For the UK and Ireland, April 2024 has been a distinct tail of two halves with mild, wet first half to cooler, drier 2nd half.

Quite incredible to see several places record their wettest April on record through just the first 12 days!

???? Wondering if the rain will ever stop?

???? Several locations in the UK have provisionally recorded their wettest April on record – and there's still over 12 days to go! pic.twitter.com/2NA4pfzjAf

— Met Office (@metoffice) April 18, 2024

Overall it’s been wetter and likely slightly warmer than average for the UK and Ireland as expected.

Head across the North Sea and Channel and that mid month swing has been even more dramatic. The first half of the month will likely go down as one of the warmest if not warmest on record while the final 10 days of the month could wind up one of the coldest.

From upper 20s/low 30s to snow within 36 to 48 hours, it’s been quite the ride for some.

Following the summer like upper 20s to.. https://t.co/v0BEN3sPgR

— MarkVoganWeather.com (@MarkVogan) April 18, 2024

Significant temperature difference over northern Serbia at the moment, at 15:10h Sombor 7.5°C, Banatski Karlovac 28.5°C!

Satellite image: EUMETSAT – https://t.co/Yz8OXJ1sI3 pic.twitter.com/vg1ERdnEWE

— Milos Milic (@skomimaster) April 16, 2024

Europe past 7 days vs upcoming 7!!! Map credit: Weatherbell pic.twitter.com/UJp62x8Ikq

— MarkVoganWeather.com (@MarkVogan) April 19, 2024

April temperature anomaly.

The possible reason for this quite abrupt flip could be attributed to the early March SSW and possibly the MJO.

1/3 Finally, after some drips in the troposphere regarding the SSW at the beginning of March, troposphere coupling now seems like a reality! It took about 50 days but it seems that from April 20th there will be the long-awaited troposphere coupling! pic.twitter.com/8Xm0mxjA1s

— Christian (@Superchri90) April 11, 2024

April Forecast vs Reality

My Europe April 2024 Outlook

MET OFFICE: A wet and dull April

Could this be the beginning of the end to our multi-month wet pattern or just a blip?

It was a rather cool final week to 10 days of April.

Forecast

Actual anomaly for past 10 days up until 2nd May.

Drier than average Ire, NI and Scotland but slightly wetter central England and Wales as low pressure makes a return for the final weekend.

Could May Be Our First Drier Than Average Month In Months?

The CFSv2 has a dry west, wet east thanks to a banana shaped high over a south-central Europe trough.

The NMME shows a drier UK.

As we head into late spring, the jet stream reaches it’s weakest state on average of the year and so pin pointing future weather for UK, Ireland and W Europe becomes all the more challenging.

May starts off wet across England, Wales, Ireland, but drier for Northern Ireland and Scotland thanks to high over low pressure with a weak, meandering jet stream (blocky pattern with lows or cut off lows trapped beneath).

However, higher pressure is expected to build over much of the UK beyond May 7/8 through mid month.

GFS ensemble shows that low pressure SSW of UK and Ireland through the first week of May likely giving way to higher pressure into the 2nd week. E winds mean cooler east, warmer west with big day by day W-E contrasts.

As we head into the day 16-20 off the GFS ensemble and 2nd half of the month, note heights return to neutral with stronger heights refocused over S Europe, this may suggest the potential return of the Atlantic and possibly a more mobile pattern with lows making a return.

Then the model suggests higher pressure returning to a more northerly position with low pressure trapped underneath bringing the return of wetter, more thundery weather for southern Ireland and UK.

In terms of rainfall distribution, we will have a wet opening week across S Ireland, England and Wales, drier further north across the N Rep of Ire, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

The pattern looks likely to turn drier for most week 2 and perhaps extending into week 3 but as the pattern may flip from high over low to likely low over high, rainfall should increase.

CFSv2 for May 2024

Overall, I expect an average to slightly above average temperature with average to below average rainfall for both UK and Ireland. However, while the UK as a whole may be average to drier than average, southern UK could well be wetter while north drier…

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