Tag: polar vortex

Solar Maximum/Minimum Connection To + or -AO/NAO

Solar Maximum/Minimum Connection To + or -AO/NAO

In my recent 2 part video on the pros and cons of the upcoming winter, I discussed the connection between solar maximums and minimums and behavior of the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO). To reinforce my point, here’s a great chart I regrettably didn’t show on the video, it the latest solar cycle chart […]

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265 mph Jet Stream powers 930mb bomb off Greenland while Ciara rapidly deepens on approach to UK/Ireland!

Written by on February 8, 2020 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
265 mph Jet Stream powers 930mb bomb off Greenland while Ciara rapidly deepens on approach to UK/Ireland!

Thanks to the collision of arctic and tropical air over North America and the North Atlantic, the jet stream crossing the pond has intensified to supersonic speed, creating the perfect incubator for rapid cyclogenesis and formation of the Atlantic’s deepest depressions in several years. A visible satellite image captured this morning shows a storm system […]

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Europe January 2020 Outlook (Look back a Nov/Dec 19)

Written by on January 6, 2020 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe January 2020 Outlook (Look back a Nov/Dec 19)

November and autumn 2019 ended cold across Western and Northern Europe but winter’s opening month was largely milder than normal across much of the continent. November as a whole was colder than normal from Morocco, Iberia up through the British Isles and Ireland to Scandinavia. It was likely coldest for the UK since 2016 but […]

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Moline, Ill, Coldest ever night is set in snowiest ever January

Written by on February 2, 2019 in United States of America with 0 Comments
Moline, Ill, Coldest ever night is set in snowiest ever January

It’s been quite the month for Moline, Illinois setting not one but two very significant weather records. Situated on a bluff between the banks of the Mississippi and Rock River. It’s part of the Quad Cities metro which sits on the Illinois-Iowa border. Davenport sits on the Iowa side while Moline sits on the Illinois […]

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US: White Carpet Begins to Get Laid In Preparation of The Arctic Emptying South!

Written by on January 15, 2019 in United States of America with 0 Comments
US: White Carpet Begins to Get Laid In Preparation of The Arctic Emptying South!

A major cross country snow system during the past weekend produced record snow from St Louis to DC and this shall be followed by another three over the next 7 days. GFS snow forecast through the next 10 days. This stormy and increasingly colder pattern is the beginning to the much anticipated harsher 2nd half […]

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Huge snowfall buries Alps as upper level winds turn easterly allowing Siberian air to head westwards

Written by on January 7, 2019 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Huge snowfall buries Alps as upper level winds turn easterly allowing Siberian air to head westwards

The much anticipated colder, snowier pattern has emerged and progresses south, southwestwards into central and southern Europe. Stopping it from spreading westwards is a very strong ridge anchored over the British Isles which reached record strength as we greeted 2019. This pressure pattern has resulted in a rather mundane Christmas to New Year period here […]

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SSWE has occurred, we now await split & downward response, CFSv2 sluggish with -AO/NAO through Jan 25

SSWE has occurred, we now await split & downward response, CFSv2 sluggish with -AO/NAO through Jan 25

The sudden stratospheric warming has now crucially progressed across the pole and headed towards the Davis Straits as we entered 2019. A split in the vortex is expected over the next day or so. Now we all know that there’s a delay or lag between the initial SSWE at 10mb and by the time the […]

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Cold 2nd half to Winter 2018-19? MJO expected to enter cold phases as SSWE causes vortex split!

Cold 2nd half to Winter 2018-19? MJO expected to enter cold phases as SSWE causes vortex split!

The pattern has been mild across most of the continents of the Northern Hemisphere with the aid of a continued amplified MJO progressing through phases 2,3,4 and 5 which supports a neutral to positive AO/NAO. Though NOTHING is certain until we see the pattern evolve, there are more favorable atmospheric drivers/signals/components coming together which supports […]

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MJO Driving the US Pattern and Sudden Stratospheric Warming?

Written by on December 19, 2018 in United States of America with 1 Comment
MJO Driving the US Pattern and Sudden Stratospheric Warming?

The persistent thunderstorm activity over the Indian Ocean has been a strong phase 3 indicator of the MJO, a warm phase for the Lower 48. As this convection weakens, we’re going through phases 4 and next week, into 5. As you can see below, phase 4 remains warm but 5 shows cooling out West. Note […]

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If models prove correct with late month SSWE, a 1979 or 2010 style January-February is on the table!

If models prove correct with late month SSWE, a 1979 or 2010 style January-February is on the table!

The latest GFS ensemble continues to show an end of the month SSWE which could make for a very interesting January ahead. There’s still plenty of room of disappointment but our chances for cold is increasing. Note the temperature difference at 10mb over the Arctic between now and January 1st. Rapid warming throughout the depth […]

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