Europe Summer 2022 Forecast

Written by Mark Vogan on May 31, 2022 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Welcome to my 12th annual UK, Europe summer forecast. As always, when compiling this forecast for the upcoming June-August period there are multiple factors which I have taken into consideration. They include the past winter pattern, type of spring just observed as well as other factors including current ENSO state, global and regional sea surface temperature anomalies and even the current solar cycle.

Glance back to Summer 2021

We have a very different ocean-atmosphere setup as we step into meteorological summer 2022 compared to last year as the below charts show.

Global SST anomaly

May 30, 2021

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

May 31, 2022

Credit: NOAA

Spring 2021 was cold and dry following a cold 2nd half to winter. Spring 2022 has been warm and dry following a warm winter.

Year to date EUROPE temperature anomaly! Wow!

2021

Credit: WeatherBell

2022

Credit: WeatherBell

A complete reversal!

Quick and dirty recap on last summer…

Summer 2021 was quite mixed for the UK and Ireland with hot episodes setting new records in July but there was also quite wet weather at times with August an overall cool, wet month but a warm June, July and end to August led to an inevitable warmer than average summer with hottest on record for Europe.

June was decent across Northern Europe and UK, cooler and wetter across Iberia, France extending up into England and Wales.

Summer 2022

If one was to go by the current solar state, the ongoing La Nina, warm east, northeast Atlantic and even low spring rainfall, all similar (not exact) to 2011, I would sway towards a cool and dry summer.

Credit: D Hathaway

However, 2011 that particular summer turned out to be the UK’s coolest in 18 years, I don’t see it going that cool, although more mixed looks increasingly likely! The La Nina in 2011 was strong but unlike this year, summer 2011 came off a cold start/warm end to winter 2010-11 with a MUCH colder SST backdrop. Earth’s ocean and atmosphere is a good deal warmer now than then.

Credit: Dr Roy Spenser

Also similar to 2011 but again, not exact, spring rainfall has been low with an uptick during May. Long term modelling suggests a return to a drier, high pressure dominated pattern as we enter June with an overall drier June. I question that however given low solar, warm Atlantic which can lead to lower heights over the Atlantic which tries to press into Western Europe.

I believe summer 2022 will be another warm one for much of MAINLAND Europe, particularly south but it could become quite wet (at times) for Atlantic facing countries stretching from Iberia to Norway including UK and Ireland. I think we could see a fight between hot, high pressure dominated conditions over many parts of Europe verses Atlantic low pressure trying to push east. This clash could prove very stormy and indeed wet at times. Flash flood events are possible.

The type of ocean-atmosphere setup could make for high volatility with big swings between unusual cool days and unusual warmth!

There is potential for a 2011, maybe even 2007/2012 type summer…

Month-by-month breakdown

JUNE

Pointing to a given pattern at a specific period of time is near impossible but my hunch for is for spells of hot southerly winds blowing out of Africa up through Iberia, France and the UK but primarily S/E with Icelandic troughiness always threatening Scotland/N Ireland/Rep of Ireland (esp W/NW) with frontal rain and cool conditions. The Mediterranean and Balkans see some quite extreme heat this year.

UK/IRELAND: NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURE, POTENTIALLY WETTER THAN NORMAL

JULY

July I’m struggling more with as I think it could truly go either way with fairly lengthy spells of hot and dry but also cool and wet like we observed in 2020 and in the more extreme case, 2007, 2012. Like I expect with June, perhaps another mixed month with short lived warm/hot spells interspersed with cool, wet days.

UK/IRELAND: NEAR AVERAGE/SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE, NEAR AVERAGE RAINFALL

AUGUST

August I believe looks more unsettled and could threaten a COOLER, WETTER than normal month from Ireland to Sweden, hot and dry from Iberia to Germany, Poland where record heat is possible.

UK/IRELAND: BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE, ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL

Tropics could play key role later

The movement and strength of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) will indeed likely play a role in shaping the type of pattern we see.

Also, worth taking into account, the Atlantic hurricane season and if it really get’s going mid and late summer, transfer of heat from low to mid latitudes could play a significant role in hot and dry or cool and wet, especially with systems that recurve.

WHEN COMPILING THE JUNE-AUGUST PERIOD, AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF EUROPE, WELL ABOVE THROUGH THE MEDITERRANEAN.

WESTERN EUROPE INCLUDING UK AND IRELAND I EXPECT TO WIND UP NEAR AVERAGE

RAINFALL-WISE, NEAR AVERAGE UK, SCANDINAVIA, ABOVE AVERAGE REP OF IRELAND, POSSIBLY EVEN IBERIA.