Following a record strong/cold stratospheric polar vortex, major weakening/warming has been ongoing. This warming commenced within the UPPER levels of the stratosphere and has been gradually working it’s way down towards the troposphere.
Check out the rise at 10mb
Even more striking at 30mb
Here is the latest temperature within the LOWER stratosphere!
Credit: UCAR
The downward energy transfer is now responding to the 500mb level with AO/NAO falling to it’s most negative since December 2021.
Essentially what this means is that instead of having low pressure and cold bundled within the arctic and high latitudes like we observed through much of the winter, higher pressure and warming is replacing LP/cold over the Arctic and forcing very cold air down through the layers of the atmosphere from stratosphere into the troposphere (where our weather is) and this then shifts south into the mid latitudes.
The pattern responds to the above, this week!
As the high deflates over the UK, it reforms WNW and opens the door to arctic air drilling south over the UK and Ireland.
Let’s keep a close eye on the development of low pressure along the cold front as it sweeps south, this could make for an interesting Wed-Thu for southern and southeastern England.
Credit: wxcharts.com
Credit: wxcharts.com
Credit: wxcharts.com
Southward progress of arctic air.
Credit: wxcharts.com
Credit: wxcharts.com
Credit: wxcharts.com
Credit: wxcharts.com
Arctic air in itself may not be cold enough to bring LOW LEVEL snow over SE England (esp low level) due to strength of sun BUT DYNAMIC COOLING as the low develops, could do the business in forcing cold aloft downwards. It would be a short lived event for sure if it were to materialise.
Credit: wxcharts.com
Credit: wxcharts.com
Credit: wxcharts.com
Credit: wxcharts.com
Snow showers look most likely to stick over the high ground of anywhere in Scotland, Pennines, Midlands and high ground of south and southeast England but a lot depends on just how cold the air is Wed through Friday as to whether we can get lying snow all the way to sea level. Summer strength sun will make it tough for daytime lying at sea level I think but the low ‘could’ bring surprises.
Overnights, we could get surprise coverings even within London.
Credit: wxcharts.com
Credit: wxcharts.com
Credit: wxcharts.com
Recent Comments