Europe February 2022 Outlook (Winter so far!)

Written by on February 1, 2022 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Winter 2021-22 So Far!

Back in July I began to build my 2021-22 winter forecast. I’ve spent many an hour studying and taking into consideration ALL the global and regional parameters, players and drivers currently in place at the time and came up the an eventual forecast at the beginning of December.

Based on my findings, I believed THIS winter ‘should’ be colder than average with plenty of high latitude blocking and cold within the mid latitudes.

This was based on…

  1. Period of 18-24 months AFTER the solar minimum (should present greater probability for high lat blocking)
  2. Easterly QBO (can help slow westerlies)
  3. Colder Pacific (esp N Pacific/Gulf of Alaska)
  4. East based La Nina
  5. Negative IOD

The few nagging aspects which did get taken into account…

  1. Very warm Atlantic Basin (esp across the North)
  2. No ‘classic’ warm-cold-warm tripole was present in N Atlantic
  3. Earth’s ocean and atmosphere is warmer compared to 2008-10 following previous solar min

Unless we have some sort of miracle during February (which I doubt) then this winter will go down as one of my more disappointing forecasts and really makes me wonder about the future of even attempting to forecast into the long range period.

It would seem, in our warming world (Co2 driven or otherwise), the more typical drivers don’t appear to provide the same type of indication of a particular setup compared to a time when our ocean and atmosphere was cooler.

Perhaps I’m wrong and jumping the gun, maybe next year will be ‘the one’ but it kind of feels like ‘the one’, i.e, 2009-10, is being pushed back and is becoming a more rarer, more extreme winter in a warmer world. It’s becoming harder and harder to see a 2009-10 return.

12 years have gone by since our beloved 2009-10 winter and since then a solar maximum and minimum has occurred and ultimately we’ve not come close to a winter resembling 09-10. Year after year, our winters seem to becoming milder but not necessarily stormier!

Looks like last winter wasn’t so much the teaser, but ‘the winter of the decade’ but then again we have next year with the prospects of an El Nino which would make things interesting given the back to back La Nina’s of the past 24 months should have cooled the planet some by next autumn ahead of the next solar maximum due in a couple of years from now.

Anyway, back to this winter, sure it was a cold December for Scandinavia, Western Russia and even slightly below normal for Scotland, warm for the US. Then in January, we flipped the pattern on it’s head as you can see from the below graphics. Yep, there actually has been blocking, in December it was over Greenland BUT, without extending the block southwards into the subtropical Atlantic, the westerlies simply run underneath and that kept warmer air streaming into SW Europe including England, Wales, Ireland and Northern Ireland.

As for January, the Azores high has been like a rock! Still, even on February 1st, it remains strong between the Azores and S Ireland. The big difference is that thanks to cross polar flow, colder air has made into into the Lower 48, driving a strong Atlantic jet and in turn introduced storms to the UK pattern. This can all but attributed to the coupling of the stratosphere and troposphere with warming at 10hpa pushing cold from Siberia into Canada.

However, it’s not a locked in cold over the central and eastern US as the La Nina ridge is fighting the incoming cold over the Southeast. Recall how warm it got in December? That’s when the Nina ridge had little to no resistance from cold and kept pumping tropical air north.

As expected from back in mid-January, based on the strong polar vortex and it’s coupling between stratosphere and troposphere, we could end January with at least a couple of named storms. Well you know what just happened!!

Northern Hemisphere temp anomaly

December 2021

Credit: Weatherbell.com

January 2022

Credit: Weatherbell.com

Europe temp anomaly

December 2021

Credit: Weatherbell.com

January 2022

Credit: Weatherbell.com

February 2022 Outlook

In order to forecast February we best continue looking above!

Though not perfectly connected, the below 10hpa temperature profile quite nicely reflects the tropospheric pattern beneath with cold continuing to travel away from Siberia and into Canada (note 10hpa warmth over Siberia) which fuels the Greenland/Iceland trough and Atlantic storm train into Western Europe.

Mid Feb has the potential to turn very stormy indeed with perhaps the deepest lows in several years blasting the UK and Ireland.

Credit: wxcharts.com

As we progress into winter’s final month, I don’t see much change to what’s happening now.

One aspect which needs consideration would be the MJO and if this shifts, this may help alter the mid and high latitude setup but I believe a strong PV will rule the show and any cold for the UK and Ireland is fleeting.

Persistent Atlantic influence could make February 2022 one of the warmest for Europe!

Though February’s opening days may be tamer than January’s closing days, it remains unsettled with wind and rain running over the top of the Azores high into Scotland.

GFS ensemble 5-day means

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

As can be seen in the 6-10 day, we may see the Azores high build northward and settle the UK and Ireland down. This would bring a similar setup to earlier in January with the return of cooler days and frosty/foggy nights.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Warmth remains

Day 1-5

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

6-10

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: CallanishDigitalDesign @CallanishDD

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