Strong Polar Vortex Cools North Atlantic… Cold April Ahead For Europe As Vortex Breaks?

Written by on March 16, 2022 in Rest of Europe, Rest of World with 0 Comments

A lack of ‘weather’ during much of the past 12 months likely contributed to a build-up of warmth throughout the North and even wider Atlantic basin and given other external drivers, this aided another very mild winter throughout Europe (see previous article).

However, a near record strong mean zonal wind and cold strat-trop polar vortex during February has all but driven down SST’s between Canada and Ireland thanks to strong, persistent jet stream winds and deep lows tracking west to east. Constant storminess during particularly a 3-week period has allowed a significant amount of upwelling across the North Atlantic.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

7-day change

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Looks like more cooling than warming throughout the world’s ocean basin in the last 12 months for sure.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

With the strong +AO/NAO winter and very warm Atlantic, it’s been a warm opening 2.5 months across Europe.

Credit: Weatherbell

Could the pattern be about to reverse?

It’s one thing to see major stratospheric warming at 10mb but quite another at 50mb. The warming is coming at 50mb over the next 10 days.

CFSv2 weeklies… not good for Ukraine. Also, the cold comes just in time for our energy bills going up by 54% April 1st.

Credit: Weatherbell

Credit: Weatherbell

Credit: Weatherbell

Credit: Weatherbell

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