Tag: stratospheric warming

SSWE has occurred, we now await split & downward response, CFSv2 sluggish with -AO/NAO through Jan 25

SSWE has occurred, we now await split & downward response, CFSv2 sluggish with -AO/NAO through Jan 25

The sudden stratospheric warming has now crucially progressed across the pole and headed towards the Davis Straits as we entered 2019. A split in the vortex is expected over the next day or so. Now we all know that there’s a delay or lag between the initial SSWE at 10mb and by the time the […]

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Cold 2nd half to Winter 2018-19? MJO expected to enter cold phases as SSWE causes vortex split!

Cold 2nd half to Winter 2018-19? MJO expected to enter cold phases as SSWE causes vortex split!

The pattern has been mild across most of the continents of the Northern Hemisphere with the aid of a continued amplified MJO progressing through phases 2,3,4 and 5 which supports a neutral to positive AO/NAO. Though NOTHING is certain until we see the pattern evolve, there are more favorable atmospheric drivers/signals/components coming together which supports […]

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MJO Driving the US Pattern and Sudden Stratospheric Warming?

Written by on December 19, 2018 in United States of America with 1 Comment
MJO Driving the US Pattern and Sudden Stratospheric Warming?

The persistent thunderstorm activity over the Indian Ocean has been a strong phase 3 indicator of the MJO, a warm phase for the Lower 48. As this convection weakens, we’re going through phases 4 and next week, into 5. As you can see below, phase 4 remains warm but 5 shows cooling out West. Note […]

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Stratospheric Warming Provides Stunning, Rare Display Of Nacreous Cloud Over UK & Ireland

Stratospheric Warming Provides Stunning, Rare Display Of Nacreous Cloud Over UK & Ireland

In the wake of wicked storm Henry which produced 100 mph winds on the exposed but low lying Tay Road Bridge and 149 mph over Cairngorm Summit Monday, northerly winds on the depression’s rear has helped force exceptionally cold air within the lower stratosphere (50,000+ feet) with the southern extension of the polar vortex dropping down over the UK. Clear, cold […]

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943mb UK Storm Opens Door To Cold 2nd Half Of January! (Coldest In 2 Years)

943mb UK Storm Opens Door To Cold 2nd Half Of January! (Coldest In 2 Years)

The storm is whipping pretty good just now here and for some, it’s downright damaging! Top gusts have been clocked at 111 mph on exposed Aonach Mor summit, located E of Fort William, 105 mph on Cairngorm and even down in Cumbria, gusts of 101 mph have been recorded on Great Dun Fell. The A9 linking Perth with Inverness […]

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More Storms, Increased Snow Threat This Week, 10mb Atlantic Warming To Spark -AO/NAO = Colder Europe!

More Storms, Increased Snow Threat This Week, 10mb Atlantic Warming To Spark -AO/NAO = Colder Europe!

Behind today’s storm passing to our north, we see much colder (Canadian-Arctic) air sweeping across the UK/Ireland with increased snow threats. We can expect significant accumulation above 150 metres with smaller accumulation down to lower levels across Ireland, much of Scotland and N England later today through tomorrow. Surface charts show low thicknesses (representing colder air) with 522 […]

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Sub-Tropical Jet Stream Soaks UK, Models Struggling With Strong Strat Warming…

Written by on December 22, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Winter 2014/15 with 0 Comments
Sub-Tropical Jet Stream Soaks UK, Models Struggling With Strong Strat Warming…

It’s been a very wet weekend and start to Christmas week over the UK thanks to a stuck pattern with connection to the tropics. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The reason for such persistent, heavy rains is simple, we’ve a major split in the jet coming off North America. The N branch lifts north and the southern branch drops […]

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WESTERN EUROPE: GFS Charts Show Similarity To Dec 2010

Written by on December 18, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Winter 2014/15 with 0 Comments
WESTERN EUROPE: GFS Charts Show Similarity To Dec 2010

Well I was on the road from lunchtime yesterday till the early hours of this morning and when I got up, I was half expecting to come on here this morning to see a warmer run of the GFS for Christmas. Well that’s not the case and continues to show a cold Christmas and even colder […]

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US PATTERN: Strong Strat Warming Above Reflects New Surge Of Cold Underneath For Late December

Written by on December 15, 2014 in United States of America, Winter 2014/15 with 0 Comments
US PATTERN: Strong Strat Warming Above Reflects New Surge Of Cold Underneath For Late December

Despite taking yesterday off, there’s no change in the medium and long range idea. The Arctic Oscillation is ready to go back negative as heights build north. A ‘bridging ridge’ between Alaska and Greenland towards the end of the month could lead to a major cold outbreak for the Lower 48 and not just a cold […]

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WESTERN EUROPE: Confidence Growing Over Colder-Than-Normal January, February

Written by on December 15, 2014 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Winter 2014/15 with 0 Comments
WESTERN EUROPE: Confidence Growing Over Colder-Than-Normal January, February

I am becoming increasingly optimistic and excited about the end of December, beginning of January period as the models keep showing what all winter lovers want to see, a -NAO/AO with blocking highs over both Alaska and Greenland which hook up resulting in twin negatives underneath. IMAGE CREDIT: William Smith [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Up till now we’ve […]

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