For many, May 2022 will go down as a cool, showery and somewhat drab month, disappointing in terms of sun and lack of real heat. For others, a decent month, perhaps a typical one.

However… believe it or not and this is based on data for the entire UK, according to Met Office meteorologist Dan Harris, May 2022 looks to be on track to TIE 2017 and 2008 as warmest on record! I agree, that’s hard to take but as stated in Saturday’s video, this is based on the data for the whole UK and it looks be the OVERNIGHT temperatures that have tipped the balance in driving up the mean average temperature for the month to a record tying 12.1C.

#May2022 looks very much like it's going to be an outlier in terms of #UK #climate

Current estimates (albeit with 4 days to go) have it as joint warmest on record (= with 2017 and 2008), and 7th dullest on record.

Records go back to 1884 (#temperature) and 1919 (#sunshine) pic.twitter.com/1vb0nulKCo

— Dan Harris (@RoostWeather) May 28, 2022

As stated by Sryan Bruen, May has been ‘unusually westerly’ as it is in fact the most ‘easterly’ month of the entire year.

A mean high centred over Spain and France with the UK and Ireland on it’s northern flank explains the ‘westerly’ component and also explains the frequent blankets of cloud and therefore ‘warm nights’.

The very warm North Atlantic too likely explains the reason for such warmth in a seemingly cool month.

Mean heights

Air being drawn off a warm North Atlantic likely has boosted nighttime mins more so than usual.

Indeed the abnormal warm waters has led to a very warm opening 5 months to 2022 for not only the UK and Ireland but Europe.

Last summer of course produced some tremendous heat across the continent and in fact 2021 was Europe’s hottest summer on record. We also observed a new Europe heat record. It will be interesting to see where the pattern goes this summer.

It would be easy to make the assumption that the warmth of 2022 thus far will simply continue with records melting from one end of the continent to the other, however, like we’ve seen with May and the curve balls thrown in, NOTHING is straightforward and I don’t believe it’s going to be clear cut.

June Outlook

Given this is a June Outlook, I shall stick to discussing June and like May, there are going to be surprises. Right now, there is heat building over Africa and it’s pulsating back and forth into Iberia. Currently it’s high pressure over Iceland that’s stopping the northward progress of this heat from reaching the UK and I believe it will make an appearance further north quite soon. The question is, where further north? Ireland, Scotland or Scandinavia?

Remember, a warm Atlantic can lead to troughiness, low pressure and increased rainfall. Low pressure too close to the UK can lead to heat lifting north over the near continent, missing us.

Warmth will tease it’s way north into the Jubilee weekend but it’s coming up against resistance with high pressure off Ireland.

I believe with the shift of the madden julian oscillation down in the tropics, we will begin to loose northern blocking and week 2-3 could turn increasingly warm if not hot for the UK, the CFSv2 weeklies see the reduction in heights towards Iceland week 2.

Week 3 sniffs a trough edging close to Ireland which could keep the heat east of ‘most of the UK’.

So, week 1 is cool, week 2 flips, particularly for England, Wales, week 3 depends upon how close an Atlantic trough gets but there’s potential even for Scotland and N Ireland.

week 4 looks VERY warm but we shall see about that.

Rainfall-wise, a lot is going to depend on trough position. The CFSv2 keeps the Atlantic trough west and Europe high strong enough for drier than normal through much of the month. However, we know there’s going to be troughiness close by to generate showers, storms and even dreary low pressure days.

There is also opportunity for Atlantic fronts to tap some of that added Atlantic warmth and bring heavy flooding rains at times. Yep, I’ve pretty much given you every possible scenario and that’s because we could have a fine line between hot weather and flash flooding.

Tags: featured, monthly-outlook