elsewhere across southern Europe extending up into the southern UK. Once again, a Greenland and Arctic blocking helped force a very active storm track to the south and with plenty of heat still within the subtropics, this imbalance produced a barrage of potent Atlantic depressions.
This 500mb geopotential height anomaly chart says it all!
The month commenced with a series of storms which took direct aim at N France. Storm Ciaran kicked things off with record low pressure for UK and wind gusts for France!
#StormCiarán produced the lowest mean sea level pressure since February 1989 across a large swathe of southern and eastern England, and across the English Channel… ???????? pic.twitter.com/GxITyJcJEG
— Dan Holley (@danholley_) November 3, 2023
???? Le pic d'intensité de la #TempêteCiaran est passé dans le #Finistère. On a mesuré jusqu'à 207 km/h à la Pointe du Raz cette nuit ! Notons aussi un record absolu à la station de #Brest avec 156 km/h ! pic.twitter.com/OSgjV9nmaS
— Guillaume Séchet (@Meteovilles) November 2, 2023
Comparisons to 1987 were made.
#Aquitaine La #tempête de cette nuit dans le #Sudouest (liée à une petite dépression secondaire circulant très rapidement) a engendré quelques dégâts (notamment des chutes d'arbres).
▶️Jusqu'à 156 km/h à 3h36 à #Biscarrosse !
Photo © Corto bar restaurant pic.twitter.com/4cHRyVR38V— Guillaume Séchet (@Meteovilles) November 3, 2023
Les comparaisons entre les #tempêtes sont tout sauf aisées, même si chacun essaye de faire des rapprochements. Le rapprochement qui revient le plus pour la #tempêteCiaran est la tempête "Ouragan de 87" du 16 octobre 1987 sur un secteur géographique assez similaire. Les dégâts… pic.twitter.com/wtlDdZP1cI
— Extrême Météo (@ExtremeMeteo) November 2, 2023
With an average of 237mm nation-wide through the first 10 days of the month, France witnessed it’s wettest such 30-day period in history!
France just went through its wettest 30-day period on record. Nationally-averaged rainfall total between October 18 and November 16 was an incredible 237 mm (9.3 inches). This comes after the country experienced its driest first half of October on record. Just absurd. pic.twitter.com/8WhumG9csd
— Nahel Belgherze (@WxNB_) November 17, 2023
Then came the cold for November’s Finale!
The MSLP anomaly over the last 1.5 months clearly indicates that the storm track has shifted southwards and extended further east than normal.
One explanation for the cold anomaly in Fennoscandia! pic.twitter.com/LTXUb3sC2Z
— Mika Rantanen (@mikarantane) November 21, 2023
Extreme blizzard conditions are currently ongoing in parts of the Odesa Oblast, Ukraine as Storm Bettina moves through the region. pic.twitter.com/PweFFAZkFS
— Nahel Belgherze (@WxNB_) November 26, 2023
Strong snowfall in Osmanpazarı city of Turkey ???????? (26.11.2023)
Video: Metin İsmailov
TELEGRAM JOIN ???? https://t.co/yY0dMMK1fg pic.twitter.com/JvuRvz9Cxy— Disaster News (@Top_Disaster) November 26, 2023
Powerful waves caused by Storm Bettina in Sochi, Russia ???????? (27.11.2023)
Video: Attentive Media
TELEGRAM JOIN ???? https://t.co/9cTkji5aZq pic.twitter.com/99v5UOAe7n— Disaster News (@Top_Disaster) November 27, 2023
Here is map of temperatures this morning at our frost hollows in Slovakia. pic.twitter.com/yhJTDxYaKK
— Julius Subovic (@JuliusSubovic) November 27, 2023
Serious amount of snow here in #Chisinau #Moldova pic.twitter.com/aGuSVq1x1d
— A Brit In Moldova (@Brit_in_Moldova) November 26, 2023
Estonia is experiencing proper winter weather. I took these images in northern #Estonia this afternoon 27.11.2023. pic.twitter.com/HjVodh2EI3
— Kairo Kiitsak ???????? (@kairokiitsak) November 27, 2023
Finland ???????? experiences it's coldest November night in 21 years! https://t.co/q8JyxrwpT1
— MarkVoganWeather.com (@MarkVogan) November 27, 2023
Today's Copernicus Sentinel-3 satellite imagery reveals extensive snow cover from Bulgaria to Ukraine post-Storm Bettina. pic.twitter.com/BAiDW1LOnc
— Nahel Belgherze (@WxNB_) November 27, 2023
A9 near Slochd Summit at 0320 this morning. @aidanweather @alexdeakin @highlandweather @SeanBattyTV @WindyWilson88 @Alonso2012F @metoffice pic.twitter.com/ynUPZtw2nh
— MarkVoganWeather.com (@MarkVogan) November 29, 2023
???? Coldest November night in 30 years in #Denmark ???????? (nationwide) with up to -15.0°C in Roskilde.
Coldest in 104 years in #Copenhagen (-7.7°C at the airport)!
Also an extremely rare ice day [Tmax < 0°C] nationwide, the first one since 1965!
Map and data from @sebastianp_dk. ???? pic.twitter.com/GkcNUH84aF— Thierry Goose (@ThierryGooseBC) November 29, 2023
❄️ Huge snowfall in western #Austria ???????? with up to 116 cm of #snow in 24 hours in the mountainous regions west of Innsbruck.
