La Nina continues to cool the lower troposphere

The ongoing La Nina and warm and cool ocean anomalies within the northern basins have clearly driven the lower tropospheric temperature. Strong warmth within the LT (lower troposphere) has shown up above the abnormally warm N Pacific and Atlantic as well as over much of northern Eurasia with no warming above the entire equatorial belt as can be viewed in the graphics below.

Current SSTA’s

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Global SSTA difference over past 12 months

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 14 months

YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST 
2021 01  0.12  0.34 -0.09 -0.08  0.36  0.50 -0.52
2021 02  0.20  0.32  0.08 -0.14 -0.65  0.07 -0.27
2021 03 -0.01  0.13 -0.14 -0.29  0.59 -0.78 -0.79
2021 04 -0.05  0.05 -0.15 -0.28 -0.02  0.02  0.29
2021 05  0.08  0.14  0.03  0.06 -0.41 -0.04  0.02
2021 06 -0.01  0.31 -0.32 -0.14  1.44  0.63 -0.76
2021 07  0.20  0.33  0.07  0.13  0.58  0.43  0.80
2021 08  0.17  0.27  0.08  0.07  0.33  0.83 -0.02
2021 09  0.25  0.18  0.33  0.09  0.67  0.02  0.37
2021 10  0.37  0.46  0.27  0.33  0.84  0.63  0.06
2021 11  0.08  0.11  0.06  0.14  0.50 -0.42 -0.29
2021 12  0.21  0.27  0.15  0.03  1.63  0.01 -0.06
2022 01  0.03  0.06  0.00 -0.24 -0.13  0.68  0.09
2022 02  0.00  0.01 -0.02 -0.24 -0.05 -0.31 -0.50

December 2021

Credit: Dr Roy Spenser

January 2022

Credit: University of Alabama-Huntsville

Credit: Dr Roy Spenser

February 2022

February has been interesting. A strong stratospheric and tropospheric polar vortex has promoted a significant cooling over Canada, Greenland and North Atlantic which has displaced the warm pool over the Atlantic further south.

Credit: Dr Roy Spenser

Given the trend, continued La Nina dominance and prospects of a strat-trop warm induced cooling into spring, I suspect the LT temperature will drop below average in March, April and possibly even May before a rise this summer.

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: MIT

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