Photos taken in Langen am Arlberg at 1,200 m. ⛷️ pic.twitter.com/aOhqYTFf0H— Thierry Goose (@ThierryGooseBC) November 28, 2023
How cold did you find last night?
For some in north-west England and south-west Scotland, it was the coldest November night since 2010. pic.twitter.com/yZAVFA0oWV
— BBC Weather (@bbcweather) November 29, 2023
❄️ Although some places have seen lying #snow during the last few days, this isn't unusual in November
However, the average number of snow days in the UK in November has decreased during recent decades ???? pic.twitter.com/2No8qjefJq
— Met Office (@metoffice) December 1, 2023
November temperature anomaly
With very wet start and cold end, the November Outlook didn’t do too bad with UK winding up close to average for both temperature and rainfall.
November 2023 in the United Kingdom had an average temperature of 6.3C,0.1C below normal:it was colder than average in Scotland
Precipitations:drier than average in Scotland,wetter in EnglandAutumn average temperature was 10.8°C, 1.0C above normal.
Maps Kudos:MetOffice pic.twitter.com/yqQzEdpzwf— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) December 7, 2023
November 2023 Monthly Weather Report
Stats from the Met Office
Highest Maximum 16.7°C on 13th at Writtle (Essex, 32mAMSL)
Lowest Maximum -0.3°C on 30th at Okehampton, East Okement Farm (Devon, 408mAMSL)
Highest Minimum 13.1°C on 14th at Swanage (Dorset, 10mAMSL)
Lowest Minimum -7.7°C on 25th at Shap (Cumbria, 263mAMSL)
Lowest Grass
Minimum -11.8°C on 30th at Whitechurch (Dyfed, 129mAMSL)
Most Rainfall 124.2mm on 13th at Honister Pass (Cumbria, 358mAMSL)
Most Sunshine 8.1hr on 11th at Wittering (Cambridgeshire, 74mAMSL)
Highest Gust 68Kt 78mph on 2nd at Langdon Bay (Kent, 117mAMSL)
Highest Gust
(mountain*)
97Kt 112mph on 22nd at Cairngorm Summit (Inverness-shire, 1237mAMSL)
also on 23rd at Cairngorm Summit (Inverness-shire, 1237mAMSL)
Greatest Snow
Depth at 0900
UTC
10cm on 30th at Copley (Durham, 253mAMSL)
My Weather Station Stats for November 2023
MAX TEMP: 13.1C MIN TEMP: -3.4C WETTEST DAY: 19.81 mm PEAK GUST: 68.0 kph WET DAYS: 18 DRY DAYS: 12 MAX PRESS: 1029 mb MIN PRESS: 972 mb TOTAL RAIN: 100.43 mm AVG Temp: 4.9C
Cold Start to December!
Front 7 days of December!
The likely trigger to this end of November, start of December cold pattern for not only Europe but North America and East Asia is perhaps to some degree courtesy of a minor strat warming late October and the MJO finally wakening up from an autumn slumber.
These factors have likely led to ‘short term’ upward heat flux activity which leads to a wavier jet and consequential blocking.
A short-term kick of upward wave activity flux looks to lead to a week or two of 'disconnect' where the polar vortex is strong in the mid-upper stratosphere but a little weaker than usual lower down.
This makes it easier for blocking weather patterns to establish… pic.twitter.com/VRq93I2xPT
— James Peacock (@peacockreports) November 20, 2023
MJO about to change things again?
Warmer, stormier phases?
Could see some high impact lows for a time between Dec 6-15th as Atlantic jet roars at 200-230mph…
Note week 2 and 3 off the CFSv2 lifts the trough north and west…
This supports the return of warmer, moister Atlantic air.
I suspect a northward shift in storm track and so wetter and warmer weather returns to the UK and Ireland.
The multimodel (all models combined) for December indicates a predominantly Atlantic pattern (westerly) = mild and wet.
While I believe the above CFSv2 based on MJO’s eastward propagation, the question is where’s it’s final destination? It actually looks to be headed for phase 7! If you look at the above chart, this supports northerly blocking. I recon we start cold, turn warmer and wetter Dec 7th through 16/20th BUT could we turn colder in the week running up to Christmas?
I am going to put my neck out and suggest a transition to colder Dec 20th onwards (southward shift in storm track as blocking builds north) with chance of snowy weather ‘for parts’ of the UK and even Ireland Christmas Eve through Boxing Day!
CHANCE OF SNOW BETWEEN CHRISTMAS EVE & BOXING DAY 2023
N Scotland 70%
C/S Scotland 65%
N England/N Wales 60%
S England/S Wales 55%
Ireland/N Ire 58%
By snow chances I mean a mix of falling snow and lying snow and this is throughout the 72 hour Christmas period.
Overall, A near Average December for Both Temperature & Rainfall is expected for the UK and Ireland… Cold Scandinavia, Milder MUCH of Europe…
It’s going to be very interesting to watch the strat warming situation throughout December as this could provide consequence on our weather into January.
Wave 1
Wave 2
This warming expands the stratosphere and contracts the troposphere which forces heights rise beneath (high latitude blocking) The consequences IF there is any, would likely be New Year/early January!
FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Le Moigne Adrien @Adilemoigne
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